http://www.rlyw.net/index.php en sgatbtf@gmail.com Copyright 2013 2013-05-24T19:45:40+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees_28-18_rays_24-22_friday_may_24_2013_710pm http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees_28-18_rays_24-22_friday_may_24_2013_710pm#When:18:45:40Z NYY:David Phelps (26, RHP, 2-2, 3.83) vs. TBR:Roberto Hernandez (32, RHP, 2-4, 5.24) Lineups Yankees Brett Gardner(L), CF: .254/.326/.387, 0.8 bWAR Robinson Cano(L), 2B: .289/.335/.556, 1.5 bWAR Vernon Wells(R), LF: .287/.341/.506, 1.5 bWAR Travis Hafner(L), DH: .270/.386/.541, 0.7 bWAR Curtis Granderson(L), RF: .269/.321/.423, 0.2 bWAR David Adams(R), 3B: .308/.333/.615, 0.1 bWAR Lyle Overbay(L), 1B: .250/.286/.467, 0.7 bWAR Jayson Nix(R), SS: .222/.299/.274, 0.3 bWAR Chris Stewart(R), C: .265/.307/.397, 0.4 bWAR Lineup Total: .266/.327/.460, 6.2 bWAR St. Petersburg Matthew Joyce(L), RF: .252/.338/.488, 0.2 bWAR Ben Zobrist(S), 2B: .251/.342/.383, 0.5 bWAR Luke Scott(L), DH: .291/.414/.473, 0.4 bWAR Evan Longoria(R), 3B: .335/.399/.585, 2.2 bWAR James Loney(L), 1B: .350/.405/.497, 1.3 bWAR Kelly Johnson(L), LF: .265/.336/.492, 0.7 bWAR Sam Fuld(L), CF: .177/.271/.210, -0.1 bWAR Jose Lobaton(S), C: .237/.301/.368, 0.2 bWAR Yunel Escobar(R), SS: .211/.277/.352, -0.1 bWAR Lineup Total: .271/.347/.446, 5.3 bWAR I was going to talk about how Fausto Carmona may have changed his name but he has been unable to change the fact that he stinks.  Then I realized he’s pitching against the Yankees in a place where they never win so I figured I should not mention it.  Except I think I just did. The Yankees have not lost three games in a row yet this year.  Since they are probably the worst team in baseball and bad teams lose games and a loss tonight would be their third straight it certainly seems like everything points to a Yankee loss tonight. Liveblog 2013-05-24T18:45:40+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/nj.com_mccullough_michael_pineda_takes_another_step_toward_eventual_yankees http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/nj.com_mccullough_michael_pineda_takes_another_step_toward_eventual_yankees#When:13:32:54Z The two men are twinned in Yankees lore: Jesus Montero, the hulking catcher once thought to be a formidable slugger in pinstripes, and Michael Pineda, the promising young starter thought to one day headline the team’s rotation. The link between the two became indelible when the Yankees traded Montero to Seattle in exchange for Pineda before the 2012 season. At the time, both were considered potential superstars. Now each is a reclamation project. On the day the Mariners demoted Montero to Triple-A Tacoma, Pineda took another halting step toward his much-anticipated debut for the Yankees. Pineda, a 24-year-old righty, threw five innings in an extended-spring game at the team’s minor-league complex in Tampa, Fla. His fastball velocity sat at 93 mph, general manager Brian Cashman said. After one more game at the complex, Pineda could begin a rehabilitation assignment, a 30-day jaunt that could lead him to the majors. “I’m happy so far that he’s healthy,” Cashman said. “But he’s obviously got a ways to go. We’ll see. But so far so good.” Pineda averaged around 94 mph with his fastball in his only season in MLB in 2011 so seeing that he’s sitting at 93 is pretty encouraging.  Of course, he can’t hit so he doesn’t really help the Yankees in their biggest area of weakness, but I’m starting to get excited about his potential return. I don’t know that Jesus Montero would have failed to develop the way he has if he was in the Bronx instead of Seattle, and I think it’s still too soon to label him a bust, but at this point it seems like the Yankees have a reasonably good chance to end up “winning” the trade that a lot of us were less than enthused about. Players, Jesus Montero, Michael Pineda 2013-05-24T13:32:54+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/the_good_and_bad_of_oppenheimer_not_the_guy_with_the_bombs http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/the_good_and_bad_of_oppenheimer_not_the_guy_with_the_bombs#When:14:51:49Z Since June 2006, Damon Oppenheimer has been in charge of the amateur draft for the Yankees. A lot of people aren't impressed with how he's done in that time. He certainly hasn't won on every bet, but he's also done some good things in that timeframe. Mike Axis at RAB has already done a review of the first round picks under Oppenheimer. So I decided instead to take a broader look, and try to identify some areas where Oppenheimer has done well, some areas where he's failed. Of course, success or failure can still be subjective. We can all agree that David Robertson - a 17th round pick and the right hand of God - is a success. How about Mark Melancon? To me, a ninth round pick who has been in the big leagues for 5 years (and counting) is a definite success, while some may not be impressed with 1.5 WAR. And of course I'm the optimist; if you want a negative article write your own! Originally I had planned on doing a series of things that Oppenheimer does well vs what he does poorly. However, when thinking about it, seems to me it can easily be summed up in the thing he has (so far) done well, and not well. The Good Originally this was going to be a section on college relief pitchers. But actually, so far it's been college players. The aforementioned Robertson, but also Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, David Phelps, and many others. Most of them of course are pitchers, but even most of his successes with position players have been college draftees, though they've been bit players who don't have much of a future (David Adams hopes to add some success there). So in short, college players - in particular college relief pitchers - have been a position of great success. Oppenheimer has taken a lot of mid-to-late round picks, and turned them into useful college relievers, with one All Star and some potential shut-down players. He's also found some solid starters/swingmen, including Kennedy, Phelps, and looking like Adam Warren. Position players haven't been as good, but some of the few position players to make the big leagues have been of the college variety. The Bad This one should be obvious. If college players have been good, prep players have been bad. Unless you count Drew Storen - drafted in the 34th round in 2007 but didn't sign - Zach McCallister is the current bWAR winner of HS draftees...at .1. Now it's not surprising the high school players have a lower success rate than college players. That's the nature of the game - high schoolers offer the upside, college players offer the certainty. However, you do need to have SOME success with high-schoolers. Because it's rare to get a cornerstone player out of college. Not impossible, but pretty close when you're drafting in the 20's or lower every year. Now, the reasons for why are harder to fathom. Do the Yankees not deploy good scouts for high-schoolers? Is Openheimer not good at processing the information? Or could it even be what many suspect - that the Yankees aren't good at developing players, so the more-polished collegiates are the ones who are likely to succeed? Or...is it possible we're just impatient? 2007 the top high school pick was Austin Romine, who is just now starting to show dividends. 2008 has Corban Joseph - potentialy 4A, potential average starter - among others. 2009 and 2010, the prep picks are starting to get to AA, and put themselves in the picture for playing time in 2014. The Ugly Couldn't help it, so I added a third. The ugly has been first round picks, which of course is his most important job. Including supplemental picks, Oppenheimer has had nine first round picks. After his first two big successess - IPK and Joba combining for 17.5 bWAR, neither is yet 29 - it hasn't been very good. Brackman complete bust, Cole didn't sign, Bleich bust (so far), Culver nearing bust, Bichette right behind. After that first year, the "success" is Heathcott, the oft-injured alcoholic (and potentially Hensley, if they grow him a new hip). On the one hand, a 2/9 success rate - with none of the picks higher than 28 - could be seen as a success. On the other hand, having no success since 2006 is a failure. If Heathcott lives up to his talent, or any of Bichette, Culver, or Hensley break out, a 3/9 is actually quite good. I definitely don't think Oppenheimer should be judged entirely on his first round...but it is a big part of it. So in conclusion...I think Oppenheimer has been good at drafting college players, in particular finding some gems with college relievers in later rounds. He hasn't yet shown to be good at drafting prep players, however, the jury is still out as some of the high schoolers have just started graduating to the majors, and three of the four highest rated prospects on the team are high-school draftees. Three first round picks this year...Damon needs to hit with at least one of them. Mike K. P.S. We will have 2 more draft posts in the next week or so before the draft, I'll be cleaning mine up over the next few days and Mike and I will be collaborating on a post after his wedding this weekend. -Snuggles Edit: fixed! Mike needs to work on his HTML 2013-05-23T14:51:49+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees.com_kuroda_hit_hard_in_more_ways_than_one_vs._os http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees.com_kuroda_hit_hard_in_more_ways_than_one_vs._os#When:02:07:02Z BALTIMORE—Right-hander Hiroki Kuroda was hit hard and forced to leave early with a bruised right calf and the Yankees never recovered, suffering a 6-3 defeat to the Orioles on Wednesday at Camden Yards. Kuroda was charged with five runs in two-plus innings after being struck by a Manny Machado liner in the second. He recovered to finish the frame and began the third, but manager Joe Girardi lifted him after he surrendered two hits. Rookie reliever Preston Claiborne then gave up a three-run homer to Matt Wieters, the first runs Claiborne has allowed in his brief Major League career. Kuroda, who had been the Yankees’ most effective starter going into the evening, also served up homers to Nick Markakis and Chris Davis—Davis’ American League-leading 14th—among the eight hits he allowed. The offense did not assemble much of an attack against Orioles starter Jason Hammel, who held the Yankees to two runs and six hits over 6 2/3 innings. Annoying way to end an annoying series, but it sounds like Kuroda’s injury is not serious so that’s good. Game Recap, Vs. Orioles, Players, Hiroki Kuroda 2013-05-23T02:07:02+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees_28-17_orioles_24-21_wednesday_may_22_2013_705pm http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees_28-17_orioles_24-21_wednesday_may_22_2013_705pm#When:18:49:12Z NYY:Hiroki Kuroda (38, RHP, 6-2, 1.99) vs. BAL:Jason Hammel (30, RHP, 5-2, 5.72) Lineups Hackees Curtis Granderson(L), CF: .174/.208/.174, 0.2 bWAR Robinson Cano(L), 2B: .290/.337/.563, 1.5 bWAR Vernon Wells(R), LF: .288/.343/.513, 1.5 bWAR Travis Hafner(L), DH: .275/.383/.550, 0.7 bWAR Lyle Overbay(L), 1B: .257/.293/.480, 0.7 bWAR David Adams(R), 3B: .318/.348/.545, 0.1 bWAR Ichiro Suzuki(L), RF: .241/.280/.333, 0.2 bWAR Reid Brignac(L), SS: .240/.283/.360, -0.4 bWAR Austin Romine(R), C: .143/.172/.214, -0.3 bWAR Lineup Total: .264/.317/.466, 4.2 bWAR Orioles Nate McLouth(L), LF: .282/.366/.444, 0.8 bWAR Manny Machado(R), 3B: .318/.351/.508, 2.6 bWAR Nick Markakis(L), RF: .293/.340/.394, 0 bWAR Adam Jones(R), DH: .312/.347/.481, 1.3 bWAR Chris Davis(L), 1B: .312/.408/.662, 1.9 bWAR Matt Wieters(S), C: .223/.293/.399, 0.4 bWAR J.J. Hardy(R), SS: .234/.266/.417, 0.4 bWAR Chris Dickerson(L), CF: .371/.389/.686, 0.1 bWAR Alexi Casilla(S), 2B: .213/.245/.255, 0.2 bWAR Lineup Total: .284/.337/.469, 7.7 bWAR How the hell does .174/.208/.174 = positive bWAR anyway? One of the most important concepts when looking at a statistical sample is regression towards the mean.  I’ll let Wikipedia explain it. In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and, paradoxically, if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.[1][2][3] To avoid making wrong inferences, regression toward the mean must be considered when designing scientific experiments and interpreting data. The interpreting of data is particularly important when looking at baseball statistics. Let’s illustrate this with an example.  If you were to look at the ERAs of the two pitchers pitching tonight you’d laugh this game off as a mismatch and an easy win for the Yankees.  But since we should expect both Kuroda and Hammel to regress towards the mean, what should we really foresee this evening?  We are all nerds here and nerds do math, so let’s do some math. Per Fangraphs, Hiroki Kuroda’s ERA- is 47.  It means he’s allowing at a rate of 47% of league average.  Conversely, Hammel’s ERA- of 134 means he’s allowing runs at a rate 34% greater than league average.  Regression to the mean says that both pitchers should be closer to 100%.  What does that mean? In order to get to a league average ERA, Kuroda needs to pitch no more than one inning and allow 15 runs (aka a Hughes).  Hammel needs to pitch nine innings and allow -5 runs. That doesn’t mean the Yankees will lose this game 15 to -5.  That clearly makes no sense.  You can’t expect the bullpen to pitch seven shutout innings in relief of Kuroda. So probably something like 19 or 20 to -5 is realistic.  Maybe 20 to -4 if Hammel is on a pitch count. Liveblog 2013-05-22T18:49:12+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/2013_al_team_pitches_per_plate_appearance_through_may_21 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/2013_al_team_pitches_per_plate_appearance_through_may_21#When:12:46:21Z Tm PA Pit Pit/PA ? BOS 1776 7233 4.07 OAK 1845 7366 3.99 MIN 1625 6433 3.96 CLE 1698 6712 3.95 TOR 1675 6577 3.93 TBR 1714 6661 3.89 DET 1751 6792 3.88 LgAvg 1710 6631 3.88 SEA 1730 6696 3.87 TEX 1737 6726 3.87 HOU 1724 6583 3.82 CHW 1614 6157 3.81 LAA 1761 6678 3.79 KCR 1588 6004 3.78 BAL 1731 6529 3.77 NYY 1677 6325 3.77 All 25646 99472 3.88 PA: Plate appearances Pit: Pitches seen Lately it’s felt to me like the Yankees are seeing about 10 pitches per inning.  It’s not quite that bad, but so far they’ve been the least patient team in the league, and that’s generally not a good thing. Statistics 2013-05-22T12:46:21+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees.com_yanks_bullpen_gives_way_in_10th_at_baltimore http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees.com_yanks_bullpen_gives_way_in_10th_at_baltimore#When:05:09:49Z Vidal Nuno allowed the first run of his Major League career on Tuesday, and it came at a most inopportune time for the Yankees. Nate McLouth pounced on the rookie left-hander’s inviting cutter to deliver a game-winning home run in the 10th inning, lifting the Orioles to a 3-2 victory over New York at Camden Yards. “It was just a little bit off, and he took advantage of it,” said Nuno, who was making his third big league appearance. “That’s all—one pitch, and it cost us the game. But I’ve got to forget about it, work hard tomorrow and get ready for my next outing.” Nuno had entered the game after starter Phil Hughes and four relievers held the Orioles to two runs through the first nine innings. A surprise contender to make the Yankees this spring, Nuno had tossed eight scoreless big league innings before McLouth’s drive. “It hung for just a second, just long enough for him to get a good swing on it and put it in the seats,” said reliever David Robertson, who struck out three in a scoreless eighth. “I’ve had it happen to me, too. It stinks whenever you make a mistake like that and lose a ballgame.” For the first time this season, the Yankees lost a game in which they scored first, falling to 19-1 in those contests. New York’s 19 such victories to open the season established a new American League record. Well, that sucked. On the bright side, the relievers did a very nice job tonight. I had no problem with going to Nuno there. The other top relievers had all been used (besides Mo, but there’s no way he’d ever come in to pitch on the road in a tie game) and they needed to have someone give them length. Nuno was as good a choice as any, he just gave up a home run. Oh well, it happens. Luckily, the Red Sox lost tonight, so the Yankees maintain their lead. Hiroki Kuroda goes tomorrow in the rubber game of the series. Let’s hope he pitches well! In other news, the Attorney General cleared waivers, so now there’s nothing keeping the Yankees from dumping Brignac when Nunez returns. 2013-05-22T05:09:49+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees_28-16_orioles_23-21_tuesday_may_21_2013_705pm http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees_28-16_orioles_23-21_tuesday_may_21_2013_705pm#When:19:18:14Z NYY:Phil Hughes (27, RHP, 2-3, 5.88) vs. BAL:Miguel Gonzalez (29, RHP, 2-2, 4.58) Lineups The Walking Dead Brett Gardner(L), CF: .256/.330/.387, 0.8 bWAR Robinson Cano(L), 2B: .296/.344/.575, 1.5 bWAR Vernon Wells(R), LF: .288/.345/.513, 1.5 bWAR Travis Hafner(L), DH: .267/.379/.552, 0.7 bWAR Lyle Overbay(L), 1B: .264/.301/.493, 0.7 bWAR Curtis Granderson(L), RF: .211/.250/.211, 0.2 bWAR David Adams(R), 3B: .333/.368/.611, 0.1 bWAR Jayson Nix(R), SS: .230/.308/.283, 0.3 bWAR Austin Romine(R), C: .160/.192/.240, -0.3 bWAR Lineup Total: .266/.329/.464, 5.5 bWAR Baltimore Nate McLouth(L), LF: .277/.365/.423, 0.8 bWAR Manny Machado(R), 3B: .319/.353/.513, 2.6 bWAR Nick Markakis(L), RF: .293/.342/.397, 0 bWAR Adam Jones(R), DH: .319/.354/.492, 1.3 bWAR Chris Davis(L), 1B: .318/.411/.675, 1.9 bWAR Matt Wieters(S), C: .229/.301/.410, 0.4 bWAR J.J. Hardy(R), SS: .240/.272/.427, 0.4 bWAR Chris Dickerson(L), CF: .323/.344/.484, 0.1 bWAR Yamaico Navarro(R), 2B: .333/.400/.556, 0 bWAR Lineup Total: .288/.343/.477, 7.5 bWAR Whatever. Liveblog 2013-05-21T19:18:14+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees.com_hafner_delivers_clutch_homer_before_yanks_win_in_10th http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees.com_hafner_delivers_clutch_homer_before_yanks_win_in_10th#When:01:46:50Z BALTIMORE—Travis Hafner’s ninth-inning homer tied the game and Vernon Wells’ ground-rule double provided the lead an inning later, powering the Yankees to a 6-4 victory over the Orioles on Monday at Camden Yards. Hafner’s opposite-field homer, his eighth, came as Jim Johnson blew his third consecutive save opportunity for Baltimore. Ichiro Suzuki opened the 10th with a double off Pedro Strop and scored as Wells delivered the go-ahead blow to left-field. Hafner added an RBI single to give the Yanks a two-run cushion. David Robertson picked up the win and Mariano Rivera pitched a scoreless home half of the 10th for his 17th save in as many chances. That put an end to a night of lead changes that saw the Yankees place a late advantage in CC Sabathia’s back pocket before the lefty stumbled in the seventh inning. Lyle Overbay’s solo home run in the top of the seventh off left-hander Troy Patton boosted New York to a one-run advantage, but Nick Markakis and J.J. Hardy answered with run-scoring doubles to chase Sabathia in the home half of the inning. Thanks to the late rallies, the Yankees remained 19-0 in games in which they have scored first. Sabathia allowed four runs and 11 hits over 6 1/3 innings and is winless in his last four starts. CC didn’t look great again, but the bullpen was nails, like they’ve been just about all season.  The Yankees’ offense hasn’t hit that well overall, but they’ve managed to get their hits in more meaningful situations and they did that again tonight. This is either: a) The worst good team in baseball b) The best bad team in baseball Game Recap, Vs. Orioles, Players, CC Sabathia, Lyle Overbay, Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells 2013-05-21T01:46:50+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees_27-16_orioles_23-20_monday_may_20_2013_705pm http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees_27-16_orioles_23-20_monday_may_20_2013_705pm#When:18:43:39Z NYY:CC Sabathia (32, LHP, 4-3, 3.19) vs. BAL:Freddy Garcia (36, RHP, 0-2, 5.51) Lineups The Walking Dead Brett Gardner(L), CF: .261/.332/.394, 0.8 bWAR Robinson Cano(L), 2B: .295/.337/.563, 1.5 bWAR Travis Hafner(L), DH: .260/.378/.530, 0.7 bWAR Lyle Overbay(L), 1B: .259/.297/.475, 0.7 bWAR Curtis Granderson(L), LF: .267/.313/.267, 0.2 bWAR David Adams(R), 3B: .286/.333/.429, 0.1 bWAR Ichiro Suzuki(L), RF: .241/.281/.328, 0.2 bWAR Reid Brignac(L), SS: .250/.294/.375, -0.4 bWAR Austin Romine(R), C: .182/.217/.273, -0.3 bWAR Lineup Total: .262/.319/.444, 3.5 bWAR Baltimore Nick Markakis(L), RF: .291/.340/.391, 0 bWAR Manny Machado(R), 3B: .328/.362/.527, 2.6 bWAR J.J. Hardy(R), SS: .235/.269/.416, 0.4 bWAR Adam Jones(R), CF: .322/.358/.500, 1.3 bWAR Chris Davis(L), 1B: .313/.406/.660, 1.9 bWAR Matt Wieters(S), C: .230/.304/.410, 0.4 bWAR Danny Valencia(R), 3B DH: .333/.333/.667, 0 bWAR Steve Pearce(R), 1B LF: .217/.321/.391, 0.2 bWAR Alexi Casilla(S), 2B: .209/.244/.256, 0.2 bWAR Lineup Total: .283/.336/.470, 7.0 bWAR Whatever. Liveblog 2013-05-20T18:43:39+00:00