http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/index/ en scippa@gmail.com Copyright 2012 2012-02-05T01:17:33+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/ny_post4 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/ny_post4#When:00:17:33Z “I think it will be helpful,” Girardi said of potentially adding another hitter. “I think we’ve had a good offseason, [but] I think it’s important to our club that you add that other bat.” General manager Brian Cashman is looking for a designated hitter to replace recently traded Jesus Montero. Former Yankees Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui are among the free-agent possibilities. “Johnny has been a great player for a long time,” Girardi said. “There’s been a bunch of names talked about, and they’re all good players. [Raul] Ibanez, he’s had a great career, and Matsui has had a great career. Obviously, we know what Johnny and [Matsui] have meant to this organization and Ibanez has had success wherever he’s been. ...” Well, except when he started out in Seattle.  But that was like 12 years ago - he’s just hitting his stride now. Hot Stove, Management, Joe Girardi, News, Players, Raul Ibanez, Teams, Mariners 2012-02-05T00:17:33+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/cbs_new_york_woman_charged_with_stalking_yankees_gm_brian_cashman http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/cbs_new_york_woman_charged_with_stalking_yankees_gm_brian_cashman#When:12:44:10Z A woman stalked and shook down New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, getting him to pay her $6,000 and demanding more by threatening to harm his reputation, prosecutors said Thursday. I’m going to go ahead and assume that this was the impetus behind signing Rafael Soriano in some way. Complaint Thread, Management, Brian Cashman, Players, Rafael Soriano 2012-02-03T12:44:10+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/nydn_yankees_mark_teixeira_is_set_to_lay_it_down_this_year_like_never_befor http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/nydn_yankees_mark_teixeira_is_set_to_lay_it_down_this_year_like_never_befor#When:12:47:56Z The switch-hitter batted a career-worst .224 from the left side of the plate in 2011, often pulling the ball into the pronounced shift most opposing teams employ against him. And he’s ready to try something drastic. “When no one’s on base, if they’re playing a big shift, I might lay down some bunts this year,” Teixeira said before he was among the honorees at Tuesday night’s Thurman Munson dinner in Midtown. “I’ve been so against it my entire career. But I might lay down a few bunts. If I can beat the shift that way, that’s important.” Joe Girardi approves.  Binder™ was strangely silent when asked. Binder™, Management, Joe Girardi, Players, Mark Teixeira 2012-02-01T12:47:56+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/mlb_daily_dish_yankees_and_bill_hall_in_serious_talks http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/mlb_daily_dish_yankees_and_bill_hall_in_serious_talks#When:19:49:39Z Ken Rosenthal from FOX Sports says that the New York Yankees are in serious talks with utility man Bill Hall. Hall, 32, works out in the off season with New York Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long. Hall had a rough 2011, but he’s had some good years in his career.  CAIRO is not a fan of his. % PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BRAR 80% 362 330 46 83 21 3 15 46 7 1 35 93 4 3 .251 .333 .464 .349 51 14 65% 332 302 39 72 17 2 12 39 6 1 29 90 5 2 .237 .310 .423 .321 40 6 Baseline 302 275 33 61 13 1 9 32 4 2 24 87 5 2 .223 .287 .381 .293 30 -1 35% 272 247 27 52 10 1 7 27 3 2 19 82 6 1 .208 .264 .340 .266 21 -6 20% 242 220 22 43 8 0 5 21 2 3 15 77 6 0 .194 .241 .299 .238 14 -11 BR: Linear weights batting runs BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position wOBA: Weighted on-base average I’m slotting him as a 3B here since that’s the position the Yankees will most likely need him most frequently for.  The baseline projection is yucky, but the 65% forecast is fine and would make him an asset.  If he’s used primarily against LHP that helps him get closer to that 65% forecast if you believe what his regressed platoon splits for wOBA say. % wOBA vs L wOBA vs R 80% .365 .341 65% .336 .314 Baseline .307 .287 35% .278 .260 20% .249 .233 He’s also versatile defensively, having played all over the field.  Here are his defensive projections at the positions he’s played over the last four seasons. player pos Inn DRS UZR TZ ZR avg Bill Hall LF 160 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 Bill Hall 2B 248 -4 -4 -4 -3 -4 Bill Hall CF 152 1 1 0 -1 0 Bill Hall 3B 370 1 1 3 2 2 Bill Hall SS 36 1 0 0 0 0 Bill Hall RF 69 1 -1 0 1 0 DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating TZ: Total Zone ZR: Zone Rating Sample size and defensive metric limitations apply as always, but he seems like he’s capable of playing passable defense all over the field. He doesn’t address the Yankees’ need for a LH DH, but he does make the idea of a rotating DH more realistic since he can spell just about everyone on the field.  Provided he comes cheap, he seems like a decent fit for this roster. Projections, CAIRO, Statistics 2012-01-30T19:49:39+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/tgs_ny_25q_25d_will_the_real_hughes_please_stand_up http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/tgs_ny_25q_25d_will_the_real_hughes_please_stand_up#When:13:07:20Z The Yankees have sent personnel to see Hughes in California this winter and, while they didn’t ask Hughes to strip down to check out what type of shape he is in, the reports are that he looks “great.” Whew.  I was afraid the Yankees were going to cut into our Naked Phil Hughes traffic… On one hand, if Hughes comes into camp in great shape and has a great year, I’ll be ecstatic.  On the other hand, I’ll wonder if the only reason he did so poorly last year was because he didn’t bother conditioning himself?  If that’s the case, you could make the case that Hughes cost the Yankees Jesus Montero, right? Players, Jesus Montero, Phil Hughes 2012-01-30T13:07:20+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/still_too_early_2012_mlb_standings_projection http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/still_too_early_2012_mlb_standings_projection#When:12:19:45Z Instead of running these with CAIRO this time I used Marcel, mainly out of curiosity in seeing what an unbiased projection that was not created to make the Yankees look better than they are would say. It says this. Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL% AL East NYA 92 70 785 682 45.3% 20.3% 10.4% 76.0% AL East BOS 90 72 830 750 27.9% 26.1% 10.8% 64.8% AL East TAM 88 74 717 646 23.7% 21.2% 12.2% 57.1% AL East TOR 81 81 723 727 3.0% 6.9% 6.8% 16.7% AL East BAL 70 92 694 806 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL% AL Central DET 84 78 747 708 43.0% 2.4% 10.1% 55.4% AL Central CLE 83 79 722 708 30.6% 2.9% 7.8% 41.3% AL Central CHA 79 83 686 703 15.2% 1.5% 4.2% 20.9% AL Central KC 79 83 691 714 10.8% 1.9% 4.1% 16.9% AL Central MIN 68 94 693 813 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL% AL West LAA 87 75 719 663 43.7% 6.1% 11.4% 61.2% AL West TEX 87 75 765 707 38.2% 6.9% 13.4% 58.6% AL West OAK 82 80 682 674 14.9% 3.1% 7.4% 25.3% AL West SEA 76 86 649 689 3.2% 0.7% 1.6% 5.5% Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL% NL East PHI 90 72 689 615 44.8% 16.5% 10.7% 72.0% NL East ATL 89 73 668 608 38.2% 19.2% 9.9% 67.3% NL East WAS 83 79 645 634 10.8% 10.3% 8.1% 29.2% NL East FLA 80 82 682 690 5.7% 5.2% 5.4% 16.3% NL East NYN 74 88 630 680 0.6% 1.5% 1.2% 3.2% Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL% NL Central CIN 89 73 719 647 60.4% 8.4% 10.9% 79.7% NL Central STL 84 78 708 681 24.6% 10.7% 7.0% 42.2% NL Central MIL 81 81 678 672 13.1% 6.7% 7.7% 27.5% NL Central PIT 72 90 657 732 1.6% 0.2% 1.0% 2.8% NL Central CHN 70 92 668 761 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 1.0% NL Central HOU 66 96 617 749 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL% NL West COL 85 77 749 711 32.1% 6.4% 10.9% 49.4% NL West ARI 85 77 685 656 30.8% 7.3% 10.8% 48.9% NL West SF 85 77 629 606 29.6% 5.4% 11.3% 46.3% NL West LAN 76 86 618 659 4.1% 1.5% 2.7% 8.2% NL West SD 75 87 608 653 3.4% 0.6% 2.5% 6.4% Div: Percent of time team won division WC 1: Percent of time team won first wild card WC 2: Percent of time team won second wild card We still don’t know if there will be a second wild card yet, so you can chop off that column and subtract that percentage from the team’s over playoff percentage.  Because Marcel regresses more heavily than other projections and because it assumes every one who hasn’t played in MLB projects as league average, you see a tighter spread here than you’ll see in other projected standings.  The standard deviation for team wins in my last CAIRO projections was about 9.  In this version it’s 7.1.  That may be more realistic if you think about how little we really know about how good/bad players and teams are, even though what will actually happen in 2012 will show a much bigger spread more in line with other projected standings. Here are the average win totals for the placings in each division and for the two wild cards. Div Place Avg W AL East 1 96 AL East 2 91 AL East 3 86 AL East 4 80 AL East 5 69 Div Avg W AL Central 1 89 AL Central 2 83 AL Central 3 79 AL Central 4 75 AL Central 5 67 Div Avg W AL West 1 92 AL West 2 86 AL West 3 81 AL West 4 74 AL WC 1 91 AL WC2 88 Div Avg W NL East 1 94 NL East 2 88 NL East 3 83 NL East 4 78 NL East 5 72 Div Avg W NL Central 1 92 NL Central 2 85 NL Central 3 80 NL Central 4 74 NL Central 5 69 NL Central 6 63 Div Avg W NL West 1 91 NL West 2 85 NL West 3 81 NL West 4 77 NL West 5 71 NL WC1 89 NL WC2 87 What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,. Some obvious things to consider would be: - the difference between Yu Darvish (and other imports) and a league average pitcher - prospects who project better than league average - players who switched to parks that will affect their projections since Marcel does not park-adjust Despite all that, the ordinal rankings seem reasonable.  The only differences between this and CAIRO in that regard are that I have St. Louis ahead of Cincinnati and the Diamondbacks and Giants ahead of Colorado. This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them.  Complaint Thread, Postseason Odds, Projections, CAIRO, Marcel, Sabermetrics, Sarcasm, Standings, Statistics, Teams, Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Pirates, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins, White Sox 2012-01-28T12:19:45+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/ny_post3 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/ny_post3#When:14:29:13Z The Yankees have interest in lefty hitting Raul Ibanez, according to sources. Ibanez’s average dropped to .245 last season with the Phillies, but he hit 20 home runs and drove in 84 runs. Ibanez, who will turn 40 in June, has drawn interest from a number of clubs. Ibanez recently had a productive workout with hitting guru Rudy Jaramillo and believes he has corrected flaws in his swing. Over the past six seasons, he averaged 24 home runs and 100 RBIs. The Yankees are not expected to pursue Cuban defector Yoennis Cespedes. When the Yankees are “not expected” to do something, they usually end up doing it. Hot Stove, News, Players, Raul Ibanez 2012-01-27T14:29:13+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/ny_post_yankees_gm_calls_montero_best_player_ive_traded http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/ny_post_yankees_gm_calls_montero_best_player_ive_traded#When:13:14:41Z Yankees GM Brian Cashman has traded Alfonso Soriano, Nick Johnson, David Wells and Mike Lowell, but said believes Jesus Montero could be better than all of them. “He may very well be the best player I’ve traded,” Cashman said of Montero, whom he sent to Seattle in a deal to get right-hander Michael Pineda that was finalized yesterday. “He’s that good. He’s a middle-of-the-lineup type bat.” That means Cashman expects a lot out of Pineda, the 6-foot-7, 23-year-old who went 9-10 as a rookie last year. Cashman and Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik first discussed Pineda at the Winter Meetings last month. Let’s hope not. Complaint Thread, Players, Alfonso Soriano, David Wells, Jesus Montero, Michael Pineda, Nick Johnson 2012-01-26T13:14:41+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/ny_post_yankees_gm_hopes_to_trade_excess_pitching_for_bat http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/ny_post_yankees_gm_hopes_to_trade_excess_pitching_for_bat#When:00:14:04Z And GM Brian Cashman reiterated that he likely isn’t done tinkering with the roster, since the Yankees have seven viable starting pitchers. “I think we’re going to look at our excess pitching,” Cashman said when asked about acquiring a bat. Girardi is confident it will work out. Let me see if I get this. 1) Trade your best hitting prospect for a pitcher 2) Talk about how you now have an excess of pitching and would like to trade it for a bat Is that right? Complaint Thread, Management, Brian Cashman, Joe Girardi 2012-01-25T00:14:04+00:00 http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees.com_live_jorge_posada_news_conference http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankees.com_live_jorge_posada_news_conference#When:15:17:00Z The link goes to MLB.com’s video broadcast of Posada’s press conference, currently in progress. Players, Jorge Posada 2012-01-24T15:17:00+00:00