Saturday, February 4, 2012
NY Post: Girardi says Yankees need some more offense
“I think it will be helpful,” Girardi said of potentially adding another hitter. “I think we’ve had a good offseason, [but] I think it’s important to our club that you add that other bat.”
General manager Brian Cashman is looking for a designated hitter to replace recently traded Jesus Montero. Former Yankees Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui are among the free-agent possibilities.
“Johnny has been a great player for a long time,” Girardi said. “There’s been a bunch of names talked about, and they’re all good players. [Raul] Ibanez, he’s had a great career, and Matsui has had a great career. Obviously, we know what Johnny and [Matsui] have meant to this organization and Ibanez has had success wherever he’s been. ...”
Well, except when he started out in Seattle. But that was like 12 years ago - he’s just hitting his stride now.
Friday, February 3, 2012
CBS New York: Woman Charged With Stalking Yankees GM Brian Cashman
A woman stalked and shook down New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, getting him to pay her $6,000 and demanding more by threatening to harm his reputation, prosecutors said Thursday.
I’m going to go ahead and assume that this was the impetus behind signing Rafael Soriano in some way.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
NYDN: Yankees’ Mark Teixeira is set to lay it down this year like never before
The switch-hitter batted a career-worst .224 from the left side of the plate in 2011, often pulling the ball into the pronounced shift most opposing teams employ against him.
And he’s ready to try something drastic.
“When no one’s on base, if they’re playing a big shift, I might lay down some bunts this year,” Teixeira said before he was among the honorees at Tuesday night’s Thurman Munson dinner in Midtown. “I’ve been so against it my entire career. But I might lay down a few bunts. If I can beat the shift that way, that’s important.”
Joe Girardi approves. Binder™ was strangely silent when asked.
Monday, January 30, 2012
MLB Daily Dish: Yankees and Bill Hall in Serious Talks
Ken Rosenthal from FOX Sports says that the New York Yankees are in serious talks with utility man Bill Hall. Hall, 32, works out in the off season with New York Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long.
Hall had a rough 2011, but he’s had some good years in his career. CAIRO is not a fan of his.
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| 80% | 362 | 330 | 46 | 83 | 21 | 3 | 15 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 35 | 93 | 4 | 3 | .251 | .333 | .464 | .349 | 51 | 14 |
| 65% | 332 | 302 | 39 | 72 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 29 | 90 | 5 | 2 | .237 | .310 | .423 | .321 | 40 | 6 |
| Baseline | 302 | 275 | 33 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 87 | 5 | 2 | .223 | .287 | .381 | .293 | 30 | -1 |
| 35% | 272 | 247 | 27 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 82 | 6 | 1 | .208 | .264 | .340 | .266 | 21 | -6 |
| 20% | 242 | 220 | 22 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 77 | 6 | 0 | .194 | .241 | .299 | .238 | 14 | -11 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
I’m slotting him as a 3B here since that’s the position the Yankees will most likely need him most frequently for. The baseline projection is yucky, but the 65% forecast is fine and would make him an asset. If he’s used primarily against LHP that helps him get closer to that 65% forecast if you believe what his regressed platoon splits for wOBA say.
| % | wOBA vs L | wOBA vs R |
| 80% | .365 | .341 |
| 65% | .336 | .314 |
| Baseline | .307 | .287 |
| 35% | .278 | .260 |
| 20% | .249 | .233 |
He’s also versatile defensively, having played all over the field. Here are his defensive projections at the positions he’s played over the last four seasons.
| player | pos | Inn | DRS | UZR | TZ | ZR | avg |
| Bill Hall | LF | 160 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -2 | -1 |
| Bill Hall | 2B | 248 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -3 | -4 |
| Bill Hall | CF | 152 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Bill Hall | 3B | 370 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Bill Hall | SS | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bill Hall | RF | 69 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating
Sample size and defensive metric limitations apply as always, but he seems like he’s capable of playing passable defense all over the field.
He doesn’t address the Yankees’ need for a LH DH, but he does make the idea of a rotating DH more realistic since he can spell just about everyone on the field. Provided he comes cheap, he seems like a decent fit for this roster.
TGS NY: 25Q/25D: Will the real Hughes please stand up?
The Yankees have sent personnel to see Hughes in California this winter and, while they didn’t ask Hughes to strip down to check out what type of shape he is in, the reports are that he looks “great.”
Whew. I was afraid the Yankees were going to cut into our Naked Phil Hughes traffic…
On one hand, if Hughes comes into camp in great shape and has a great year, I’ll be ecstatic. On the other hand, I’ll wonder if the only reason he did so poorly last year was because he didn’t bother conditioning himself? If that’s the case, you could make the case that Hughes cost the Yankees Jesus Montero, right?
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Still Too Early 2012 MLB Standings Projection
Instead of running these with CAIRO this time I used Marcel, mainly out of curiosity in seeing what an unbiased projection that was not created to make the Yankees look better than they are would say.
It says this.
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| AL East | NYA | 92 | 70 | 785 | 682 | 45.3% | 20.3% | 10.4% | 76.0% |
| AL East | BOS | 90 | 72 | 830 | 750 | 27.9% | 26.1% | 10.8% | 64.8% |
| AL East | TAM | 88 | 74 | 717 | 646 | 23.7% | 21.2% | 12.2% | 57.1% |
| AL East | TOR | 81 | 81 | 723 | 727 | 3.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 16.7% |
| AL East | BAL | 70 | 92 | 694 | 806 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| AL Central | DET | 84 | 78 | 747 | 708 | 43.0% | 2.4% | 10.1% | 55.4% |
| AL Central | CLE | 83 | 79 | 722 | 708 | 30.6% | 2.9% | 7.8% | 41.3% |
| AL Central | CHA | 79 | 83 | 686 | 703 | 15.2% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 20.9% |
| AL Central | KC | 79 | 83 | 691 | 714 | 10.8% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 16.9% |
| AL Central | MIN | 68 | 94 | 693 | 813 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| AL West | LAA | 87 | 75 | 719 | 663 | 43.7% | 6.1% | 11.4% | 61.2% |
| AL West | TEX | 87 | 75 | 765 | 707 | 38.2% | 6.9% | 13.4% | 58.6% |
| AL West | OAK | 82 | 80 | 682 | 674 | 14.9% | 3.1% | 7.4% | 25.3% |
| AL West | SEA | 76 | 86 | 649 | 689 | 3.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 5.5% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL East | PHI | 90 | 72 | 689 | 615 | 44.8% | 16.5% | 10.7% | 72.0% |
| NL East | ATL | 89 | 73 | 668 | 608 | 38.2% | 19.2% | 9.9% | 67.3% |
| NL East | WAS | 83 | 79 | 645 | 634 | 10.8% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 29.2% |
| NL East | FLA | 80 | 82 | 682 | 690 | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 16.3% |
| NL East | NYN | 74 | 88 | 630 | 680 | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 3.2% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL Central | CIN | 89 | 73 | 719 | 647 | 60.4% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 79.7% |
| NL Central | STL | 84 | 78 | 708 | 681 | 24.6% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 42.2% |
| NL Central | MIL | 81 | 81 | 678 | 672 | 13.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 27.5% |
| NL Central | PIT | 72 | 90 | 657 | 732 | 1.6% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 2.8% |
| NL Central | CHN | 70 | 92 | 668 | 761 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% |
| NL Central | HOU | 66 | 96 | 617 | 749 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL West | COL | 85 | 77 | 749 | 711 | 32.1% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 49.4% |
| NL West | ARI | 85 | 77 | 685 | 656 | 30.8% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 48.9% |
| NL West | SF | 85 | 77 | 629 | 606 | 29.6% | 5.4% | 11.3% | 46.3% |
| NL West | LAN | 76 | 86 | 618 | 659 | 4.1% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 8.2% |
| NL West | SD | 75 | 87 | 608 | 653 | 3.4% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 6.4% |
Div: Percent of time team won division
WC 1: Percent of time team won first wild card
WC 2: Percent of time team won second wild card
We still don’t know if there will be a second wild card yet, so you can chop off that column and subtract that percentage from the team’s over playoff percentage.
Because Marcel regresses more heavily than other projections and because it assumes every one who hasn’t played in MLB projects as league average, you see a tighter spread here than you’ll see in other projected standings. The standard deviation for team wins in my last CAIRO projections was about 9. In this version it’s 7.1. That may be more realistic if you think about how little we really know about how good/bad players and teams are, even though what will actually happen in 2012 will show a much bigger spread more in line with other projected standings.
Here are the average win totals for the placings in each division and for the two wild cards.
| Div | Place | Avg W |
| AL East | 1 | 96 |
| AL East | 2 | 91 |
| AL East | 3 | 86 |
| AL East | 4 | 80 |
| AL East | 5 | 69 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| AL Central | 1 | 89 |
| AL Central | 2 | 83 |
| AL Central | 3 | 79 |
| AL Central | 4 | 75 |
| AL Central | 5 | 67 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| AL West | 1 | 92 |
| AL West | 2 | 86 |
| AL West | 3 | 81 |
| AL West | 4 | 74 |
| AL WC 1 | 91 | |
| AL WC2 | 88 | |
| Div | Avg W | |
| NL East | 1 | 94 |
| NL East | 2 | 88 |
| NL East | 3 | 83 |
| NL East | 4 | 78 |
| NL East | 5 | 72 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| NL Central | 1 | 92 |
| NL Central | 2 | 85 |
| NL Central | 3 | 80 |
| NL Central | 4 | 74 |
| NL Central | 5 | 69 |
| NL Central | 6 | 63 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| NL West | 1 | 91 |
| NL West | 2 | 85 |
| NL West | 3 | 81 |
| NL West | 4 | 77 |
| NL West | 5 | 71 |
| NL WC1 | 89 | |
| NL WC2 | 87 |
What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,.
Some obvious things to consider would be:
- the difference between Yu Darvish (and other imports) and a league average pitcher
- prospects who project better than league average
- players who switched to parks that will affect their projections since Marcel does not park-adjust
Despite all that, the ordinal rankings seem reasonable. The only differences between this and CAIRO in that regard are that I have St. Louis ahead of Cincinnati and the Diamondbacks and Giants ahead of Colorado.
This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them.
Friday, January 27, 2012
NY Post: Yankees interested in Ibanez
The Yankees have interest in lefty hitting Raul Ibanez, according to sources. Ibanez’s average dropped to .245 last season with the Phillies, but he hit 20 home runs and drove in 84 runs. Ibanez, who will turn 40 in June, has drawn interest from a number of clubs.
Ibanez recently had a productive workout with hitting guru Rudy Jaramillo and believes he has corrected flaws in his swing. Over the past six seasons, he averaged 24 home runs and 100 RBIs.
The Yankees are not expected to pursue Cuban defector Yoennis Cespedes.
When the Yankees are “not expected” to do something, they usually end up doing it.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
NY Post: Yankees GM calls Montero ‘best player I’ve traded’
Yankees GM Brian Cashman has traded Alfonso Soriano, Nick Johnson, David Wells and Mike Lowell, but said believes Jesus Montero could be better than all of them.
“He may very well be the best player I’ve traded,” Cashman said of Montero, whom he sent to Seattle in a deal to get right-hander Michael Pineda that was finalized yesterday. “He’s that good. He’s a middle-of-the-lineup type bat.”
That means Cashman expects a lot out of Pineda, the 6-foot-7, 23-year-old who went 9-10 as a rookie last year. Cashman and Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik first discussed Pineda at the Winter Meetings last month.
Let’s hope not.