Monday, September 25, 2017
Aaron Judge homered twice in Sunday afternoon’s 9-5 loss to the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre, notching his American League-leading 47th and 48th home runs to close within one blast of Mark McGwire’s 1987 record for the most home runs hit by a Major League rookie.
With the divisional race now effectively over, it is all about who the Yankees pitch in the Wild Card game and whether Aaron Judge hits 50 home runs.
We are witnessing something very special here.
I have no idea who pitches the Wild Card game at the moment. I actually think that CC has an argument if it is the Twins, which sounds insane, and yet…
Sunday, September 24, 2017
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .261/.351/.362, 3.4 fWAR
2. Chase Headley (S) DH .253/.331/.385, 2.2 fWAR
3. Aaron Judge (R) RF .179/.263/.345, 7.0 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .276/.304/.447, 3.7 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .270/.300/.433, 1.3 fWAR
6. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .263/.330/.374, 1.6 fWAR
7. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .225/.302/.464, 3.0 fWAR
8. Greg Bird (L) 1B , .167/.269/.349, -0.7 fWAR
9. Austin Romine (R) C .242/.269/.382, -0.5 fWAR
Team Total: 21.0 fWAR
1. Teoscar Hernandez (R) LF .230/.304/.420, 0.3 fWAR
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B .284/.404/.549, 4.3 fWAR
3. Justin Smoak (S) 1B .217/.314/.391, 3.5 fWAR
4. Jose Bautista (R) RF .234/.366/.452, -0.4 fWAR
5. Kendrys Morales (S) DH .263/.327/.468, -0.7 fWAR
6. Kevin Pillar (R) CF .266/.303/.376, 2.0 fWAR
7. Russell Martin (R) C .231/.335/.398, 1.8 fWAR
8. Darwin Barney (R) 2B .269/.322/.373, -0.7 fWAR
9. Ryan Goins (L) SS .186/.228/.306, -0.7 fWAR
Team Total: 9.4 fWAR
It was supposed to take a while for the Yankees to rebuild after selling off some key veterans last season—or at least, that was the outside perception. The Yanks never bought into that, and as they sprayed cold bubbly in the visiting clubhouse at Rogers Centre, there was great optimism about accomplishing much more in October.
The Yankees clinched the 53rd postseason berth in franchise history on Saturday afternoon, with Greg Bird cracking a three-run homer to support Sonny Gray’s solid effort in a 5-1 victory over the Blue Jays. Shaking hands on the field before cutting loose behind closed doors, this exciting crop of “Baby Bombers” now plans to savor high-stakes baseball.
One of the worst things for me, personally, is when I’m on vacation and the Yankees have a losing streak, because it distracts me from the vacation. I was pleased to not have any distractions this week. What a sweep of the Twins! And now they’ve already clinched a postseason spot with more than a week to go? That’s awesome.
Congrats, Yankees! The best thing (besides possibly doing well in the playoffs this season) is that there doesn’t seem to be any real reason why this same basic team couldn’t come back next year and just do it all again, and maybe even be BETTER!
Pretty darn good time to be a Yankee fan…even with the inevitable 3-2 Wild Card Game loss to Ricky Nolasco looming ahead of us.
Saturday, September 23, 2017
Yankees: Sonny Gray (R): (54.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 2.6 RA-9 WAR) vs. Blue Jays: Joe Biagini (R): (109.2 IP, 5.33 ERA, -0.1 RA-9 WAR)
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .267/.352/.427, 3.5 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .280/.416/.600, 7.0 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .279/.345/.533, 4.3 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .289/.322/.491, 3.8 fWAR
5. Chase Headley (S) DH .277/.355/.416, 2.1 fWAR
6. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .270/.357/.415, 1.7 fWAR
7. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .295/.331/.444, 1.3 fWAR
8. Greg Bird (L) 1B .164/.270/.328, 0.0 fWAR
9. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .221/.370/.430, 2.9 fWAR
Team Total: 26.6 fWAR
1. Teoscar Hernandez (R) LF .268/.288/.518, 0.2 fWAR
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B .264/.385/.543, 4.3 fWAR
3. Justin Smoak (S) 1B .273/.356/.540, 3.4 fWAR
4. Jose Bautista (R) RF .203/.310/.367, -0.3 fWAR
5. Kendrys Morales (S) DH .249/.307/.448, -0.7 fWAR
6. Kevin Pillar (R) CF .257/.303/.409, 2.1 fWAR
7. Ryan Goins (L) SS .228/.280/.343, -0.6 fWAR
8. Darwin Barney (R) 2B .236/.275/.327, -0.6 fWAR
9. Raffy Lopez (L) C .234/.327/.511, 0.4 fWAR
Team Total: 8.2 fWAR
Friday, September 22, 2017
Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (R): (165.2 IP, 4.73 ERA, 1.7 RA-9 WAR) vs. Blue Jays: Marco Estrada (R): (176.2 IP, 4.84 ERA, 2.1 RA-9 WAR)
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .273/.361/.420, 1.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .277/.412/.591, 6.7 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .282/.347/.538, 4.3 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .291/.325/.495, 3.9 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .298/.334/.448, 1.4 fWAR
6. Matt Holliday (R) DH .233/.321/.433, 0.0 fWAR
7. Chase Headley (S) 1B .278/.357/.419, 2.2 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .218/.366/.424, 2.8 fWAR
9. Clint Frazier (R) LF .242/.275/.476, -0.2 fWAR
Team Total: 22.9 fWAR
1. Teoscar Hernandez (R) LF .250/.273/.462, 0.1 fWAR
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B .264/.386/.546, 4.3 fWAR
3. Justin Smoak (S) 1B .275/.358/.544, 3.5 fWAR
4. Jose Bautista (R) RF .203/.309/.369, -0.3 fWAR
5. Kevin Pillar (R) CF .258/.303/.410, 2.1 fWAR
6. Russell Martin (R) C .222/.349/.382, 1.7 fWAR
7. Miguel Montero (L) DH .136/.245/.247, -0.4 fWAR
8. Darwin Barney (R) 2B .237/.276/.329, -0.6 fWAR
9. Ryan Goins (L) SS .228/.279/.335, -0.7 fWAR
Team Total: 9.7 fWAR
If you’re interested in a getting a gauge on team quality that goes beyond runs scored and runs allowed—and we are—then you can turn to the BaseRuns system at FanGraphs. BaseRuns drills down to the plate appearance level and corrects for some of the sequencing and clustering effects inherent in run differential. Sometimes it gives you a different picture. In the case of the 2017 Yankees, it sees a team that should be 94-58 instead of that actual record of 85-67. The Indians are tops in the current BaseRuns standings, and the Dodgers are second at 95 wins. The Yankees, of course, check in just behind them. The broader takeaway is that both run differential and BaseRuns see the Yankees as being significantly better than their actual record. That has meaning as we head toward the postseason.
More evidence the Yankees are better than Boston.
Thursday, September 21, 2017
NEW YORK—Start the playoff countdown.
With the Yankees’ win over the Twins and the Angels’ loss to the Indians, New York’s magic number to reach the playoffs dipped on Wednesday.
Heading into play on September 21, the Yankees magic number to clinch a postseason berth is now just three.
That’s the combined number of Yankees wins and Angels losses that will guarantee at least a postseason berth for the pinstripes.
I guess the Yankees should start lining up their pitching for the coin flip game. I am hoping the Twins take the second wild card, because the idea of facing Mike Trout in a winner-take-all game is frightening.
Wednesday, September 20, 2017
Twins: Bartolo Colon (R): (69.1 IP, 4.80 ERA, -1.2 RA9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Luis Severino (R): (184.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 5.4 RA9 WAR)
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B .259/.346/.477, 3.7 fWAR
2. Joe Mauer (L) DH .308/.385/.424, 2.3 fWAR
3. Jorge Polanco (S) SS .253/.308/.404, 1.3 fWAR
4. Eddie Rosario (L) LF .292/.330/.515, 2.3 fWAR
5. Byron Buxton (R) CF .254/.316/.423, 3.4 fWAR
6. Max Kepler (L) RF .243/.315/.425, 1.2 fWAR
7. Eduardo Escobar (S) 3B .251/.309/.442, 1.3 fWAR
8. Kennys Vargas (S) 1B .251/.311/.453, 0.4 fWAR
9. Jason Castro (L) C .233/.325/.378, 1.2 fWAR
Team Total: 17.1 fWAR
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .265/.349/.426, 3.3 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .276/.412/.586, 6.6 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .277/.344/.530, 4.1 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .292/.325/.491, 3.8 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .301/.337/.452, 1.4 fWAR
6. Matt Holliday (R) DH .234/.323/.436, 0 fWAR
7. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .267/.355/.407, 1.5 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .222/.368/.431, 2.8 fWAR
9. Greg Bird (L) 1B .144/.255/.297, -0.9 fWAR
Team Total: 22.6 fWAR
NEW YORK—Luis Severino was moved up two days by the New York Yankees and is scheduled to start Wednesday against the Minnesota Twins.
Yankees manager Joe Girardi said Tuesday the move was made to give Severino three more regular-season starts as New York tries to overtake Boston in the American League East.
Severino had been slated to start Friday at Toronto and will be replaced against the Blue Jays by Masahiro Tanaka.
A 23-year-old right-hander, Severino is 13-6 with a 2.93 ERA in 29 starts this season. He has not allowed more than one earned run in nine of 12 outings since the All-Star break.
“Our goal is still to win the division. We’ve clinched nothing at this point,” Girardi said. “We still have a lot of work to do in front of us, so it gives us the ability to start him three more times.”
Obviously if you can get more starts out of Severino it’s better, but the division is over. Boston’s schedule is a sick joke and they are not going to lose another three games during the remainder of the regular season.
Congratulations to them on their AL East title. I’ll take the consolation prize of winning the third order standings division title.
Tuesday, September 19, 2017
Twins: Jose Berrios (R): (136 IP, 3.84 ERA, 2.4 RA9 WAR) vs. Yankees: CC Sabathia (L): (131 IP, 3.85 ERA, 2.7 RA9 WAR)
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B .259/.345/.478, 3.7 fWAR
2. Joe Mauer (L) 1B .306/.384/.423, 2.2 fWAR
3. Jorge Polanco (S) SS .251/.306/.404, 1.2 fWAR
4. Eduardo Escobar (S) 3B .254/.312/.446, 1.4 fWAR
5. Byron Buxton (R) CF .255/.317/.426, 3.4 fWAR
6. Eddie Rosario (L) LF .295/.332/.519, 2.4 fWAR
7. Robbie Grossman (S) DH .248/.369/.390, 0.7 fWAR
8. Chris Gimenez (R) C .211/.341/.357, 0.9 fWAR
9. Max Kepler (L) RF .243/.316/.420, 1.1 fWAR
Team Total: 17.0 fWAR
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .262/.347/.422, 3.2 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .275/.412/.587, 6.6 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.346/.533, 4.1 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .292/.324/.491, 3.8 fWAR
5. Chase Headley (S) DH .281/.358/.422, 2.2 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .296/.332/.449, 1.3 fWAR
7. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF .267/.355/.406, 1.5 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .226/.371/.439, 2.8 fWAR
9. Greg Bird (L) 1B .147/.248/.302, -0.9 fWAR
Team Total: 24.6 fWAR
NEW YORK—The Yankees didn’t just beat the Twins on Monday night.
They took yet another step toward clinching a playoff berth.
With the Angels’ off day and a win over the Twins, the Yankees’ magic number to reach the postseason dropped one game to seven.
That’s how many combined wins or Angels losses the Yankees need to secure a playoff berth.
I don’t really consider the wild card game ‘the playoffs.’ I do consider it the postseason. With the division looking like a real long shot now, the Yankees are at least putting themselves into a position where they can set up their roster and rotation for that play-in game and then hope for the best.
It’s annoying, because they are probably better than Boston this year but Boston’s been lucky and the Yankees haven’t. There’s no reason to expect that luck (good or bad) to predict future results, but it has created the situation the Yankees are in now.
It’s amazing the Yankee are in contention given how terrible they’ve played lately. From the linked article:
- The Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6G and 8-2 in their last 10G…are 12-4 in their last 16G, matching their best 16-game stretch this season\
- are 16G above .500, matching their season-high watermark (were also 16G above .500 at the end of play on Saturday)
- are 22-12 since 8/14 and 35-22 since 7/20
- are 38-26 (.594) since the All-Star break.
They stink. They’re terrible.