Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

RSS 2.0 Atom CC lets lead slip away as Yanks fall to A’s
(1 Comment - 5/29/2015 1:54:55 am) Yanks sweep Royals behind power, Pineda
(94 Comments - 5/29/2015 1:35:41 am) Teixeira’s HR helps Yankees power past Royals
(88 Comments - 5/27/2015 5:40:47 pm) Yankees don’t look back after early barrage
(65 Comments - 5/26/2015 10:16:50 pm)

Royals @ Yankees, Monday May 25, 2015 , 1:05 PM
(23 Comments - 5/25/2015 4:12:03 pm) Yanks drop finale to Texas as skid hits six
(16 Comments - 5/25/2015 3:56:56 pm)

Rangers @ Yankees, Sunday May 24, 2015 , 8:05 PM
(36 Comments - 5/25/2015 12:06:24 am)

Rangers @ Yankees, Saturday May 23, 2015 , 1:05 PM
(58 Comments - 5/24/2015 6:02:29 pm)

Rangers (18-23) @ Yankees (22-19) , Friday May 22, 2015 , 7:05 PM
(53 Comments - 5/23/2015 11:07:54 am)

NY Post: Masahiro Tanaka passes first rehab start with flying colors
(18 Comments - 5/22/2015 4:37:19 pm)

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.

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Friday, May 29, 2015 CC lets lead slip away as Yanks fall to A’s

Billy Burns and Brett Lawrie homered, and the A’s posted a pair of runs in the seventh inning to break ahead and claim a 5-4 series-opening victory over the Yankees at the Coliseum on Thursday evening.

Lawrie wiped away a two-run Yankees lead in the sixth with a two-run home run off left-hander CC Sabathia, who allowed eight hits in six-plus innings and was charged with all five runs, and the A’s went ahead in the seventh when Ben Zobrist drew a bases-loaded walk against right-hander David Carpenter.

Yankees catcher Brian McCann notched his seventh homer of the season and third in as many days with a solo shot against A’s starter Kendall Graveman in the second, one of McCann’s three hits on the night. Alex Rodriguez’s fifth-inning sacrifice fly gave him 1,996 career RBIs, tying him with Barry Bonds for second on the all-time list, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Brett Gardner drove in Garrett Jones with a two-out RBI double in the ninth off A’s closer Tyler Clippard to make it 5-4, but Chase Headley flew out to center for the final out.

Definitely an ugly loss. The seventh inning was a mess. I get that CC and David Carpenter seemed like equally shitty options to Girardi, so I can sort of kind of see why he would start the seventh with CC, but the leash has got to be microscopic, he should have been pulled after the first guy got on. By the way, okay, if you don’t trust Lindgren, what about Shreve over Carpenter for now?

Once again the offense really couldn’t do much after the early innings, although there was a tease in the ninth with a ribbie double by Gardner.

Oh well, at least tomorrow is an automatic win with Capuano vs. Gray.

--Posted at 12:25 am by Brian Cronin / 1 Comment | - (0)

Wednesday, May 27, 2015 Yanks sweep Royals behind power, Pineda

Alex Rodriguez belted a go-ahead three-run homer and right-hander Michael Pineda delivered 6 2/3 superb innings as the Yankees completed a three-game sweep of the Royals with a 4-2 victory on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium.

The Royals lost their fourth straight, their longest losing streak since late August, and dropped into a tie for first place in the American League Central with surging Minnesota.

Brian McCann homered for the Yankees in the second inning before Rodriguez lined a laser just over the wall in left field in the third.

Pineda gave up six hits and one run while walking one and striking out eight.

Chris Young took the loss for the Royals, going six innings and giving up four runs. He walked two and struck out seven. Young had given up just one earned run total in his previous four starts.

Well, that was a pleasant surprise. The amount of power A-Rod has is ridiculous. He barely looked like he exerted himself on the three-run home run.

It was great to see Pineda return to form. He’s going to have to perform well for the next month if he wants to be the Yankees’ token All-Star representative.

--Posted at 4:37 pm by Brian Cronin / 94 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, May 26, 2015 Teixeira’s HR helps Yankees power past Royals

Right-hander Adam Warren threw 6 1/3 strong innings, while Mark Teixeira drove in four runs with a double and a homer as the Yankees rolled to a 5-1 win over the Royals on Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium.

The Royals dropped their third straight, the first time they have lost three straight games in nearly eight months. Kansas City dropped four straight over the final four days in August.

Warren gave up just two hits, walked none and struck out five. He retired the first 10 hitters he faced until Mike Moustakas beat out a hit into short right field against the shift.

Alex Rodriguez reached base three times for the Yankees and scored twice.

Adam Warren has really come into his own recently. Here’s the tricky thing, when/if Tanaka returns, who goes to the bullpen? The issue is that Warren is the better pitcher, but he’s also the better reliever while Capuano is not all that helpful as a reliever, so who do you pull from the rotation - the better starter who can be used as a high leverage reliever or the worse starter who would only become a long man if pulled from the rotation?


--Posted at 9:04 pm by Brian Cronin / 88 Comments | - (0)

Monday, May 25, 2015 Yankees don’t look back after early barrage

The Yankees snapped their six-game losing streak in grand fashion on Monday, cruising to a 14-1 victory over the Royals in the series opener at Yankee Stadium.

Losers of six straight and 10 of their past 11, the Yankees wasted no time in jumping all over Royals starter Jeremy Guthrie, knocking the veteran right-hander out of the game before he could record an out in the second inning. In the second-shortest start of his career, Guthrie allowed a career-worst 11 earned runs. He gave up four homers and allowed 13 of the 16 batters he faced to reach base.

Eight of those 11 runs—and three of the homers—came in the first inning as the Yankees staked right-hander Nathan Eovaldi to an 8-0 lead. New York continued to pour it on in the second inning, as the first two batters reached before Stephen Drew ended Guthrie’s day with another home run, a three-run shot that pushed the lead to 11-0.

On the one hand, obviously it is very good to see the Yankees have a rare laugher. On the other hand, boy, where the hell was this run support the last 11 games?!

Still, better to get a win than not! I think the Yankees should keep Headley in the #2 hole. He is an interesting guy there. Meanwhile, Slade Heathcott. Holy crap, right?

Lost in the offense is the fact that Nathan Eovaldi was excellent today. One of his best starts of the season. Jacob Lindgren got to make his Major League debut today and he was shockingly good. Oh wait, did I say shockingly? I meant “predictably.” Hopefully he gets some higher leverage innings soon (or rather, hopefully the Yankees keep winning big and there is no need for high leverage innings - hey, if I’m going to dream, I might as well dream big, right?).

--Posted at 5:02 pm by Brian Cronin / 65 Comments | - (0)

Royals @ Yankees, Monday May 25, 2015 , 1:05 PM


Memorial Day is a good time to say thank you to all who served our country and particularly those who made the supreme sacrifice.  Thank you to all vets and their families.

--Posted at 10:46 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, May 24, 2015 Yanks drop finale to Texas as skid hits six

Yovani Gallardo pitched six strong innings and Adam Rosales hit a two-run homer, leading the Rangers to a 5-2 victory over the Yankees on Sunday night at Yankee Stadium, completing a sweep of the three-game series.

Prince Fielder also drove in a pair of runs as Texas won its fifth straight contest, sending the skidding Yanks to their sixth straight defeat. Gallardo limited New York’s bats to two runs and four hits over six innings, walking one and striking out six.

The Kansas City Royals come to town tomorrow and, well, yeah, the Yankees are kind of screwed. After already being screwed due to losing their last six games. Not good times.

--Posted at 11:33 pm by Brian Cronin / 16 Comments | - (0)

Rangers @ Yankees, Sunday May 24, 2015 , 8:05 PM

TEX: Yovani Gallardo, RHP vs. NYY: Chris Capuano, LHP

--Posted at 5:45 pm by SG / 36 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, May 23, 2015

Rangers @ Yankees, Saturday May 23, 2015 , 1:05 PM

TEX: Nick Martinez, RHP vs. NYY: CC Sabathia, LHP

--Posted at 10:00 am by SG / 58 Comments | - (0)

Friday, May 22, 2015

Rangers (18-23) @ Yankees (22-19) , Friday May 22, 2015 , 7:05 PM

Rangers: Colby Lewis (R) (50 IP, 3.06 ERA, 3.17 FIP) vs. Yankees: Michael Pineda (R) (51.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.99 FIP)

1. Delino DeShields (R) LF: (.279/.405/.393)
2. Shin-Soo Choo (L) RF: (.234/.316/.445)
3. Prince Fielder (L) DH: (.340/.397/.488)
4. Adrian Beltre (R) 3B: (.259/.296/.416)
5. Mitch Moreland (L) 1B: (.312/.382/.506)
6. Elvis Andrus (R) SS: (.224/.289/.280)
7. Leonys Martin (L) CF: (.208/.246/.308)
8. Robinson Chirinos (R) C: (.190/.300/.440)
9. Thomas Field (R) 2B: (.222/.300/.444)

1. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.290/.363/.427)
2. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.237/.271/.389)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.246/.346/.554)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.252/.377/.588)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.234/.293/.387)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.236/.283/.385)
7. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.182/.263/.339)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.214/.276/.250)
9. Slade Heathcott (L) CF: (—-/—-/—-)

Pretty cool to see Heathcott in the starting lineup, regardless of where his career goes from here.  Not as cool to see Beltran.  Or Drew.  Or Gregorius.  Or….

--Posted at 3:56 pm by SG / 53 Comments | - (0)

NY Post: Masahiro Tanaka passes first rehab start with flying colors

MOOSIC, Pa. — He threw 41 pitches, 25 of them for strikes against a Triple-A team. But all that mattered for the Yankees and Masahiro Tanaka was that he made his pitches without pain or problems.

Feeling no discomfort, “not at all,” he said, Tanaka went three innings for the Yankees’ Scranton/Wilkes-Barre affiliate Thursday in his first rehab start. He gave up a double in a 12-pitch first inning, went through a 1-2-3 second inning and then required 22 pitches to get out of the third, in which he surrendered a single but struck out two.

“I felt pretty good out there. I was able to use all my pitches. So I felt pretty good,” Tanaka, speaking through a translator, said to a gathering of more than three dozen media types at PNC Field.

Final tally: three innings, two hits, no runs, no walks, two strikeouts. He hit 92 mph with one pitch and was consistently 90-91 with his fastball.

If I didn’t feel like this is all just delaying the inevitable, I might be happy.

--Posted at 8:22 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, May 21, 2015

The Correction

After their 11-5 win at Tampa Bay on May 11, the Yankees were 21-12.  They had outscored their opponents by 36 runs and had improved their CAIRO final 2015 win projection from 79 at the start of the season to around 86 wins.

Then came the correction. 

The Yankees have lost seven of their last eight games, scoring 17 runs and allowing 39.  They’ve dropped to a final projected win total of around 82 wins now.  Here’s a little chart that conveys how their postseason odds have swung since Opening Day.

Date W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS%
4-Apr 79 83 673 679 12.5% 6.1% 6.9% 25.5%
11-May 86 76 695 665 27.7% 10.8% 8.7% 47.1%
21-May 82 80 681 675 20.2% 8.5% 7.9% 36.6%

W: Projected final 2015 wins
L: Projected final 2015 losses
RS: Projected final 2015 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2015 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

An optimist can say that the Yankees are still ahead of where they projected to be at the start of the year, despite a lot of fairly disappointing performances.  A pessimist might say that all the players that have played well so far are due to regress and that none of the players who have played poorly so far will play any better and that they have been somewhat fortunate in regards to health (Masahiro Tanaka notwithstanding).

The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle.  The Yankees are probably good enough to remain on the fringes of contention for a while, because the AL East as a whole doesn’t appear to have any clearly great team.  As it stands now, this is how the CAIRO projects the rest of the season to play out in the AL East.

Rays 83 79 643 614 22.2% 8.0% 8.7% 38.9%
Yankees 82 80 681 675 21.0% 8.5% 7.9% 37.4%
Red Sox 82 80 760 760 20.2% 6.4% 7.0% 33.6%
Orioles 82 80 719 690 18.0% 7.1% 7.1% 32.1%
Blue Jays 81 81 775 732 18.2% 6.6% 7.1% 31.9%

It’s likely that we’ll see a much larger separation than that by season’s end, but I feel comfortable in saying that it’s still anyone’s division right now.  The Yankees had built up a bit of a cushion when they were 21-12 and it’s gone away, but they are still in a position to contend.

For now.

--Posted at 9:29 am by SG / 48 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, May 20, 2015 Yankees’ promising start fizzles in loss

WASHINGTON—Denard Span’s single broke a tie in the seventh inning and helped the Nationals edge the Yankees, 3-2, at Nationals Park on Wednesday night.

With the bases loaded, one out and left-hander Justin Wilson on the mound, Span singled to left field, scoring Wilson Ramos, who saw his hitting streak halted at 19 games.
Drew Storen struck out Alex Rodriguez with a runner on first to earn his 12th save.

That title could describe the Yankees season as it goes down in flames too.

I apologize for saying the Yankees would be under .500 by June 1.  They will actually be under .500 by May 25.

--Posted at 9:48 pm by SG / 6 Comments | - (0)

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