The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

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NY Post: Yankees in surprising push for once-celebrated prospect
(93 Comments - 11/19/2017 9:53:46 pm) Unanimous decision: Judge named AL ROY
(75 Comments - 11/16/2017 10:18:50 am) What Yankees manager candidate Eric Wedge revealed about interview
(39 Comments - 11/13/2017 7:20:55 pm)

NYDN: Yankees can pay most for Shohei Otani, with one exception
(112 Comments - 11/11/2017 3:08:24 am) Judge up for ROY & MVP; Sevy for Cy Young
(64 Comments - 11/9/2017 1:48:23 pm) Which prospects will Yankees protect from Rule 5 Draft?
(47 Comments - 11/7/2017 9:40:41 am) Tanaka declines to opt out, will stay with Yanks
(61 Comments - 11/6/2017 1:58:25 pm)

NY Post: Masahiro Tanaka is Yankees’ first offseason domino
(48 Comments - 11/3/2017 7:34:09 pm) Judge, Gardner among Gold Glove finalists
(113 Comments - 11/2/2017 11:30:29 am)

NY Times: Joe Girardi Is Out as Yankees’ Manager
(250 Comments - 10/30/2017 8:43:59 am)


Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.

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Friday, October 13, 2017

Yankees (91-71) @ Astros (101-61), Friday, 10/13/2017, 08:08p ET

Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (R): (178.1 IP, 4.74 ERA, 1.7 RA-9 WAR) vs. Astros: Dallas Keuchel (L): (145.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 4.5 RA-9 WAR)

1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
6. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
7. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
8. Matt Holliday (R) DH .231/.316/.432, -0.1 fWAR
9. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .222/.365/.423, 3.0 fWAR
Team Total: 28.0 fWAR

1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
6. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B .299/.332/.486, 0.0 fWAR
7. Carlos Beltran (S) DH .231/.283/.383, -1.1 fWAR
8. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
9. Brian McCann (L) C .241/.323/.436, 1.6 fWAR
Team Total: 29.1 fWAR

Masahiro Tanaka’s worst start of the season was against the Astros on May 14 at Yankee Stadium.  Tanaka allowed eight earned runs in 1.2 innings, including four homers.  That game is actually worse than it appears because of how well he pitched at home (3.22 ERA) vs. on the road (6.48 ERA) this year.

It’s the only game that Tanaka pitched against Houston this year, so it’s the only data point we need.  We know that Tanaka is a 43.21729 ERA pitcher against Houston in Yankee Stadium.  We know he’s 2.012422 times worse on the road than he is at home.  Ergo, Tanaka against Houston in Houston is a 86.97143 ERA pitcher, which means he should allow about 16.09938 runs tonight if he can last 1.2 innings.

On the other hand, Dallas Keuchel has thrown 50.2 career innings against the Yankees and has allowed a grand total of seven earned runs.  In order for the Yankees to score as many runs against Keuchel as Tanaka is likely to give up tonight, they would have to face Keuchel for 116 innings.

If the Yankees can last into the 116th inning in tonight’s ALCS opener, they may have a chance to steal this one.  Otherwise, I have to say the advantage lies with Houston.

I wouldn’t even show up tonight if I were the Yankees.  I’d forfeit.  Concede the loss and rest the bullpen and hope you can get lucky tomorrow.

Go Yankees.

--Posted at 3:24 pm by SG / 190 Comments | - (0)

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