Friday, October 13, 2017
Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (R): (178.1 IP, 4.74 ERA, 1.7 RA-9 WAR) vs. Astros: Dallas Keuchel (L): (145.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 4.5 RA-9 WAR)
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
5. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
6. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
7. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
8. Matt Holliday (R) DH .231/.316/.432, -0.1 fWAR
9. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .222/.365/.423, 3.0 fWAR
Team Total: 28.0 fWAR
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
6. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B .299/.332/.486, 0.0 fWAR
7. Carlos Beltran (S) DH .231/.283/.383, -1.1 fWAR
8. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
9. Brian McCann (L) C .241/.323/.436, 1.6 fWAR
Team Total: 29.1 fWAR
Masahiro Tanaka’s worst start of the season was against the Astros on May 14 at Yankee Stadium. Tanaka allowed eight earned runs in 1.2 innings, including four homers. That game is actually worse than it appears because of how well he pitched at home (3.22 ERA) vs. on the road (6.48 ERA) this year.
It’s the only game that Tanaka pitched against Houston this year, so it’s the only data point we need. We know that Tanaka is a 43.21729 ERA pitcher against Houston in Yankee Stadium. We know he’s 2.012422 times worse on the road than he is at home. Ergo, Tanaka against Houston in Houston is a 86.97143 ERA pitcher, which means he should allow about 16.09938 runs tonight if he can last 1.2 innings.
On the other hand, Dallas Keuchel has thrown 50.2 career innings against the Yankees and has allowed a grand total of seven earned runs. In order for the Yankees to score as many runs against Keuchel as Tanaka is likely to give up tonight, they would have to face Keuchel for 116 innings.
If the Yankees can last into the 116th inning in tonight’s ALCS opener, they may have a chance to steal this one. Otherwise, I have to say the advantage lies with Houston.
I wouldn’t even show up tonight if I were the Yankees. I’d forfeit. Concede the loss and rest the bullpen and hope you can get lucky tomorrow.
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