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Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.

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Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.

Thursday, March 14, 2013

WSJ: There’s No Defense for Jeter’s Glove

At age 38, with a healthy ankle, Derek Jeter was rated as the worst defensive shortstop in baseball by most every advanced defensive metric in 2012. He was sure-handed as always, but his range—which has never been a strength—declined to near-statue levels.

Derek Jeter will turn 39 years old this season. He is coming off a broken ankle and now has a plate and screws in his leg. He was unable to work out his legs all winter as he rested and rehabbed from the surgery.

If this sounds like a bad combination, well, it probably is.

Jeter played shortstop Wednesday night, his first time playing defense since breaking his ankle exactly five months before. His return brings stability to the position for the undermanned Yankees, who are already down several key players with the start of the season just a few weeks away.

If you look at the 10 worst defensive seasons by a shortstop going back to 2002 using DRS and UZR, Jeter’s name is right ‘up’ there.

Season Name Team Pos Inn UZR
2005 Michael Young TEX SS 1356 -23.2
2007 Hanley Ramirez FLA SS 1301.2 -20.5
2004 Michael Young TEX SS 1386.2 -18.4
2007 Derek Jeter NYY SS 1318.1 -17.9
2009 Yuniesky Betancourt - - - SS 1159 -16.7
2008 Stephen Drew ARI SS 1294.1 -15.8
2012 Derek Jeter NYY SS 1186.1 -15.2
2005 Derek Jeter NYY SS 1352.2 -14.9
2002 Miguel Tejada OAK SS 1424 -14.9
2006 Felipe Lopez - - - SS 1337 -14.7
Season Name Team Pos Inn DRS
2005 Michael Young TEX SS 1356 -32
2009 Orlando Cabrera - - - SS 1388.2 -29
2007 Hanley Ramirez FLA SS 1301.2 -28
2010 Yuniesky Betancourt KCR SS 1331.2 -27
2005 Derek Jeter NYY SS 1352.2 -27
2004 Michael Young TEX SS 1386.2 -27
2007 Derek Jeter NYY SS 1318.1 -24
2006 Felipe Lopez - - - SS 1337 -23
2005 Angel Berroa KCR SS 1360.1 -21
2010 Hanley Ramirez FLA SS 1217 -19
2012 Derek Jeter NYY SS 1186.1 -18

Yeah, the second chart goes to 11. 

I expect Jeter to have another bad defensive year.  Will he challenge Michael Young’s legendary 2005 for worst defensive season by a shortstop in the advanced defensive metric era?  Probably not, because he’s probably not going to play more than 900-1000 innings at short this year.

If you were to use a 3/2/1 weighted average of the last three seasons to estimate Jeter’s 2013 defense in these two metrics it’d look like this.

Season Pos Inn DRS UZR
2010 SS 1303.2 -9 -5
2011 SS 1047.1 -15 -7
2012 SS 1186.1 -18 -15
2013 SS 1159.3 -16 -11

Subtract two more runs for aging if you like.  Might the ankle cost him another five runs?  It’s possible.  That puts him around -23 in DRS and -18 in UZR over 1159 innings.  Average those and you get a -21.  Figure a range of -6 in either direction for uncertainty in a single season’s sample and you’re looking at something like -15 to -27.

Hopefully he’s got another 216 hits in him.

--Posted at 8:11 am by SG / 12 Comments | - (0)

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