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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Monday, February 25, 2013

Who Should Replace Curtis Granderson in LF?

Obviously, losing Curtis Granderson for what looks like around 6 weeks of the regular season stings.  Based on who’s in camp, here are some CAIRO baseline projections for Granderson and the other potential candidates to fill LF.

Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BR/PA wOBA vs L wOBA vs R
Granderson L 650 566 137 21 5 33 15 5 70 159 7 6 .243 .328 .474 .345 89 0.137 .302 .360
Mustelier R 650 600 167 35 2 19 13 8 42 107 14 6 .278 .331 .437 .336 81 0.125 .350 .330
Neal R 650 595 155 34 2 14 10 9 46 135 15 9 .260 .322 .394 .318 71 0.109 .331 .312
Rivera R 650 591 147 28 1 21 4 4 47 91 20 5 .249 .305 .406 .310 70 0.107 .325 .303
Diaz R 650 592 148 32 2 14 9 4 42 130 20 8 .250 .305 .382 .303 67 0.103 .319 .287
Almonte S 650 602 139 28 2 21 17 9 43 169 13 5 .230 .287 .389 .296 65 0.100 .296 .296
Mesa R 650 598 131 28 3 22 21 13 44 206 13 7 .220 .281 .388 .293 63 0.097 .305 .287
Garcia R 650 601 140 38 2 15 7 9 40 125 15 6 .232 .285 .377 .291 61 0.094 .303 .285

BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

I’ve sorted the list by BR/PA and pro-rated everyone to 650 PA.  Ronnier Mustelier projects to be the best offensive replacement in the list and it’s really not close.  However, his defense is questionable.  After that there really isn’t a ton of separation between the rest of the candidates on offense.  One thing worth noting is that every single player with the exception of Almonte projects better than Granderson vs. LHP, which really means you’re only losing that .360 wOBA vs. RHP which should account for at most about 2/3 of the total time Granderson will miss.

I’m kind of hoping Mustelier hits enough to claim the spot because he’s got some positional flexibility and because I fear the Yankees’ preference will be to go with Rivera or Diaz because of their veteranness even if they are both cooked.  But really it probably doesn’t matter who the Yankees decide to go with, at least on offense.  If you give each player 150 PA here’s how many BR they project to provide.

Player BR/150
Granderson 20.6
Mustelier 18.8
Neal 16.4
Rivera 16.1
Diaz 15.4
Almonte 15.0
Mesa 14.6
Garcia 14.1

Defense and baserunning is likely an issue, although I doubt it’d be more than 5 runs over 150 PAs worth of games.  But it may tip the scales in favor of someone like Mesa who by all accounts is a very good defensive player and baserunner(until he gets to third base). 

So at worst, the Yankees should only lose about one win assuming Granderson can come back by mid-May.  Hopefully he doesn’t suffer any lingering effects from this injury.

--Posted at 9:10 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)



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