Monday, February 25, 2013
Who Should Replace Curtis Granderson in LF?
Obviously, losing Curtis Granderson for what looks like around 6 weeks of the regular season stings. Based on who’s in camp, here are some CAIRO baseline projections for Granderson and the other potential candidates to fill LF.
| Player | B | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BR/PA | wOBA vs L | wOBA vs R |
| Granderson | L | 650 | 566 | 137 | 21 | 5 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 70 | 159 | 7 | 6 | .243 | .328 | .474 | .345 | 89 | 0.137 | .302 | .360 |
| Mustelier | R | 650 | 600 | 167 | 35 | 2 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 42 | 107 | 14 | 6 | .278 | .331 | .437 | .336 | 81 | 0.125 | .350 | .330 |
| Neal | R | 650 | 595 | 155 | 34 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 135 | 15 | 9 | .260 | .322 | .394 | .318 | 71 | 0.109 | .331 | .312 |
| Rivera | R | 650 | 591 | 147 | 28 | 1 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 47 | 91 | 20 | 5 | .249 | .305 | .406 | .310 | 70 | 0.107 | .325 | .303 |
| Diaz | R | 650 | 592 | 148 | 32 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 42 | 130 | 20 | 8 | .250 | .305 | .382 | .303 | 67 | 0.103 | .319 | .287 |
| Almonte | S | 650 | 602 | 139 | 28 | 2 | 21 | 17 | 9 | 43 | 169 | 13 | 5 | .230 | .287 | .389 | .296 | 65 | 0.100 | .296 | .296 |
| Mesa | R | 650 | 598 | 131 | 28 | 3 | 22 | 21 | 13 | 44 | 206 | 13 | 7 | .220 | .281 | .388 | .293 | 63 | 0.097 | .305 | .287 |
| Garcia | R | 650 | 601 | 140 | 38 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 125 | 15 | 6 | .232 | .285 | .377 | .291 | 61 | 0.094 | .303 | .285 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
I’ve sorted the list by BR/PA and pro-rated everyone to 650 PA. Ronnier Mustelier projects to be the best offensive replacement in the list and it’s really not close. However, his defense is questionable. After that there really isn’t a ton of separation between the rest of the candidates on offense. One thing worth noting is that every single player with the exception of Almonte projects better than Granderson vs. LHP, which really means you’re only losing that .360 wOBA vs. RHP which should account for at most about 2/3 of the total time Granderson will miss.
I’m kind of hoping Mustelier hits enough to claim the spot because he’s got some positional flexibility and because I fear the Yankees’ preference will be to go with Rivera or Diaz because of their veteranness even if they are both cooked. But really it probably doesn’t matter who the Yankees decide to go with, at least on offense. If you give each player 150 PA here’s how many BR they project to provide.
| Player | BR/150 |
| Granderson | 20.6 |
| Mustelier | 18.8 |
| Neal | 16.4 |
| Rivera | 16.1 |
| Diaz | 15.4 |
| Almonte | 15.0 |
| Mesa | 14.6 |
| Garcia | 14.1 |
Defense and baserunning is likely an issue, although I doubt it’d be more than 5 runs over 150 PAs worth of games. But it may tip the scales in favor of someone like Mesa who by all accounts is a very good defensive player and baserunner(until he gets to third base).
So at worst, the Yankees should only lose about one win assuming Granderson can come back by mid-May. Hopefully he doesn’t suffer any lingering effects from this injury.
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