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Friday, August 20, 2010

Who Are the Best 2010 AL Cy Young Candidates Through Games of August 20

Since rilkefan asked about Trevor Cahill being a Cy Young Candidate in a previous thread, I figured I’d do a quick comparison of the pitchers who should be in the running for the Cy Young Award.

In my mind, the most important statistic to look at when evaluating a pitcher’s value to his team is RA, simply because it is an exact match to how many runs a pitcher has allowed per nine innings.  While it does get influenced by the errors made behind a pitcher, as far as I’m concerned the pitcher is still responsible for what happens after an error is made.  Suppose a pitcher gets two outs in an inning, at which point an error is committed on a play that would have ended the inning.  If the pitcher proceeds to give up ten runs, ERA would ignore those runs, whereas RA would not. 

That being said, when looking at who should be mentioned in the Cy Young, we do want to try and avoid penalizing a pitcher too much for his defensive support or lack thereof.  For that reason, I usually like to also look at a pitcher’s FIP, which focuses only on the HRs, BBs and strikeouts of a pitcher while regressing the batting average on balls in play against them to league average.

That’s not ideal either, because there IS a skill component to a pitcher’s BABIP against.  It’s just that you need a very big sample to ascertain it.  Over at the Book Blog, MGL wrote a nice summary about understanding DIPS (defense independent pitching stats that explains this in more detail.

Using FIP as the exclusive measure of a pitcher’s value is just not common sense to me, because it moves a little too far into the abstract when compared to what actually happened on the field.  So I would never use it by itself.

I think the stat that bridges the gap between RA and FIP in a way that I like is component ERA.  Component ERA takes a look at everything a pitcher’s allowed and converts it to a linear weights run value.  The advantage of this is you give the pitcher credit if he does have BABIP skill, and you remove the impact of the bullpen support they may get.  I find this especially useful for relievers, since a reliever can give up a bunch of runs when relieving another pitcher with men on base that don’t get charged directly to him.  It also looks at the big picture by ignoring the sequence in which events happen, which is something that can be missed by RA.  A pitcher who walks the bases loaded and gives up a grand slam is probably not four times worse than a pitcher who gives up a solo homer followed by three BBs, but that’s what RA would tell you. 

The problem with component ERA is that you don’t necessarily want to absolve the pitcher of his responsibility of a bad sequence, and it does not account for the defense behind the pitcher.

So, my preference is to calculate the runs saved above a replacement level pitcher using RA, FIP and CERA and then take the average of them.  So here’s what that looks like:

Player	Team	Lg	Role	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	CERA	RSAR	FRSAR	CRSAR	aRSAR
Cliff Lee	- - -	AL	SP	169.0	150	57	52	9	10	147	3.04	2.77	2.35	1.71	46.2	53.3	52.0	50.5
Jon Lester	Red Sox	AL	SP	161.0	127	55	50	10	55	165	3.07	2.80	3.13	2.32	47.3	40.5	38.8	42.2
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	AL	SP	189.0	163	68	55	13	52	172	3.24	2.62	3.19	2.65	41.7	36.4	38.5	38.8
John Danks	White Sox	AL	SP	162.3	137	62	60	10	49	125	3.44	3.33	3.40	2.33	41.1	35.9	38.9	38.6
CC Sabathia	Yankees	AL	SP	181.7	165	70	63	15	61	143	3.47	3.12	3.77	2.93	45.4	32.7	31.4	36.5
Francisco Liriano	Twins	AL	SP	151.3	144	58	58	3	50	165	3.45	3.45	2.43	2.76	33.5	45.5	29.1	36.0
Colby Lewis	Rangers	AL	SP	155.0	131	60	58	15	50	154	3.48	3.37	3.54	2.65	39.4	32.9	31.6	34.6
Jered Weaver	Angels	AL	SP	168.0	141	65	58	20	43	186	3.48	3.11	3.30	2.68	35.6	33.2	33.7	34.2
Clay Buchholz	Red Sox	AL	SP	133.3	109	43	35	7	50	89	2.90	2.36	3.76	2.41	41.7	24.2	30.7	32.2
C.J. Wilson	Rangers	AL	SP	149.3	115	59	53	8	70	116	3.56	3.19	3.93	2.57	36.8	25.1	31.8	31.2
Justin Verlander	Tigers	AL	SP	162.3	141	69	68	11	62	152	3.83	3.77	3.45	2.83	31.2	32.3	29.8	31.1
Trevor Cahill	Athletics	AL	SP	148.7	103	49	42	13	44	86	2.97	2.54	4.17	2.14	38.2	13.4	38.7	30.1
Carl Pavano	Twins	AL	SP	174.0	172	70	68	16	29	100	3.62	3.52	3.83	2.99	35.2	25.2	29.0	29.8
Ricky Romero	Blue Jays	AL	SP	160.0	145	68	61	11	58	136	3.83	3.43	3.58	3.00	29.7	28.6	26.5	28.3
David Price	Rays	AL	SP	151.7	127	55	48	10	64	141	3.26	2.85	3.54	2.94	34.0	24.2	26.1	28.1
Gavin Floyd	White Sox	AL	SP	156.3	158	75	69	11	48	129	4.32	3.97	3.44	3.13	24.3	33.9	23.6	27.3
Zack Greinke	Royals	AL	SP	166.0	162	83	72	15	37	139	4.50	3.90	3.50	2.98	20.4	33.1	27.7	27.1
Gio Gonzalez	Athletics	AL	SP	154.0	129	61	58	10	70	127	3.56	3.39	3.80	2.99	29.3	20.2	25.5	25.0
Mark Buehrle	White Sox	AL	SP	160.3	178	74	69	13	35	68	4.15	3.87	4.06	3.33	27.9	23.7	20.6	24.1
Phil Hughes	Yankees	AL	SP	140.7	132	62	61	18	38	116	3.97	3.90	4.02	3.12	27.4	21.4	21.3	23.4
Andy Pettitte	Yankees	AL	SP	115.7	101	41	37	12	38	90	3.19	2.88	4.06	2.93	32.5	17.2	20.0	23.2
Jason Vargas	Mariners	AL	SP	145.7	132	53	51	14	42	92	3.27	3.15	4.07	3.02	31.5	13.8	23.7	23.0
Shaun Marcum	Blue Jays	AL	SP	144.0	134	63	59	18	33	120	3.94	3.69	3.95	3.14	25.0	19.8	21.6	22.1
Dallas Braden	Athletics	AL	SP	136.0	131	59	52	13	26	86	3.90	3.44	3.82	3.05	20.8	17.5	21.7	20.0
Jeremy Guthrie	Orioles	AL	SP	161.0	152	75	71	19	42	84	4.19	3.97	4.68	3.25	25.3	10.9	22.1	19.5
Jeff Niemann	Rays	AL	SP	141.3	121	50	49	19	44	102	3.18	3.12	4.54	3.31	32.9	6.8	18.5	19.4
Brian Duensing	Twins	AL	RP	76.3	61	18	17	5	19	42	2.12	2.00	3.78	2.22	26.4	11.4	19.2	19.0
Brett Cecil	Blue Jays	AL	SP	125.0	112	57	55	13	39	89	4.10	3.96	4.06	3.00	19.4	15.6	20.7	18.5
Brandon Morrow	Blue Jays	AL	SP	131.3	121	68	65	10	60	153	4.66	4.45	3.39	3.48	12.2	26.2	14.7	17.7
Mariano Rivera	Yankees	AL	RP	44.3	24	7	5	1	7	37	1.42	1.02	2.50	0.49	19.3	14.1	19.7	17.7
Matt Garza	Rays	AL	SP	156.3	139	68	65	21	47	124	3.91	3.74	4.40	3.46	23.7	10.1	17.7	17.2
Joaquin Benoit	Rays	AL	RP	44.0	20	6	6	4	7	61	1.23	1.23	2.09	0.54	18.1	14.0	19.3	17.1
Max Scherzer	Tigers	AL	SP	137.7	127	66	59	15	56	126	4.31	3.86	4.12	3.58	18.9	17.2	13.8	16.6
Daisuke Matsuzaka	Red Sox	AL	SP	110.0	96	53	51	9	51	95	4.34	4.17	4.06	3.15	16.9	16.2	16.3	16.5
Darren O’Day	Rangers	AL	RP	49.0	35	9	8	1	10	30	1.65	1.47	3.16	1.42	20.4	12.3	16.7	16.4
Daniel Bard	Red Sox	AL	RP	54.7	31	13	12	5	20	57	2.14	1.98	3.46	1.58	19.4	11.6	17.7	16.2
Kevin Slowey	Twins	AL	SP	134.3	140	64	63	17	25	98	4.29	4.22	4.03	3.52	17.2	16.4	14.5	16.0
Joel Pineiro	Angels	AL	SP	131.3	140	62	61	13	32	83	4.25	4.18	3.98	3.53	16.6	16.1	14.0	15.6
Francisco Rodriguez	Angels	AL	RP	36.3	33	16	16	3	16	31	3.96	3.96	3.97	3.34	23.3	16.9	4.6	14.9
John Lackey	Red Sox	AL	SP	161.7	186	87	83	14	59	104	4.84	4.62	4.23	4.04	15.7	21.0	7.9	14.9
Doug Fister	Mariners	AL	SP	121.7	130	57	53	9	23	65	4.22	3.92	3.76	3.37	13.6	15.8	15.1	14.8
Jake Peavy	White Sox	AL	SP	107.0	98	55	55	13	34	93	4.63	4.63	4.13	3.21	13.0	15.0	15.1	14.4
Fausto Carmona	Indians	AL	SP	156.3	160	82	72	10	54	84	4.72	4.14	4.17	3.60	11.6	15.9	15.4	14.3
Joakim Soria	Royals	AL	RP	51.0	45	11	11	4	14	55	1.94	1.94	3.00	2.55	18.7	12.8	11.0	14.1
Rafael Soriano	Rays	AL	RP	47.3	29	11	9	3	10	40	2.09	1.71	3.03	1.18	14.9	10.1	17.4	14.1
Ervin Santana	Angels	AL	SP	167.0	166	79	73	22	55	131	4.26	3.93	4.51	3.91	21.0	10.6	10.7	14.1
Matt Thornton	White Sox	AL	RP	47.3	37	14	14	3	15	64	2.66	2.66	2.40	2.23	14.1	15.6	11.9	13.8
Darren Oliver	Rangers	AL	RP	49.7	42	17	14	3	13	56	3.08	2.54	2.64	2.36	12.7	15.3	11.7	13.3
J.J. Putz	White Sox	AL	RP	45.0	32	14	13	4	11	52	2.80	2.60	2.84	1.77	12.7	12.6	13.6	12.9
Brett Anderson	Athletics	AL	SP	56.0	53	20	18	2	8	39	3.21	2.89	2.91	2.42	12.8	12.8	12.9	12.9

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching
CERA: Component ERA
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher using park-adjusted RA minus pitcher RA divided by nine times IP
FRSAR: RSAR using FIP instead of RA
CRSAR: RSAR using CERA instead of RA
aRSAR: Average of RSAR, FRSAR, and CRSAR

It’s Cliff Lee and everyone else at this point, although Felix Hernandez will get a big boost after his perfect game tonight.  Trevor Cahill’s having a great year, but he hasn;t thrown enough innings to really be in the top five at this point.