The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Yankees (69-63) @ Blue Jays (67-66), Friday, August 29, 2014, 7:07pm
(49 Comments - 8/30/2014 7:59:08 am)

NY Times: In Season of 63 Losses So Far, Yankees Find Few as Agonizing as This One
(29 Comments - 8/29/2014 5:37:03 pm)

Yankees (69-62) @ Tigers (71-60),  Thursday, August 28, 2014, 1:08pm
(93 Comments - 8/29/2014 7:31:32 am)

NYDN: Yankees sign Mets reject Chris Young to minor-league deal
(10 Comments - 8/28/2014 1:11:26 pm)

Yankees.com: Detroit sock city: Yanks hammer Price, gain in WC race
(9 Comments - 8/28/2014 1:03:08 am)

Yankees (68-62) @ Tigers (71-59), Wednesday, August 27, 2014, 7:08pm
(85 Comments - 8/27/2014 11:10:42 pm)

NYDN: Yankees GM Cashman reveals how the last-minute deal for Martin Prado went down
(17 Comments - 8/27/2014 7:12:33 pm)

Yankees.com: McCarthy battles, but Yankees’ win streak snapped
(6 Comments - 8/27/2014 10:36:39 am)

Yankees (68-61) @ Tigers (70-59), Tuesday, August 26, 2014, 7:08pm
(71 Comments - 8/26/2014 11:27:45 pm)

Yankees.com: Yanks’ streak to five after makeup-game win in KC
(12 Comments - 8/26/2014 8:20:57 pm)



Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Friday, August 20, 2010

Who Are the Best 2010 AL Cy Young Candidates Through Games of August 20

Since rilkefan asked about Trevor Cahill being a Cy Young Candidate in a previous thread, I figured I’d do a quick comparison of the pitchers who should be in the running for the Cy Young Award.

In my mind, the most important statistic to look at when evaluating a pitcher’s value to his team is RA, simply because it is an exact match to how many runs a pitcher has allowed per nine innings.  While it does get influenced by the errors made behind a pitcher, as far as I’m concerned the pitcher is still responsible for what happens after an error is made.  Suppose a pitcher gets two outs in an inning, at which point an error is committed on a play that would have ended the inning.  If the pitcher proceeds to give up ten runs, ERA would ignore those runs, whereas RA would not. 

That being said, when looking at who should be mentioned in the Cy Young, we do want to try and avoid penalizing a pitcher too much for his defensive support or lack thereof.  For that reason, I usually like to also look at a pitcher’s FIP, which focuses only on the HRs, BBs and strikeouts of a pitcher while regressing the batting average on balls in play against them to league average.

That’s not ideal either, because there IS a skill component to a pitcher’s BABIP against.  It’s just that you need a very big sample to ascertain it.  Over at the Book Blog, MGL wrote a nice summary about understanding DIPS (defense independent pitching stats that explains this in more detail.

Using FIP as the exclusive measure of a pitcher’s value is just not common sense to me, because it moves a little too far into the abstract when compared to what actually happened on the field.  So I would never use it by itself.

I think the stat that bridges the gap between RA and FIP in a way that I like is component ERA.  Component ERA takes a look at everything a pitcher’s allowed and converts it to a linear weights run value.  The advantage of this is you give the pitcher credit if he does have BABIP skill, and you remove the impact of the bullpen support they may get.  I find this especially useful for relievers, since a reliever can give up a bunch of runs when relieving another pitcher with men on base that don’t get charged directly to him.  It also looks at the big picture by ignoring the sequence in which events happen, which is something that can be missed by RA.  A pitcher who walks the bases loaded and gives up a grand slam is probably not four times worse than a pitcher who gives up a solo homer followed by three BBs, but that’s what RA would tell you. 

The problem with component ERA is that you don’t necessarily want to absolve the pitcher of his responsibility of a bad sequence, and it does not account for the defense behind the pitcher.

So, my preference is to calculate the runs saved above a replacement level pitcher using RA, FIP and CERA and then take the average of them.  So here’s what that looks like:

Player Team Lg Role IP H R ER HR BB SO RA ERA FIP CERA RSAR FRSAR CRSAR aRSAR
Cliff Lee - - - AL SP 169.0 150 57 52 9 10 147 3.04 2.77 2.35 1.71 46.2 53.3 52.0 50.5
Jon Lester Red Sox AL SP 161.0 127 55 50 10 55 165 3.07 2.80 3.13 2.32 47.3 40.5 38.8 42.2
Felix Hernandez Mariners AL SP 189.0 163 68 55 13 52 172 3.24 2.62 3.19 2.65 41.7 36.4 38.5 38.8
John Danks White Sox AL SP 162.3 137 62 60 10 49 125 3.44 3.33 3.40 2.33 41.1 35.9 38.9 38.6
CC Sabathia Yankees AL SP 181.7 165 70 63 15 61 143 3.47 3.12 3.77 2.93 45.4 32.7 31.4 36.5
Francisco Liriano Twins AL SP 151.3 144 58 58 3 50 165 3.45 3.45 2.43 2.76 33.5 45.5 29.1 36.0
Colby Lewis Rangers AL SP 155.0 131 60 58 15 50 154 3.48 3.37 3.54 2.65 39.4 32.9 31.6 34.6
Jered Weaver Angels AL SP 168.0 141 65 58 20 43 186 3.48 3.11 3.30 2.68 35.6 33.2 33.7 34.2
Clay Buchholz Red Sox AL SP 133.3 109 43 35 7 50 89 2.90 2.36 3.76 2.41 41.7 24.2 30.7 32.2
C.J. Wilson Rangers AL SP 149.3 115 59 53 8 70 116 3.56 3.19 3.93 2.57 36.8 25.1 31.8 31.2
Justin Verlander Tigers AL SP 162.3 141 69 68 11 62 152 3.83 3.77 3.45 2.83 31.2 32.3 29.8 31.1
Trevor Cahill Athletics AL SP 148.7 103 49 42 13 44 86 2.97 2.54 4.17 2.14 38.2 13.4 38.7 30.1
Carl Pavano Twins AL SP 174.0 172 70 68 16 29 100 3.62 3.52 3.83 2.99 35.2 25.2 29.0 29.8
Ricky Romero Blue Jays AL SP 160.0 145 68 61 11 58 136 3.83 3.43 3.58 3.00 29.7 28.6 26.5 28.3
David Price Rays AL SP 151.7 127 55 48 10 64 141 3.26 2.85 3.54 2.94 34.0 24.2 26.1 28.1
Gavin Floyd White Sox AL SP 156.3 158 75 69 11 48 129 4.32 3.97 3.44 3.13 24.3 33.9 23.6 27.3
Zack Greinke Royals AL SP 166.0 162 83 72 15 37 139 4.50 3.90 3.50 2.98 20.4 33.1 27.7 27.1
Gio Gonzalez Athletics AL SP 154.0 129 61 58 10 70 127 3.56 3.39 3.80 2.99 29.3 20.2 25.5 25.0
Mark Buehrle White Sox AL SP 160.3 178 74 69 13 35 68 4.15 3.87 4.06 3.33 27.9 23.7 20.6 24.1
Phil Hughes Yankees AL SP 140.7 132 62 61 18 38 116 3.97 3.90 4.02 3.12 27.4 21.4 21.3 23.4
Andy Pettitte Yankees AL SP 115.7 101 41 37 12 38 90 3.19 2.88 4.06 2.93 32.5 17.2 20.0 23.2
Jason Vargas Mariners AL SP 145.7 132 53 51 14 42 92 3.27 3.15 4.07 3.02 31.5 13.8 23.7 23.0
Shaun Marcum Blue Jays AL SP 144.0 134 63 59 18 33 120 3.94 3.69 3.95 3.14 25.0 19.8 21.6 22.1
Dallas Braden Athletics AL SP 136.0 131 59 52 13 26 86 3.90 3.44 3.82 3.05 20.8 17.5 21.7 20.0
Jeremy Guthrie Orioles AL SP 161.0 152 75 71 19 42 84 4.19 3.97 4.68 3.25 25.3 10.9 22.1 19.5
Jeff Niemann Rays AL SP 141.3 121 50 49 19 44 102 3.18 3.12 4.54 3.31 32.9 6.8 18.5 19.4
Brian Duensing Twins AL RP 76.3 61 18 17 5 19 42 2.12 2.00 3.78 2.22 26.4 11.4 19.2 19.0
Brett Cecil Blue Jays AL SP 125.0 112 57 55 13 39 89 4.10 3.96 4.06 3.00 19.4 15.6 20.7 18.5
Brandon Morrow Blue Jays AL SP 131.3 121 68 65 10 60 153 4.66 4.45 3.39 3.48 12.2 26.2 14.7 17.7
Mariano Rivera Yankees AL RP 44.3 24 7 5 1 7 37 1.42 1.02 2.50 0.49 19.3 14.1 19.7 17.7
Matt Garza Rays AL SP 156.3 139 68 65 21 47 124 3.91 3.74 4.40 3.46 23.7 10.1 17.7 17.2
Joaquin Benoit Rays AL RP 44.0 20 6 6 4 7 61 1.23 1.23 2.09 0.54 18.1 14.0 19.3 17.1
Max Scherzer Tigers AL SP 137.7 127 66 59 15 56 126 4.31 3.86 4.12 3.58 18.9 17.2 13.8 16.6
Daisuke Matsuzaka Red Sox AL SP 110.0 96 53 51 9 51 95 4.34 4.17 4.06 3.15 16.9 16.2 16.3 16.5
Darren O’Day Rangers AL RP 49.0 35 9 8 1 10 30 1.65 1.47 3.16 1.42 20.4 12.3 16.7 16.4
Daniel Bard Red Sox AL RP 54.7 31 13 12 5 20 57 2.14 1.98 3.46 1.58 19.4 11.6 17.7 16.2
Kevin Slowey Twins AL SP 134.3 140 64 63 17 25 98 4.29 4.22 4.03 3.52 17.2 16.4 14.5 16.0
Joel Pineiro Angels AL SP 131.3 140 62 61 13 32 83 4.25 4.18 3.98 3.53 16.6 16.1 14.0 15.6
Francisco Rodriguez Angels AL RP 36.3 33 16 16 3 16 31 3.96 3.96 3.97 3.34 23.3 16.9 4.6 14.9
John Lackey Red Sox AL SP 161.7 186 87 83 14 59 104 4.84 4.62 4.23 4.04 15.7 21.0 7.9 14.9
Doug Fister Mariners AL SP 121.7 130 57 53 9 23 65 4.22 3.92 3.76 3.37 13.6 15.8 15.1 14.8
Jake Peavy White Sox AL SP 107.0 98 55 55 13 34 93 4.63 4.63 4.13 3.21 13.0 15.0 15.1 14.4
Fausto Carmona Indians AL SP 156.3 160 82 72 10 54 84 4.72 4.14 4.17 3.60 11.6 15.9 15.4 14.3
Joakim Soria Royals AL RP 51.0 45 11 11 4 14 55 1.94 1.94 3.00 2.55 18.7 12.8 11.0 14.1
Rafael Soriano Rays AL RP 47.3 29 11 9 3 10 40 2.09 1.71 3.03 1.18 14.9 10.1 17.4 14.1
Ervin Santana Angels AL SP 167.0 166 79 73 22 55 131 4.26 3.93 4.51 3.91 21.0 10.6 10.7 14.1
Matt Thornton White Sox AL RP 47.3 37 14 14 3 15 64 2.66 2.66 2.40 2.23 14.1 15.6 11.9 13.8
Darren Oliver Rangers AL RP 49.7 42 17 14 3 13 56 3.08 2.54 2.64 2.36 12.7 15.3 11.7 13.3
J.J. Putz White Sox AL RP 45.0 32 14 13 4 11 52 2.80 2.60 2.84 1.77 12.7 12.6 13.6 12.9
Brett Anderson Athletics AL SP 56.0 53 20 18 2 8 39 3.21 2.89 2.91 2.42 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.9

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching
CERA: Component ERA
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher using park-adjusted RA minus pitcher RA divided by nine times IP
FRSAR: RSAR using FIP instead of RA
CRSAR: RSAR using CERA instead of RA
aRSAR: Average of RSAR, FRSAR, and CRSAR

It’s Cliff Lee and everyone else at this point, although Felix Hernandez will get a big boost after his perfect game tonight.  Trevor Cahill’s having a great year, but he hasn;t thrown enough innings to really be in the top five at this point.

--Posted at 12:40 pm by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)



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