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Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Where Do We Go From Here (Outfield/DH Edition)?

Picking up from the prior post, here’s a look at how the Yankee outfield and DH spots project heading into 2011.

Position	Rank	Player	%	PA	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	BR	BRAR	Def	WAR
LF	1	Gardner, Brett	73.3%	550	.270/.358/.372	.329	65	9	13	2.2
	2	Curtis, Colin	10.0%	75	.242/.303/.361	.295	7	-1	0	-0.1
	3	Russo, Kevin	10.0%	75	.243/.305/.328	.286	6	-1	0	-0.1
	4	Mesa, Melky	6.5%	49	.211/.279/.372	.286	4	-1	0	-0.1
	5	Golson, Greg	0.1%	1	.231/.272/.351	.272	0	0	0	0.0
	Total			750	.264/.346/.366	.321	78	6	13	1.9

 

wOBA: weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level
Def: Projected defense in terms of runs saved above/below average

We start in LF.  One note about wOBA here is I do NOT include SB/CS, so when you compare them to Fangraphs you’ll see a big gap for high SB guys.  I do this because I like to look at platoon splits a lot with wOBA and base running has no impact there.  Figure you should add between .015 and .020 points to any guy who’s likely to steal 30-50 bases at a high success rate.

BR and BRAR do include SB/CS though, so that’s the main thing to look at here.

Anyway, I think Gardner’s offensive projection is a bit pessimistic, but I also think his defensive projection is a bit optimistic.  His MLEs still drag his offensive projections down a bit, but that’s starting to become less of an issue.  He projects to be a bit above average overall as a LF.

The problem the Yankees have right now will become apparent as we move around the OF though, and that’s the fact that they don’t really have any great options for fourth OF.  I’ve listed the non-starting OF on the 40 man roster in this depth chart.  Melky Mesa’s got the tools to be a prospect, but not the performance to this point.  He still strikes out way too much to be an MLB hitter (297 times in 943 AB the past two seasons at Charleston(A) and Tampa(A+).  He’s also 24, which means he’s probably not young enough to expect enough improvement to become an MLB player, although you never know.

How about center field?  Funny you should ask.

Position	Rank	Player	%	PA	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	BR	BRAR	Def	WAR
CF	1	Granderson, Curtis	80.0%	600	.252/.335/.462	.346	78	25	3	2.8
	2	Golson, Greg	13.3%	100	.231/.272/.351	.272	8	-1	0	-0.1
	3	Gardner, Brett	6.7%	50	.270/.358/.372	.329	6	1	0	0.1
	4				.000/.000/.000	.000	0	0	0	0.0
	5				.000/.000/.000	.000	0	0	0	0.0
	Total			750	.251/.328/.441	.335	92	25	3	2.9

Curtis Granderson’s projection combines pretty good offense and defense and makes him almost 3 wins better than a theoretical replacement level CF.  If his hot end to the season was the result of the changes in his swing, he may be able to exceed that projection, but even if he doesn’t that’s plenty good.

Gardner’s the actual #2 CF, but since I already gave him 550 PA in LF I’m only giving him 50 in CF.  Golson is the only other OF on the 40 man roster who has played much CF.  From what I’ve seen and from what the scouting reports say, he definitely has the glove for CF.  Unfortunately, he doesn’t even have the bat for backup catcher.

Then we have right field.

Position	Rank	Player	%	PA	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	BR	BRAR	Def	WAR
RF	1	Swisher, Nick	83.3%	625	.260/.354/.470	.357	83	19	2	2.1
	2	Curtis, Colin	10.0%	75	.242/.303/.361	.295	7	-1	0	-0.1
	3	Russo, Kevin	4.0%	30	.243/.305/.328	.286	2	-1	0	-0.1
	4	Mesa, Melky	1.3%	10	.211/.279/.372	.286	1	0	0	0.0
	5	Golson, Greg	1.3%	10	.231/.272/.351	.272	1	0	0	0.0
	Total			750	.257/.347/.452	.348	92	17	2	1.9

There’s nothing wrong with Nick Swisher in RF, but as with LF we see the problem once you get past him.

So we’ve identified fourth OF as a possible place for an upgrade. So how should the Yankees approach it?

Obviously, the first thing you’d look for is offense.  So what outfielders are available that project to outhit Messrs. Curtis, Russo, Mesa and Golson? 

Name	mlbam	Bats	wOBA	Type
Winn, Randy	133160	B	.317	NA
Young, Delwyn	434704	B	.315	NA
Hawpe, Brad	425547	L	.350	B
Damon, Johnny	113028	L	.340	B
Edmonds, Jim	113744	L	.330	NA
Lewis, Fred	430930	L	.330	NA
Nix, Laynce	425556	L	.330	NA
Carter, Chris	452080	L	.324	NA
Gerut, Jody	425506	L	.324	NA
Ankiel, Rick	150449	L	.323	NA
Hermida, Jeremy	435181	L	.322	NA
Harris, Willie	407483	L	.321	NA
Church, Ryan	425508	L	.318	NA
Wise, Dewayne	276547	L	.316	NA
Gross, Gabe	408212	L	.314	NA
Inglett, Joe	446928	L	.314	NA
Podsednik, Scott	325392	L	.311	B
Sullivan, Cory	430622	L	.302	NA
Anderson, Garret	110236	L	.300	NA
Patterson, Corey	279913	L	.282	NA
Ramirez, Manny	120903	R	.395	A
Ordonez, Magglio	120044	R	.369	A
Dye, Jermaine	113679	R	.346	NA
Hairston, Scott	430668	R	.326	NA
Nady, Xavier	294558	R	.326	NA
Kearns, Austin	400290	R	.326	NA
Kapler, Gabe	137002	R	.325	NA
Thames, Marcus	407801	R	.324	NA
Milledge, Lastings	451186	R	.316	NA
Guillen, Jose	115229	R	.316	NA
Jones, Andruw	116662	R	.315	NA
Johnson, Reed	407862	R	.309	NA
Hall, Bill	407849	R	.306	NA
Bloomquist, Willie	217100	R	.298	NA

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Yankees aren’t going to go for Randy Winn 2, Electric Boogaloo.  Delwyn Young is a switch-hitter who can also play bad defense at 2B/3B and corner OF.  He’d probably outhit the other fourth OF candidates on the Yankees, but once you factor in defense I don’t know that he’s much of an upgrade.  I suppose his defensive flexibility makes him useful in an emergency, but I don’t know if it’s enough to make him someone the Yankees should consider.

Brad Hawpe looks like he can hit, but he’s absolutely horrendous defensively and I am very skeptical of trying to figure out how a guy who’s spent most of his career in Colorado will hit elsewhere. 

Hmm, I’m drawing a blank here.  Damon Johnny?  That name sounds familiar for some reason.

Honestly, none of the lefty hitting OF excite me and they don’t really address the platoon issue that I’m going to talk about after I get through this list.

Obviously Manny Ramirez and Magglio Ordonez would be nice additions to any team’s offense, but they’re probably likely to get full-time jobs and as Type A players they’d cost you a draft pick.  I’d ignore Jermaine Dye’s projection since he didn’t play last year, and he’s a bad enough defensive OF that he probably gives away any offensive value.

That brings me to Scott Hairston.  He is a right-handed hitting OF who can play all three OF spots, although he’s primarily been a LF.  Given the construct of the Yankee OF, adding a RHB makes sense.

Player	Pos	Bats	Projected wOBA	Vs L	Vs R
Brett Gardner	LF	L	.329	.310	.336
Colin Curtis	OF	L	.295	.274	.299
Curtis Granderson	CF	L	.346	.297	.363
Greg Golson	OF	R	.272	.279	.259
Kevin Russo	OF	R	.286	.294	.277
Marcus Thames	LF-RF	R	.327	.340	.318
Nick Swisher	LF-RF	B	.357	.367	.353
Scott Hairston	LF	R	.327	.345	.317

Hairston would project as the second-best Yankee OF vs. LHP, which would allow you to stick him in LF when you want to rest Gardner or Granderson, with Gardner moving to CF on the days you want to rest Granderson.  Over 200 PA, the difference between Hairston and Granderson’s wOBA vs. LHP is about 8.5 runs, which is a bit less than one win.

I wouldn’t be opposed to the Yankees bringing back Marcus Thames if they can’t get another RH outfielder, but he really shouldn’t be in the OF and I don’t know if he’s going to be needed enough at DH to warrant the roster spot.

Speaking of DH.

Position	Rank	Player	%	PA	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	BR	BRAR	Def	WAR
DH	1	Posada, Jorge	72.4%	525	.267/.354/.458	.354	69	7	0	0.7
	2	Rodriguez, Alex	10.3%	75	.281/.372/.526	.384	12	3	0	0.3
	3	Jeter, Derek	10.3%	75	.290/.360/.406	.342	9	0	0	0.0
	4	Swisher, Nick	6.9%	50	.260/.354/.470	.357	7	1	0	0.1
	5				.000/.000/.000	.000	0	0	0	0.0
	Total			725	.271/.357/.460	.356	89	10	0	1.0

I restricted DH to 725 PA because the ludicrous interleague play that still infests MLB means the Yankees will have to allow their pitchers to strike out three times a game for nine games.

Jorge Posada’s bat still projects very well as a catcher.  Unfortunately, as a DH it’s nothing special.  A lot of catchers end up hitting better when not catching so Posada may be able to beat that projection, although I actually think his projection is too optimistic.  Given his contract, the Yankees probably aren’t going to look for someone else to be their primary DH and are probably going to hope Posada can hit reasonably well. I hope he does, especially if this is his swan song.  He’s been criminally underrated and should probably be a Hall of Famer, but I think he’s a long-shot.

The Yankees will also probably use DH to give some of their players a half-day off, so I threw a few of those guys in there.  For the hell of it since I’m sure someone will ask, if the Yankees signed Manny Ramirez here’s how he’d project.

Player	ramirez, manny
%	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	BB	SO	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BRAR	Def	WAR
80%	455	119	26	1	23	2	63	81	.313	.419	.573	.425	83	32	0	3.2
65%	452	116	25	1	22	2	61	81	.306	.407	.552	.412	78	28	0	2.8
Baseline	450	113	23	1	21	1	59	90	.299	.396	.531	.398	73	24	0	2.4
35%	428	102	20	0	17	1	52	76	.283	.370	.486	.369	62	15	0	1.5
20%	405	91	16	0	14	0	45	71	.268	.345	.441	.339	52	7	0	0.7

I think he’d probably end up closer to that 35% projection but that’s still about a one win upgrade on Posada.  I don’t know if he’s worth the headaches and the drama that will come with him though, and I’m personally not a fan of the guy so I’d rather not see him in pinstripes.

Unless he’d sign for $4M for a year.

So if the Yankees add Scott Hairston they can probably improve by another win.  That probably moves them into about 90 win territory. 

But the real improvements to the team are probably going to have to come from the pitching staff, which will be the subject of the next post in this series.