Wednesday, October 31, 2012
What Might the 2013 Yankees Look Like If They Do Nothing This Offseason?
I’m done with my first batch of 2013 CAIRO projections although I still have to check for errors so they’re probably not ready for public consumption. But that doesn’t mean I can’t use them to take a stab at projecting the Yankees for 2013 given the roster they have right now.
I’ll warn you now, it ain’t pretty. Here’s the lineup and bench.
| Lineup | Player | Pos | PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | Outs | BR | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| 1 | Brett Gardner | LF | 525 | .265/.353/.376 | .320 | 340 | 65 | 13 | 15 | 2.8 |
| 2 | Derek Jeter | SS | 600 | .291/.343/.390 | .317 | 394 | 69 | 23 | -7 | 1.6 |
| 3 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 650 | .300/.359/.512 | .358 | 417 | 100 | 45 | 0 | 4.5 |
| 4 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | 600 | .253/.344/.472 | .338 | 394 | 84 | 20 | 4 | 2.4 |
| 5 | Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 500 | .267/.353/.442 | .337 | 324 | 67 | 25 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 6 | Curtis Granderson | CF | 600 | .243/.331/.489 | .335 | 401 | 85 | 35 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 7 | Chris Dickerson | RF | 400 | .250/.341/.386 | .315 | 264 | 48 | 9 | 0 | 0.9 |
| 8 | Ronnier Mustelier | DH | 450 | .268/.321/.420 | .312 | 305 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 0.3 |
| 9 | Francisco Cervelli | C | 410 | .244/.315/.336 | .287 | 281 | 38 | 10 | -7 | 0.3 |
| Starters | 4735 | .267/.341/.431 | .327 | 3119 | 610 | 183 | 5 | 18.8 | ||
| Bench | Player | Pos | PA | avg/obp/slg | wOBA | Outs | BR | BRAR | Def | WAR |
| David Adams | IF | 275 | .250/.318/.378 | .299 | 187 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 0.6 | |
| Eduardo Nunez | IF | 250 | .253/.302/.351 | .283 | 174 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0.3 | |
| Chris Stewart | C | 200 | .230/.300/.328 | .275 | 140 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0.4 | |
| Jayson Nix | IF | 150 | .224/.287/.384 | .281 | 107 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0.3 | |
| Melky Mesa | OF | 125 | .215/.276/.370 | .272 | 91 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Austin Romine | C | 100 | .237/.293/.356 | .280 | 71 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0.2 | |
| Corban Joseph | 2B | 100 | .238/.317/.364 | .296 | 68 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0.2 | |
| Zoilo Almonte | IF | 100 | .228/.280/.383 | .278 | 72 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | |
| Melky Mesa | OF | 100 | .215/.276/.370 | .272 | 72 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Bench | 1400 | .236/.298/.363 | .283 | 983 | 134 | 20 | 0 | 2.0 | ||
| Team Total | 6135 | .259/.331/.415 | .317 | 4101 | 744 | 203 | 5 | 20.8 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level (adjusted for position)
I haven’t done defensive projections for 2013 so those are based on 2012 and probably shouldn’t be focused on much.
And the pitching staff.
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| SP1 | CC Sabathia | 220 | 206 | 93 | 21 | 56 | 194 | 3.82 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 5.2 |
| SP2 | Phil Hughes | 200 | 203 | 107 | 32 | 57 | 157 | 4.81 | 4.44 | 4.46 | 2.5 |
| SP3 | Ivan Nova | 175 | 187 | 98 | 23 | 66 | 124 | 4.99 | 4.62 | 4.59 | 1.8 |
| SP4 | David Phelps | 175 | 192 | 90 | 23 | 59 | 125 | 4.74 | 4.31 | 4.40 | 2.3 |
| SP5 | Adam Warren | 150 | 179 | 88 | 16 | 57 | 92 | 5.03 | 4.68 | 4.46 | 1.5 |
| SP6 | Brett Marshall | 50 | 66 | 37 | 7 | 25 | 30 | 6.29 | 5.64 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| SP7 | Cory Arbiso | 25 | 37 | 22 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 7.14 | 6.25 | 5.67 | -0.3 |
| SP8 | Shaeffer Hall | 25 | 35 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 6.25 | 5.37 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| SP9 | Vidal Nuno | 20 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 5.84 | 5.05 | 4.94 | 0.0 |
| SP10 | Nik Turley | 20 | 27 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 6.19 | 5.48 | 5.34 | -0.1 |
| Starters | 1060 | 1161 | 580 | 137 | 356 | 775 | 4.93 | 4.41 | 4.35 | 12.8 | |
| Role | Player | IP | H | R | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| CL | David Robertson | 70 | 56 | 22 | 5 | 29 | 86 | 2.90 | 2.68 | 2.75 | 1.9 |
| SU | Boone Logan | 70 | 65 | 31 | 7 | 31 | 72 | 3.97 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 1.1 |
| SU | Joba Chamberlain | 60 | 62 | 31 | 8 | 21 | 53 | 4.67 | 4.12 | 4.15 | 0.5 |
| MR | Mark Montgomery | 50 | 46 | 19 | 3 | 29 | 56 | 3.36 | 3.25 | 3.27 | 1.1 |
| MR | David Aardsma | 40 | 35 | 22 | 6 | 21 | 36 | 5.02 | 4.76 | 4.76 | 0.2 |
| MR | Clay Rapada | 40 | 37 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 33 | 4.16 | 3.75 | 3.67 | 0.5 |
| MR | Cody Eppley | 40 | 42 | 21 | 4 | 18 | 31 | 4.57 | 4.12 | 4.07 | 0.4 |
| MR | Cesar Cabral | 10 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 5.16 | 4.72 | 4.23 | 0.0 |
| LR | Chase Whitley | 10 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 5.36 | 4.80 | 4.94 | 0.0 |
| Relievers | 390 | 366 | 176 | 37 | 175 | 381 | 4.07 | 3.74 | 3.73 | 5.6 | |
| Total | 1450 | 1526 | 757 | 174 | 531 | 1156 | 4.70 | 4.23 | 4.18 | 18.4 |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
WAR: Wins above replacement (using RA, adjusted for role)
Yeesh, that rotation is the stuff of nightmares…
CAIRO LOVES Mark Montgomery, but I think it needs to chill a bit on him. He’s been outstanding so far in the minors, but so have lots of relievers in the past that didn’t turn out all that well. I’m optimistic on him, but not for early 2013. It continues to dig David Robertson too, as I think it should. It’s not particularly fond of most of the rest of the pen, although as Chamberlain and Aardsma get healthier they are probably good bets to beat those projections.
A team that scores 744 runs and allows 757 would project as around a .495 winning percentage or 80 win team. It’s worse than that because CAIRO was specifically created to make the Yankees look better than they are, which means they’re more like a 40 win team. I swapped Stewart and Cervelli’s playing time to see if it the defensive difference between made things better but it didn’t really matter.
Obviously it’s still early, they have a lot of moves to make, etc, Getting Hiroki Kuroda re-signed and replacing the SP7-10 innings with Adam Warren probably adds close to five wins. Getting a right-handed bat whose name doesn’t begin with Andruw and end with Jones to platoon with Chris Dickerson probably helps too. Better health from Brett Gardner and Alex Rodriguez (yeah, right) would also help I guess. Bringing back Russell Martin (.232/.327/.385 and 2.1 WAR projection) would add a couple of wins too.
But they’ve got their work cut out for them.
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