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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

What Might the 2013 Yankees Look Like If They Do Nothing This Offseason?

I’m done with my first batch of 2013 CAIRO projections although I still have to check for errors so they’re probably not ready for public consumption.  But that doesn’t mean I can’t use them to take a stab at projecting the Yankees for 2013 given the roster they have right now.

I’ll warn you now, it ain’t pretty.  Here’s the lineup and bench.

Lineup Player Pos PA avg/obp/slg wOBA Outs BR BRAR Def WAR
1 Brett Gardner LF 525 .265/.353/.376 .320 340 65 13 15 2.8
2 Derek Jeter SS 600 .291/.343/.390 .317 394 69 23 -7 1.6
3 Robinson Cano 2B 650 .300/.359/.512 .358 417 100 45 0 4.5
4 Mark Teixeira 1B 600 .253/.344/.472 .338 394 84 20 4 2.4
5 Alex Rodriguez 3B 500 .267/.353/.442 .337 324 67 25 0 2.6
6 Curtis Granderson CF 600 .243/.331/.489 .335 401 85 35 0 3.4
7 Chris Dickerson RF 400 .250/.341/.386 .315 264 48 9 0 0.9
8 Ronnier Mustelier DH 450 .268/.321/.420 .312 305 53 3 0 0.3
9 Francisco Cervelli C 410 .244/.315/.336 .287 281 38 10 -7 0.3
Starters 4735 .267/.341/.431 .327 3119 610 183 5 18.8
Bench Player Pos PA avg/obp/slg wOBA Outs BR BRAR Def WAR
David Adams IF 275 .250/.318/.378 .299 187 29 6 0 0.6
Eduardo Nunez IF 250 .253/.302/.351 .283 174 24 3 0 0.3
Chris Stewart C 200 .230/.300/.328 .275 140 18 4 0 0.4
Jayson Nix IF 150 .224/.287/.384 .281 107 15 3 0 0.3
Melky Mesa OF 125 .215/.276/.370 .272 91 11 0 0 0.0
Austin Romine C 100 .237/.293/.356 .280 71 9 2 0 0.2
Corban Joseph 2B 100 .238/.317/.364 .296 68 10 2 0 0.2
Zoilo Almonte IF 100 .228/.280/.383 .278 72 9 1 0 0.1
Melky Mesa OF 100 .215/.276/.370 .272 72 9 0 0 0.0
Bench 1400 .236/.298/.363 .283 983 134 20 0 2.0
Team Total 6135 .259/.331/.415 .317 4101 744 203 5 20.8

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level (adjusted for position)

I haven’t done defensive projections for 2013 so those are based on 2012 and probably shouldn’t be focused on much. 

And the pitching staff.

Role Player IP H R HR BB K RA ERA FIP WAR
SP1 CC Sabathia 220 206 93 21 56 194 3.82 3.35 3.35 5.2
SP2 Phil Hughes 200 203 107 32 57 157 4.81 4.44 4.46 2.5
SP3 Ivan Nova 175 187 98 23 66 124 4.99 4.62 4.59 1.8
SP4 David Phelps 175 192 90 23 59 125 4.74 4.31 4.40 2.3
SP5 Adam Warren 150 179 88 16 57 92 5.03 4.68 4.46 1.5
SP6 Brett Marshall 50 66 37 7 25 30 6.29 5.64 5.27 -0.2
SP7 Cory Arbiso 25 37 22 4 10 12 7.14 6.25 5.67 -0.3
SP8 Shaeffer Hall 25 35 18 4 8 13 6.25 5.37 5.08 -0.1
SP9 Vidal Nuno 20 27 13 4 6 14 5.84 5.05 4.94 0.0
SP10 Nik Turley 20 27 14 3 11 14 6.19 5.48 5.34 -0.1
Starters 1060 1161 580 137 356 775 4.93 4.41 4.35 12.8
Role Player IP H R HR BB K RA ERA FIP WAR
CL David Robertson 70 56 22 5 29 86 2.90 2.68 2.75 1.9
SU Boone Logan 70 65 31 7 31 72 3.97 3.71 3.72 1.1
SU Joba Chamberlain 60 62 31 8 21 53 4.67 4.12 4.15 0.5
MR Mark Montgomery 50 46 19 3 29 56 3.36 3.25 3.27 1.1
MR David Aardsma 40 35 22 6 21 36 5.02 4.76 4.76 0.2
MR Clay Rapada 40 37 19 3 17 33 4.16 3.75 3.67 0.5
MR Cody Eppley 40 42 21 4 18 31 4.57 4.12 4.07 0.4
MR Cesar Cabral 10 13 6 1 5 7 5.16 4.72 4.23 0.0
LR Chase Whitley 10 11 6 1 4 7 5.36 4.80 4.94 0.0
Relievers 390 366 176 37 175 381 4.07 3.74 3.73 5.6
Total 1450 1526 757 174 531 1156 4.70 4.23 4.18 18.4

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
WAR: Wins above replacement (using RA, adjusted for role)

Yeesh, that rotation is the stuff of nightmares…

CAIRO LOVES Mark Montgomery, but I think it needs to chill a bit on him.  He’s been outstanding so far in the minors, but so have lots of relievers in the past that didn’t turn out all that well.  I’m optimistic on him, but not for early 2013.  It continues to dig David Robertson too, as I think it should.  It’s not particularly fond of most of the rest of the pen, although as Chamberlain and Aardsma get healthier they are probably good bets to beat those projections.

A team that scores 744 runs and allows 757 would project as around a .495 winning percentage or 80 win team.  It’s worse than that because CAIRO was specifically created to make the Yankees look better than they are, which means they’re more like a 40 win team.  I swapped Stewart and Cervelli’s playing time to see if it the defensive difference between made things better but it didn’t really matter.

Obviously it’s still early, they have a lot of moves to make, etc, Getting Hiroki Kuroda re-signed and replacing the SP7-10 innings with Adam Warren probably adds close to five wins.  Getting a right-handed bat whose name doesn’t begin with Andruw and end with Jones to platoon with Chris Dickerson probably helps too.  Better health from Brett Gardner and Alex Rodriguez (yeah, right) would also help I guess.  Bringing back Russell Martin (.232/.327/.385 and 2.1 WAR projection) would add a couple of wins too.

But they’ve got their work cut out for them.

--Posted at 8:13 pm by SG / 35 Comments | - (0)



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