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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Sunday, October 16, 2011

Two More Data Points to Consider Re: Yu Darvish

I promise this will be the last Yu Darvish related post for the next day or two.

Kyle wondered about Colby Lewis and any other American starters that went to Japan and then returned to MLB.  The only other one I could think of was Darrell May.  So here are some of their stats.

Lewis G IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BK RA ERA FIP
2008-2009 55 354 307 124 111 25 46 369 4 3 3.15 2.82 2.42
2010-2011 64 401 361 193 181 56 121 365 13 0 4.33 4.06 4.10
May G IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BK RA ERA FIP
1999-2001 69 430 386 182 177 60 124 450 0 0 3.81 3.70 3.79
2002-2005 120 593 662 362 332 111 181 365 9 0 5.49 5.04 5.32


Lewis pitched for two seasons in Japan for Hiroshima in 2008 and 2009.  He’s had two full seasons back in MLB since then.

For May I’m only showing his last three seasons in Japan and then what he did over the rest of his major league career.

Here are the ratios for the component stats pro-rated to the same innings.

Ratios H R ER HR BB SO
Lewis 1.04 1.37 1.44 1.98 2.32 0.87
May 1.24 1.44 1.36 1.34 1.06 0.59


Lewis hasn’t suffered much in the hit department, but you can see his FIP peripherals took a pretty big hit.  His HR rate has been almost double, his walk rate has been more than double.  He maintained a bit more of his K rate than the starters I looked at in the last post.  Despite all that he’s still been a solidly above average starter for Texas, in a park that boosts offense.  In May’s case we see a bigger spike in hits and a precipitous drop in Ks.

Let’s look at ratios for all the starters that I’ve covered over the last two posts.

Player H R ER HR BB SO
Igawa, Kei 1.29 1.74 1.98 1.95 1.88 0.79
Irabu, Hideki 1.43 1.67 2.00 2.00 0.89 0.70
Ishii, Kazuhisa 1.15 1.39 1.35 1.27 1.47 0.72
Kawakami, Kenshin 1.14 1.52 1.54 1.02 2.06 0.74
Kuroda, Hiroki 1.03 1.22 1.18 1.02 1.26 1.03
Matsuzaka, Daisuke 1.17 1.70 1.85 1.62 2.27 0.88
Nomo, Hideo 1.12 1.17 1.23 2.01 0.72 0.88
Yoshii, Masato 1.24 1.45 1.49 2.12 1.09 0.88
Lewis, Colby 1.04 1.37 1.44 1.98 2.32 0.87
Darrell May 1.24 1.44 1.36 1.34 1.06 0.59
Worst 1.43 1.74 2.00 2.12 2.32 0.59


The last row just shows the worst case for each component stat.  So Hideki Irabu (RIP) saw the biggest increase in hits allowed, etc.,

Let’s run Darvish’s three-year weighted average against each pitcher as well as with each of the ‘worst’ components.

Player IP H R ER HR BB SO RA ERA FIP
Darvish, Yu 214 150 43 38 6 41 240 1.81 1.59 1.88
Darvish->Average 214 178 62 57 9 51 197 2.62 2.42 2.62
Darvish->Igawa, Kei 214 194 75 75 11 78 189 3.15 3.14 3.19
Darvish->Irabu, Hideki 214 214 72 75 11 37 168 3.03 3.18 2.83
Darvish->Ishii, Kazuhisa 214 173 60 51 7 61 172 2.52 2.14 2.88
Darvish->Kawakami, Kenshin 214 172 65 58 6 85 177 2.75 2.44 3.08
Darvish->Kuroda, Hiroki 214 155 52 45 6 52 247 2.21 1.88 1.97
Darvish->Matsuzaka, Daisuke 214 176 73 70 9 93 211 3.08 2.94 3.10
Darvish->Nomo, Hideo 214 169 50 46 11 29 210 2.11 1.95 2.34
Darvish->Yoshii, Masato 214 187 62 56 12 45 211 2.62 2.37 2.59
Darvish->Lewis, Colby 214 156 59 54 11 96 209 2.49 2.28 3.26
Darvish->Darrell May 214 187 62 51 8 44 141 2.61 2.16 2.95
Darvish->Worst 214 254 108 115 19 119 116 4.56 4.84 4.93


It’s entirely possible that Darvish will be exposed against the best competition in the world.  Perhaps he’s uniquely positioned to take advantage of things in the Japanese game that he won’t be able to in MLB.  He’s a risk, particularly given the likely investment in him.

However, I’d temper that by saying that as far as I can tell, no pitcher coming to MLB from Japan has put up the lines that Darvish has put up.  The only pitcher who had a three-year-weighted average FIP within 0.22 of Darvish’s 1.88 was Irabu at 2.20.  The next closest was Matsuzaka at 2.59.  This just confirms to me that we shouldn’t just assume he’ll struggle because most of the pitchers who came over did.  He’s been better than any of them.

Since this is the last Darvish post for the next day or two, I’m going to add this video.

--Posted at 4:57 pm by SG / 20 Comments | - (0)



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