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Tuesday, May 8, 2012

The Postseason Implications of This Week’s Series with Tampa Bay

The Yankees begin a six game homestand tonight with Tampa Bay.  Tampa Bay is tied for first place with Baltimore, but it’s a pretty safe bet that they’re better than Baltimore and are a bigger threat to the Yankees’ chances at winning the division. 

At the beginning of the season, the Yankees projected about three games better than Tampa Bay (94 wins vs. 91 wins) but the Rays now have a 3.5 game lead and the Yankees are a bit weaker with Michael Pineda on the shelf.  Based on what’s happened so far and playing out the rest of the season according to how the teams project going forward gives me a final AL East standings projection that looks something like this.

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rays	91	71	761	682	44.6%	26.0%	12.8%	83.4%	2.1	-4	-1
Yankees	91	71	833	718	42.8%	26.0%	13.2%	82.0%	-3.7	-4	6
Red Sox	84	78	841	769	6.9%	9.2%	16.6%	32.7%	-7.1	12	35
Blue Jays	82	80	773	755	4.9%	8.3%	13.4%	26.6%	1.2	0	-21
Orioles	78	84	719	783	0.9%	2.3%	4.8%	8.0%	8.3	6	-36

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The pitching matchups for this series are as follows.

Tuesday, May 8: The Undefeated James Shields (5-0, 3.05 ERA) vs. Ivan Nova (3-1, 5.58 ERA)
Wednesday, May 9: Jeff Niemann (2-3, 4.05 ERA) vs. David Phelps (0-1, 3.74 ERA)
Thursday, May 10: David Price (5-1, 2.35 ERA) vs. CC Sabathia (4-0, 4.15 ERA)

So here are how the standings and postseason odds change based on the various potential outcomes of this series.

Rays 3-0	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rays	93	69	761	682	61.0%	18.8%	8.3%	88.1%	3.8	-4	-1
Yankees	89	73	833	718	26.2%	28.5%	17.0%	71.7%	-5.3	-4	6
Red Sox	83	79	841	769	5.6%	11.7%	15.4%	32.8%	-7.5	12	35
Blue Jays	83	79	773	755	6.2%	10.2%	15.1%	31.5%	1.5	0	-21
Orioles	78	84	719	783	1.0%	2.8%	5.4%	9.2%	8.3	6	-36

Rays 2-1	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rays	92	70	761	682	51.9%	21.4%	12.5%	85.7%	2.7	-4	-1
Yankees	90	72	833	718	36.4%	26.4%	14.6%	77.4%	-4.3	-4	6
Red Sox	83	79	841	769	5.6%	10.5%	16.7%	32.8%	-7.4	12	35
Blue Jays	83	79	773	755	5.4%	9.6%	12.9%	27.9%	1.4	0	-21
Orioles	78	84	719	783	0.8%	2.0%	6.5%	9.3%	8.0	6	-36

Yankees 2-1	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Yankees	91	71	833	718	44.7%	24.9%	13.9%	83.5%	-3.4	-4	6
Rays	91	71	761	682	40.4%	24.5%	13.2%	78.1%	1.8	-4	-1
Red Sox	83	79	841	769	7.9%	9.9%	16.1%	34.0%	-7.2	12	35
Blue Jays	82	80	773	755	5.5%	8.4%	12.7%	26.5%	1.2	0	-21
Orioles	78	84	719	783	1.5%	3.0%	5.7%	10.2%	8.2	6	-36

Yankees 3-0	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Yankees	92	70	833	718	52.1%	22.1%	11.3%	85.5%	-2.6	-4	6
Rays	90	72	761	682	33.9%	26.6%	15.7%	76.2%	0.8	-4	-1
Red Sox	84	78	841	769	7.7%	11.2%	15.1%	34.0%	-7.1	12	35
Blue Jays	82	80	773	755	5.1%	7.6%	14.5%	27.2%	1.2	0	-21
Orioles	78	84	719	783	1.1%	2.4%	6.4%	10.0%	8.4	6	-36

Sure, it’s early.  And yes, the Yankees play the Rays enough times over the rest of the season to make up any ground they lose in this series, but this is still a pretty important series.  You might even say it’s the most important series of the season so far.