The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 



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Player

 Current Projected
Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King


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Monday, January 14, 2013

The Anniversary

It was one year ago yesterday that the Yankees traded Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos in a stunning move that came out of nowhere.  I didn’t like the move at the time, but by the time spring training came around I had accepted it.  As it turned out, Montero was pretty bad and Noesi was awful, but the Yankees probably still regret making the trade given the fact that Pineda went down with a shoulder injury and his prognosis is uncertain.

It’s tough to judge Montero’s season given the way Safeco suppresses offense and you can’t help but wonder if he’d have hit better in DNYS in a better lineup.  His .260/.298/.386 line was pretty close to league average once you adjust for park (95 OPS+).  What does that mean?  Here’s a list of the players who had at least 500 PA with an OPS+ between 90 and 100 in their age 22 season.

Name OPS+ Year Age Tm Lg G PA H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Adrian Beltre 91 2001 22 LAD NL 126 515 126 22 4 13 28 82 .265 .310 .411 .720
Al Simmons 98 1924 22 PHA AL 152 647 183 31 9 8 30 60 .308 .343 .431 .774
Alex Gonzalez 91 1999 22 FLA NL 136 591 155 28 8 14 15 113 .277 .308 .430 .739
Beals Becker 92 1909 22 BSN NL 152 645 138 15 6 6 47 84 .246 .305 .326 .631
Bill Coughlin 97 1901 22 WSH AL 137 548 139 17 13 6 25 43 .275 .317 .395 .712
Bill Knickerbocker 93 1934 22 CLE AL 146 632 188 32 5 4 25 40 .317 .347 .408 .755
Bob Bailey 95 1965 22 PIT NL 159 702 160 28 3 11 70 93 .256 .330 .363 .692
Bobby Byrne 91 1907 22 STL NL 149 624 143 11 5 0 35 72 .256 .307 .293 .600
Brett Lawrie 97 2012 22 TOR AL 125 536 135 26 3 11 33 86 .273 .324 .405 .729
Bruce Campbell 96 1932 22 TOT AL 146 660 173 36 11 14 40 104 .283 .333 .447 .780
Buck Weaver 93 1913 22 CHW AL 151 573 145 17 8 4 15 60 .272 .302 .356 .659
Carlos Beltran 99 1999 22 KCR AL 156 723 194 27 7 22 46 123 .293 .337 .454 .791
Charlie Spikes 98 1973 22 CLE AL 140 561 120 12 3 23 45 103 .237 .303 .409 .712
Chuck Knoblauch 91 1991 22 MIN AL 151 636 159 24 6 1 59 40 .281 .351 .350 .701
Claudell Washington 99 1977 22 TEX AL 129 554 148 31 2 12 25 112 .284 .318 .420 .739
Cliff Heathcote 100 1920 22 STL NL 133 532 139 18 8 3 25 31 .284 .320 .372 .693
Del Ennis 98 1947 22 PHI NL 139 581 149 25 6 12 37 51 .275 .325 .410 .736
Delino DeShields 94 1991 22 MON NL 151 673 134 15 4 10 95 151 .238 .347 .332 .680
Delmon Young 100 2008 22 MIN AL 152 623 167 28 4 10 35 105 .290 .336 .405 .741
Derrek Lee 96 1998 22 FLA NL 141 513 106 29 1 17 47 120 .233 .318 .414 .732
Dick McAuliffe 99 1962 22 DET AL 139 539 124 20 5 12 64 76 .263 .349 .403 .752
Ellis Burks 99 1987 22 BOS AL 133 606 152 30 2 20 41 98 .272 .324 .441 .765
Elmer Smith 98 1915 22 CLE AL 144 528 118 23 12 3 36 75 .248 .301 .366 .666
Frankie Crosetti 94 1933 22 NYY AL 136 513 114 20 5 9 55 40 .253 .337 .379 .716
Garry Templeton 91 1978 22 STL NL 155 675 181 31 13 2 22 87 .280 .303 .377 .680
George Foster 95 1971 22 TOT NL 140 514 114 23 4 13 29 120 .241 .292 .389 .681
George Kell 93 1945 22 PHA AL 147 602 154 30 3 4 27 15 .272 .306 .356 .662
Howard Freigau 94 1925 22 TOT NL 126 551 150 22 10 8 32 32 .299 .342 .430 .772
Jesus Montero 95 2012 22 SEA AL 135 553 134 20 0 15 29 99 .260 .298 .386 .685
Jim Tabor 96 1939 22 BOS AL 149 626 167 33 8 14 40 54 .289 .337 .447 .784
Jimmy Rollins 93 2001 22 PHI NL 158 720 180 29 12 14 48 108 .274 .323 .419 .743
Johnny Evers 93 1904 22 CHC NL 152 587 141 14 7 0 28 22 .265 .307 .318 .624
Mark Kotsay 94 1998 22 FLA NL 154 623 161 25 7 11 34 61 .279 .318 .403 .721
Rafael Furcal 98 2000 22 ATL NL 131 542 134 20 4 4 73 80 .295 .394 .382 .776
Ray Chapman 91 1913 22 CLE AL 141 601 131 19 7 3 46 51 .258 .322 .341 .662
Reggie Smith 100 1967 22 BOS AL 158 629 139 24 6 15 57 95 .246 .315 .389 .704
Roberto Alomar 98 1990 22 SDP NL 147 646 168 27 5 6 48 72 .287 .340 .381 .721
Roy Howell 92 1976 22 TEX AL 140 531 124 28 2 8 30 106 .253 .295 .367 .661
Ruben Sierra 100 1988 22 TEX AL 156 668 156 32 2 23 44 91 .254 .301 .424 .725
Ruben Tejada 90 2012 22 NYM NL 114 501 134 26 0 1 27 73 .289 .333 .351 .685
Steve Sax 97 1982 22 LAD NL 150 699 180 23 7 4 49 53 .282 .335 .359 .694
Tito Francona 95 1956 22 BAL AL 139 500 115 16 4 9 51 60 .258 .334 .373 .707
Troy Glaus 98 1999 22 ANA AL 154 631 132 29 0 29 71 143 .240 .331 .450 .781

There are some very good players on this list like Adrian Beltre and Carlos Beltran, but honestly it’s kind of underwhelming.

The jury is also still out on his defense, but he didn’t really seem to convince most observers that he’ll be capable of being a full-time catcher at the MLB level.  Still, he’ll be 23 in 2013 and it’s not hard to imagine him hitting much better with a year of adjustment and additional experience. 

Of course, given the fact that Pineda may never be an MLB pitcher again it’s kind of hard to spin this trade in the Yankees’ favor.  The simple question I’d ask is this, if the Yankees could make this trade again today given what they know now would they?  I think the obvious answer is no.

Pineda could come back healthy and Montero may not be able to catch or improve enough offensively that the Yankees could still end up coming out ahead in this trade.  I don’t like the odds of all that coming to pass, but it’s possible.  But I suppose we’ll have a bit more data to judge on after 2013.

--Posted at 9:10 am by SG / 36 Comments | - (0)


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