The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Yankees (69-62) @ Tigers (71-60),  Thursday, August 28, 2014, 1:08pm
(85 Comments - 8/28/2014 7:14:22 pm)

NYDN: Yankees sign Mets reject Chris Young to minor-league deal
(10 Comments - 8/28/2014 1:11:26 pm)

Yankees.com: Detroit sock city: Yanks hammer Price, gain in WC race
(9 Comments - 8/28/2014 1:03:08 am)

Yankees (68-62) @ Tigers (71-59), Wednesday, August 27, 2014, 7:08pm
(85 Comments - 8/27/2014 11:10:42 pm)

NYDN: Yankees GM Cashman reveals how the last-minute deal for Martin Prado went down
(17 Comments - 8/27/2014 7:12:33 pm)

Yankees.com: McCarthy battles, but Yankees’ win streak snapped
(6 Comments - 8/27/2014 10:36:39 am)

Yankees (68-61) @ Tigers (70-59), Tuesday, August 26, 2014, 7:08pm
(71 Comments - 8/26/2014 11:27:45 pm)

Yankees.com: Yanks’ streak to five after makeup-game win in KC
(12 Comments - 8/26/2014 8:20:57 pm)

A Tale of Two Offenses
(22 Comments - 8/26/2014 5:16:34 pm)

Yankees (67-61) @ Royals (72-57), Monday, August 25, 2014, 7:10pm
(77 Comments - 8/25/2014 10:37:04 pm)



Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Wednesday, March 27, 2013

The 2013 MLB Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition

The Marcel projections were developed by Tangotiger as a baseline for reasonable player forecasting.  The 2013 projections are available here.

Although it’s considered the most basic projection system, it is generally as good as any other system since added complexity really hasn’t been shown to add all that much accuracy over Marcel, and the principles behind it are solid and should be the basis for any good forecasting system.  Marcel tends to regress more heavily towards the mean, so the standings here will be more compressed in the other systems.  Marcel does not factor in minor league performance or performances in other leagues, and does not adjust for park.  Any player who has not played in MLB will project as average.  Here’s how it sees things looking in 2013.

TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Rays 88 74 707 645 30.2% 9.2% 9.0% 48.4% 78-100
Blue Jays 86 76 775 725 21.9% 8.3% 8.3% 38.5% 77-99
Yankees 83 79 760 742 17.2% 7.3% 7.6% 32.0% 73-96
Red Sox 82 80 831 805 17.0% 7.4% 7.2% 31.6% 70-93
Orioles 81 81 740 741 13.6% 6.1% 7.0% 26.7% 68-91
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Tigers 89 73 796 711 47.6% 7.6% 6.9% 62.1% 79-102
Royals 82 80 711 714 19.4% 6.4% 6.9% 32.7% 69-92
Indians 80 82 739 747 16.6% 5.4% 6.1% 28.2% 68-91
White Sox 77 85 704 739 11.3% 4.1% 4.8% 20.2% 65-87
Twins 71 91 705 797 4.8% 1.9% 2.7% 9.5% 54-77
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Angels 91 71 775 682 41.2% 11.0% 8.5% 60.8% 82-104
Rangers 87 75 779 723 27.0% 10.4% 9.2% 46.6% 78-100
Athletics 85 77 734 706 22.1% 9.5% 8.8% 40.4% 73-95
Mariners 76 86 657 703 8.2% 4.5% 5.4% 18.0% 59-82
Astros 66 96 642 792 1.4% 0.7% 1.4% 3.5% 47-70
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Braves 89 73 662 604 39.3% 9.3% 8.4% 57.0% 81-104
Nationals 86 76 667 627 31.4% 9.4% 8.2% 49.0% 76-99
Phillies 77 85 664 701 11.3% 5.6% 5.6% 22.5% 70-92
Marlins 76 86 651 704 9.6% 4.7% 5.4% 19.8% 61-84
Mets 74 88 622 669 8.1% 3.8% 4.8% 16.8% 56-79
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Reds 86 76 734 687 31.9% 10.1% 8.3% 50.3% 79-102
Cardinals 86 76 696 656 30.0% 10.0% 8.4% 48.4% 73-95
Brewers 82 80 712 696 22.2% 8.6% 7.8% 38.6% 69-92
Pirates 75 87 658 710 9.2% 3.4% 4.9% 17.4% 67-89
Cubs 73 89 647 718 6.5% 3.2% 3.7% 13.4% 61-84
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Diamondbacks 84 78 731 709 28.8% 8.1% 8.1% 45.0% 77-100
Giants 84 78 653 628 26.2% 7.8% 7.8% 41.8% 77-99
Dodgers 84 78 659 636 24.6% 7.8% 8.2% 40.6% 73-96
Rockies 76 86 756 802 11.1% 4.7% 5.7% 21.5% 68-91
Padres 74 88 624 674 9.0% 3.3% 4.4% 16.7% 61-83

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation






--Posted at 6:55 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)



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