The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Yankees (69-63) @ Blue Jays (67-66), Friday, August 29, 2014, 7:07pm
(16 Comments - 8/29/2014 8:24:12 pm)

NY Times: In Season of 63 Losses So Far, Yankees Find Few as Agonizing as This One
(29 Comments - 8/29/2014 5:37:03 pm)

Yankees (69-62) @ Tigers (71-60),  Thursday, August 28, 2014, 1:08pm
(93 Comments - 8/29/2014 7:31:32 am)

NYDN: Yankees sign Mets reject Chris Young to minor-league deal
(10 Comments - 8/28/2014 1:11:26 pm)

Yankees.com: Detroit sock city: Yanks hammer Price, gain in WC race
(9 Comments - 8/28/2014 1:03:08 am)

Yankees (68-62) @ Tigers (71-59), Wednesday, August 27, 2014, 7:08pm
(85 Comments - 8/27/2014 11:10:42 pm)

NYDN: Yankees GM Cashman reveals how the last-minute deal for Martin Prado went down
(17 Comments - 8/27/2014 7:12:33 pm)

Yankees.com: McCarthy battles, but Yankees’ win streak snapped
(6 Comments - 8/27/2014 10:36:39 am)

Yankees (68-61) @ Tigers (70-59), Tuesday, August 26, 2014, 7:08pm
(71 Comments - 8/26/2014 11:27:45 pm)

Yankees.com: Yanks’ streak to five after makeup-game win in KC
(12 Comments - 8/26/2014 8:20:57 pm)



Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Wednesday, March 27, 2013

The 2013 MLB Projection Blowout - CAIRO Edition

CAIRO is my own projection system, built on the basics of Marcel but with a few major differences.
1) I use four years of data instead of three with different weights.
2) I adjust for park.
3) My regression towards the mean incorporates multiple factors(including age and position) and regresses components differently.
4) I include minor league data translated to major league equivalencies.

The latest spreadsheet for CAIRO can be found here and here is how it projects the 2013 season.

TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Blue Jays 91 71 803 719 34.3% 11.1% 9.2% 54.6% 79-102
Rays 88 74 714 641 26.3% 10.3% 9.4% 46.0% 77-99
Yankees 85 77 781 749 17.8% 8.6% 8.9% 35.3% 74-96
Red Sox 82 80 809 797 12.7% 6.8% 7.9% 27.5% 70-92
Orioles 79 83 734 760 8.8% 4.7% 6.1% 19.6% 68-91
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Tigers 88 74 794 717 43.7% 6.6% 6.8% 57.2% 76-99
Indians 81 81 743 735 21.1% 5.3% 6.1% 32.5% 69-92
Royals 80 82 719 731 18.9% 4.7% 5.7% 29.2% 68-91
White Sox 76 86 725 779 13.1% 3.4% 4.9% 21.5% 65-88
Twins 67 95 697 832 3.3% 0.9% 1.5% 5.7% 55-78
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Angels 91 71 762 652 41.3% 12.1% 9.6% 63.0% 80-103
Rangers 88 74 797 739 29.8% 11.8% 10.1% 51.8% 76-99
Athletics 85 77 734 694 23.8% 10.7% 9.5% 44.0% 74-97
Mariners 72 90 666 729 4.6% 2.6% 3.7% 10.9% 61-83
Astros 59 103 651 886 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 1.5% 48-71
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Nationals 93 69 702 587 48.7% 11.6% 8.0% 68.3% 81-104
Braves 88 74 681 627 30.1% 12.9% 9.4% 52.3% 77-100
Phillies 81 81 665 674 14.3% 8.0% 8.4% 30.7% 70-92
Mets 73 89 663 716 5.4% 3.1% 4.0% 12.5% 62-84
Marlins 66 96 623 755 1.6% 0.9% 1.6% 4.1% 54-77
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Reds 91 71 743 652 45.1% 8.2% 7.5% 60.8% 79-102
Cardinals 85 77 684 657 24.6% 8.1% 8.3% 41.0% 73-96
Pirates 78 84 670 692 11.5% 4.6% 5.7% 21.8% 67-89
Brewers 78 84 707 745 11.3% 4.7% 6.0% 22.0% 66-89
Cubs 74 88 650 694 7.5% 3.3% 4.1% 14.9% 63-86
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Dodgers 89 73 687 615 32.4% 9.6% 9.1% 51.1% 77-100
Giants 88 74 671 607 29.4% 9.5% 9.4% 48.2% 77-100
Diamondbacks 85 77 711 685 23.8% 8.5% 9.0% 41.3% 74-97
Padres 77 85 657 685 9.6% 4.3% 5.7% 19.6% 66-89
Rockies 72 90 776 867 5.0% 2.7% 3.7% 11.4% 61-84

W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation






--Posted at 6:57 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)



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