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CBS Sports: Yankees acquire Chris Capuano from Rockies for cash
(1 Comment - 7/24/2014 11:50:32 pm)

Yankees.com: Victorious McCarthy continues to stabilize Yanks
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Rangers (40-61) @ Yankees (52-48), Thursday, July 24, 2014, 1:05pm
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Yankees.com: Phelps, Yanks take rain-shortened win over Rangers
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Rangers (40-60) @ Yankees (51-48), Wednesday, July 23, 2014, 7:05pm
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Dan Szymborski: Headley RoS ZiPS in Yankee Stadium
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Yankees.com: Newcomer Headley Yanks’ walk-off hero in 14th
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Rangers (40-59) @ Yankees (50-48), Tuesday, July 22, 2014, 7:05pm
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MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees Acquire Chase Headley
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NYDN: Yankees commit five errors in 4-2 loss to Texas Rangers
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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Tuesday, April 3, 2012

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition

Marcel was developed by Tangotiger of The Book fame.

Although it’s considered the most basic projection system, it is generally as good as any other system since added complexity really hasn’t shown to add all that much accuracy over Marcel, and the principles behind it are solid and should be the basis for any good forecasting system.  Marcel tends to regress more heavily towards the mean, so the standings here will be more compressed in the other systems.  Marcel does not factor in minor league performance or performances in other leagues, and does not adjust for park.  Any player who has not played in MLB will project as average.  In Marcel, Tsuyoshi Wada and Yu Darvish have the same projection for example, so keep that in mind as you peruse the standings. 

Here’s how it sees things looking in 2012.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL East NYA 92 70 800 695 46.3% 21.2% 9.2% 76.7% 82 - 102
AL East BOS 89 73 801 727 26.7% 23.2% 11.1% 61.1% 79 - 99
AL East TAM 88 74 754 681 20.6% 20.9% 12.3% 53.8% 78 - 98
AL East TOR 84 78 753 733 6.5% 11.6% 8.3% 26.3% 74 - 94
AL East BAL 68 94 682 802 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 58 - 78
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL Central DET 84 78 756 723 41.0% 1.5% 9.9% 52.4% 74 - 94
AL Central CLE 83 79 755 738 33.7% 2.0% 8.4% 44.1% 73 - 93
AL Central CHA 79 83 697 714 13.1% 2.0% 5.1% 20.2% 69 - 89
AL Central KC 78 84 708 735 11.0% 1.2% 3.6% 15.7% 68 - 88
AL Central MIN 70 92 711 818 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 1.8% 60 - 80
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL West LAA 87 75 725 671 44.6% 5.7% 13.0% 63.3% 77 - 97
AL West TEX 87 75 762 703 40.3% 7.1% 11.3% 58.6% 77 - 97
AL West OAK 80 82 710 715 10.9% 2.2% 5.4% 18.5% 70 - 90
AL West SEA 77 85 680 721 4.2% 1.0% 2.6% 7.8% 67 - 87
AL WC1 91
AL WC2 88
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL East PHI 90 72 729 651 47.0% 13.3% 9.9% 70.1% 80 - 100
NL East ATL 88 74 729 668 32.2% 17.5% 11.1% 60.8% 78 - 98
NL East WAS 85 77 710 681 15.6% 14.0% 8.9% 38.5% 75 - 95
NL East MIA 80 82 715 727 4.8% 4.9% 7.1% 16.8% 70 - 90
NL East NYN 74 88 698 759 0.6% 0.9% 1.6% 3.1% 64 - 84
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL Central CIN 89 73 734 664 54.2% 8.5% 9.8% 72.5% 79 - 99
NL Central STL 85 77 749 718 25.9% 9.2% 10.5% 45.6% 75 - 95
NL Central MIL 83 79 714 693 19.1% 9.5% 7.7% 36.3% 73 - 93
NL Central PIT 72 90 687 772 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% 62 - 82
NL Central CHN 71 91 675 773 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 61 - 81
NL Central HOU 66 96 638 771 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 56 - 76
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL West COL 86 76 746 696 40.9% 6.6% 11.1% 58.6% 76 - 96
NL West ARI 84 78 704 682 26.1% 6.4% 9.3% 41.8% 74 - 94
NL West SF 84 78 688 670 27.5% 6.5% 8.9% 42.9% 74 - 94
NL West LAN 76 86 669 714 3.8% 1.4% 2.0% 7.2% 66 - 86
NL West SD 74 88 679 737 1.7% 0.7% 1.4% 3.8% 64 - 84
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 87

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 8:15 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)



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