Monday, January 7, 2013
Swapping Russ Canzler for Chris Dickerson
When I saw that the Yankees had picked up Russ Canzler off waivers I was intrigued. However, when it turned out to come at the likely loss of Chris Dickerson I was a bit less happy about it. But let’s take a look at what CAIRO thinks about the swap.
Here are Canzler’s CAIRO percentile forecasts.
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| 80% | 480 | 435 | 60 | 119 | 32 | 3 | 20 | 67 | 5 | 2 | 49 | 111 | 6 | 6 | .274 | .362 | .500 | .376 | 75 | 20 |
| 65% | 440 | 398 | 52 | 104 | 27 | 2 | 16 | 57 | 4 | 2 | 42 | 107 | 7 | 4 | .261 | .340 | .462 | .351 | 60 | 10 |
| Baseline | 400 | 362 | 44 | 90 | 22 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 102 | 8 | 3 | .248 | .319 | .425 | .326 | 47 | 1 |
| 35% | 360 | 326 | 36 | 76 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 97 | 8 | 2 | .235 | .298 | .387 | .300 | 36 | -6 |
| 20% | 320 | 290 | 30 | 64 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 90 | 8 | 1 | .221 | .276 | .349 | .275 | 26 | -11 |
And here are Dickerson’s.
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| 80% | 480 | 417 | 76 | 118 | 28 | 4 | 14 | 47 | 27 | 3 | 65 | 112 | 5 | 6 | .283 | .393 | .473 | .384 | 80 | 24 |
| 65% | 440 | 382 | 66 | 103 | 23 | 3 | 11 | 40 | 23 | 4 | 56 | 108 | 6 | 5 | .269 | .370 | .436 | .359 | 64 | 14 |
| Baseline | 400 | 347 | 56 | 89 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 19 | 4 | 47 | 103 | 7 | 3 | .256 | .348 | .399 | .333 | 51 | 5 |
| 35% | 360 | 313 | 47 | 76 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 39 | 98 | 8 | 2 | .242 | .325 | .362 | .308 | 39 | -3 |
| 20% | 320 | 278 | 39 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 11 | 5 | 32 | 91 | 8 | 1 | .229 | .302 | .325 | .283 | 28 | -9 |
In a vacuum over 400 PA, Canzler doesn’t project as well as Dickerson. Of course, with an all left-handed starting OF, the more important consideration is their respective projected platoon splits.
| Canzler | Dickerson | |||
| % | wOBA vs L | wOBA vs R | wOBA vs L | wOBA vs R |
| 80% | .392 | .370 | .355 | .390 |
| 65% | .366 | .345 | .331 | .364 |
| Baseline | .339 | .320 | .308 | .338 |
| 35% | .313 | .295 | .284 | .312 |
| 20% | .286 | .270 | .261 | .287 |
In terms of runs, over 250 PA Canzler’s projected wOBA of .339 vs. LHP would be worth about 7 runs more than Dickerson’s projected wOBA of .308. Dickerson’s almost certainly the better defender and baserunner and could play CF, but the Yankees already have three outfielders that can play CF. The fact that Canzler can play the OF corners as well as 3B and 1B behind Kevin Youkilis whose health is a pretty significant concern in and of itself probably makes Canzler a more valuable piece of the roster.
Obviously we’re dealing with projectons and the inherent limitations therein, so there are huge error bars around all of this. So keep that in mind.
I’d like to see Dickerson get a chance somewhere (seems like a no-brainer for Houston) and think he’ll do pretty well if he gets that chance, but it seems to me that this was a pretty good move on its face.
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