The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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NY Post: Hal Steinbrenner reveals a very un-Boss-like agenda for Yankees
(4 Comments - 10/2/2014 10:17:22 am)

Giants (88-74) @ Pirates (88-74), Wednesday, October 31, 2014, 8:00pm
(17 Comments - 10/2/2014 8:43:50 am)

NYDN: As Yankees head into offseason, here are five must-make moves to get them back to playoffs
(54 Comments - 10/1/2014 11:11:50 pm)

Athletics (88-74) @ Royals (89-73), Tuesday, September 30, 2014, 8:07 pm
(55 Comments - 10/1/2014 9:00:09 am)

TGS NY: Yankees prep Brian Cashman deal
(17 Comments - 9/30/2014 6:57:46 pm)

NYDN: Brandon McCarthy enjoyed pitching for Yankees, appears willing to return to Bombers
(33 Comments - 9/30/2014 2:45:26 pm)

NY Times: As Jeter Ends Farewell Tour, Yanks Plan a Welcome Party
(30 Comments - 9/30/2014 12:50:06 am)

Yankees.com: Jeter fittingly goes out a winner in final game
(7 Comments - 9/29/2014 11:26:00 am)

Yankees (83-78) @ Red Sox (71-90), Sunday, September 28, 2014, 1:35pm
(41 Comments - 9/28/2014 6:39:02 pm)

Yankees (82-77) @ Red Sox (70-89), Friday, September 26, 2014, 7:10pm
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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Monday, January 7, 2013

Swapping Russ Canzler for Chris Dickerson

When I saw that the Yankees had picked up Russ Canzler off waivers I was intrigued.  However, when it turned out to come at the likely loss of Chris Dickerson I was a bit less happy about it.  But let’s take a look at what CAIRO thinks about the swap.

Here are Canzler’s CAIRO percentile forecasts.

% PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BRAR
80% 480 435 60 119 32 3 20 67 5 2 49 111 6 6 .274 .362 .500 .376 75 20
65% 440 398 52 104 27 2 16 57 4 2 42 107 7 4 .261 .340 .462 .351 60 10
Baseline 400 362 44 90 22 1 13 49 3 3 35 102 8 3 .248 .319 .425 .326 47 1
35% 360 326 36 76 18 1 10 41 2 4 29 97 8 2 .235 .298 .387 .300 36 -6
20% 320 290 30 64 14 0 8 33 1 4 23 90 8 1 .221 .276 .349 .275 26 -11

And here are Dickerson’s.

% PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BRAR
80% 480 417 76 118 28 4 14 47 27 3 65 112 5 6 .283 .393 .473 .384 80 24
65% 440 382 66 103 23 3 11 40 23 4 56 108 6 5 .269 .370 .436 .359 64 14
Baseline 400 347 56 89 19 2 9 33 19 4 47 103 7 3 .256 .348 .399 .333 51 5
35% 360 313 47 76 15 1 7 28 15 5 39 98 8 2 .242 .325 .362 .308 39 -3
20% 320 278 39 63 12 1 5 22 11 5 32 91 8 1 .229 .302 .325 .283 28 -9

In a vacuum over 400 PA, Canzler doesn’t project as well as Dickerson.  Of course, with an all left-handed starting OF, the more important consideration is their respective projected platoon splits.

Canzler Dickerson
% wOBA vs L wOBA vs R wOBA vs L wOBA vs R
80% .392 .370 .355 .390
65% .366 .345 .331 .364
Baseline .339 .320 .308 .338
35% .313 .295 .284 .312
20% .286 .270 .261 .287

In terms of runs, over 250 PA Canzler’s projected wOBA of .339 vs. LHP would be worth about 7 runs more than Dickerson’s projected wOBA of .308.  Dickerson’s almost certainly the better defender and baserunner and could play CF, but the Yankees already have three outfielders that can play CF.  The fact that Canzler can play the OF corners as well as 3B and 1B behind Kevin Youkilis whose health is a pretty significant concern in and of itself probably makes Canzler a more valuable piece of the roster.

Obviously we’re dealing with projectons and the inherent limitations therein, so there are huge error bars around all of this. So keep that in mind.

I’d like to see Dickerson get a chance somewhere (seems like a no-brainer for Houston) and think he’ll do pretty well if he gets that chance, but it seems to me that this was a pretty good move on its face.

--Posted at 9:05 am by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)



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