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Sunday, November 20, 2011

Sporting News: Braves interested in Yankees’ Nunez

“They need offense, they need a shortstop because they don’t want to bring (Alex) Gonzalez back, and they like Nunez a lot. They know the jury is out on him defensively, but they think his offense is strong enough that he could move to the outfield if he can’t be their long-term answer at short.”

The Daily News quotes a Yankees source saying the Braves reached out to the Bombers to express interest in Nunez, though they didn’t specifically bring up the idea of trading Jurrjens.

I’m pretty sure the jury has already rendered their verdict in the case of Eduardo Nunez’s crimes against balls hit into his vicinity.

I am not sure how good Jurrjens is right now.  If I run him through CAIRO as a Yankee I get this range of projections.

%	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	27	27	167	140	59	54	11	46	1	127	3.17	2.93	3.18	37	3.7
65%	22	22	139	123	53	49	11	42	2	100	3.44	3.20	3.55	27	2.7
Baseline	18	18	111	103	46	43	10	37	3	76	3.72	3.46	3.92	18	1.8
35%	14	14	89	87	39	37	10	32	3	57	3.99	3.73	4.29	12	1.2
20%	11	11	67	68	32	30	8	26	2	40	4.27	3.99	4.66	7	0.7

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs saved above replacement level using RA
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)

What CAIRO doesn’t know is that Jurrjens lost about 2 mph on his fastball last year.  In addition to that, his peripherals were not nearly as good as his shiny 2.96 ERA in 2011 (FIP of 3.99, xFIP of 4.23).  In Jurrjens’s career he’s showed a similar divergence although not quite as extreme (ERA of 3.40, FIP of 3.88, xFIP of 4.22).  Jurrjens will be 26 in 2012, and I believe he would be under team control for the next two seasons.

Despite his defensive issues, I like Nunez.  Although he doesn’t project all that well in CAIRO (.262/.319/.392), he adds some value on the bases.  I also think it’s interesting that he has demonstrated better command of the strike zone in MLB than he had in his minor league career.

Minor Leagues: 5.6% BB/PA, 12.6% K/PA
Major Leagues: 6.4% BB/PA, 10.0% K/PA

Since BB and K rates tend to stabilize more quickly than most other stats, there may be some evidence of development there.  I’d expect the Yankees primary backup infielder to play quite a bit given the age and injury risk on the left side of the infield. I think I’d rather see those PA going to Nunez than to Ramiro Pena, even if it means more fielding hijinks. 

Still, Jurrjens for Nunez straight up seems like a trade the Yankees should make, but it also seems like a trade the Braves wouldn’t make.