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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Some Mo Pitch FX stuff

I just wanted to do a quick comparison with some of Mariano Rivera’s Pitch FX data from last year and this year, so here it is.

First, here’s the 2010 data.

% FF FFv FC FCv
4 8.8% 91.8 91.2% 90.6
5 11.6% 91.5 88.4% 90.9
6 18.3% 92.1 81.7% 91.4
7 22.8% 92.5 77.2% 91.3
8 17.9% 92.5 82.1% 91.1
9 16.5% 91.6 83.5% 91.0
10 1.8% 93.1 98.2% 91.5
All 14.6% 92.1 85.4% 91.1


FF: 4 seam fastball
FC: Cutter

Really basic here, just the percentage of time he threw his cutter and four-seamer by month, with the average velocities as well.

Month Ball Str_C Str_S Foul In play
4 32.6% 20.3% 9.4% 23.9% 13.8%
5 37.2% 18.2% 5.0% 20.7% 19.0%
6 34.0% 19.8% 10.8% 22.6% 12.7%
7 31.4% 15.3% 10.2% 23.4% 19.7%
8 37.8% 9.4% 6.3% 21.3% 25.2%
9 32.0% 13.8% 8.3% 24.3% 21.5%
10 32.1% 19.6% 3.6% 25.0% 19.6%
All 33.8% 16.7% 8.1% 23.1% 18.4%

 

Ball: Pitches that missed the strike zone, includes HBP, pitchouts
Str_C: Called strikes
Str_S: Swinging strikes, includes missed bunts
Foul: All fouls including outs
In play: All balls hit into play, including HRs

I’m just trying to keep this simple, so I’m not separating out hits from outs or whatever.  I’m more interested in what Rivera’s pitches are doing as they get to home plate and what the batters are doing to them.  What I find interesting here is the marked drop in August.  Despite no obvious drop in velocity, he pretty clearly wasn’t quite as effective.  He threw more balls, got fewer called and swinging strikes, and batters hit a lot more balls into play. He pitched nine innings in August 2010 and only allowed two runs, but he walked three and struck out just two, so that kind of jibes with a decreased effectiveness at the pitch level, even if it didn’t manifest itself in runs.

The good news is that Rivera seemed to rebound a bit in September and was fine in October, which is the most important thing.

So what about 2011?  Are we just seeing another August dip?  We won’t know for a while, but here are the numbers.

% FF FFv FC FCv
3 100.0% 90.1
4 9.1% 91.0 90.9% 90.5
5 14.6% 91.5 85.4% 90.9
6 10.9% 92.3 89.1% 91.6
7 15.7% 93.0 84.3% 91.8
8 23.5% 93.2 76.5% 92.3
All 12.9% 92.2 87.1% 91.2

Month Ball Str_C Str_S Foul In play
3 15.8% 10.5% 21.1% 21.1% 31.6%
4 27.3% 16.0% 7.5% 31.0% 18.2%
5 33.1% 19.7% 6.3% 20.5% 20.5%
6 25.6% 17.8% 10.1% 27.1% 19.4%
7 25.9% 18.5% 11.9% 24.4% 19.3%
8 27.5% 15.7% 7.8% 23.5% 25.5%
All 27.5% 17.4% 9.1% 25.9% 20.1%


We obviously don’t have enough data to make any meaningful observations about Rivera’s 2011 August.  I do have to admit that as a fan this year, ignoring whatever the numbers tell me, Mo hasn’t been quite as dominant as he’s been over the last few seasons.  If that means he’s now just a very good closer instead of the greatest of all time, there are worse things that could happen.  He is 41, and it is going to happen at some point.  I’d imagine that we’ll see Mo being used a bit more sparingly if he continues to look human.

Or it could just be yet another chapter of WWWMW™, one that we’ll look back on at the end of the year and laugh at.  Again.

--Posted at 12:20 pm by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)



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