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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Friday, November 19, 2010

Projecting Derek Jeter and Eduardo Nunez Again

It’s important to understand that a projection is not necessarily a prediction for what a player will do in the upcoming season.  It’s more of an estimate of their true talent, adjusted for things like age and park, and should essentially be a baseline for reasonable expectations.  Because of this, it’s good to understand the uncertainty implicit in any projection, no matter how deadly accurate it claims to be.

This dovetails into what sd2528 asked in the previous post about how Derek Jeter and Eduardo Nunez’s projections past 2011 would look if they performed better or worse than their baseline projections. 

For CAIRO, I set a range of projections within one standard deviation of the baseline projection very simply.  I just take the standard deviation of each component stat and then set that as the upper and lower bound of the projections, with a simple playing time adjustment added in.  A player who exceeds their baseline should play more and a player who is worse than their baseline should play less.  You can do this with any projection system that doesn’t provide explicit ranges if you’re interested in seeing what they may say.

So for Jeter, here’s his range of CAIRO projections for 2011.

Player Jeter, Derek
% PA H 2B 3B HR SB BB SO avg obp slg wOBA BR BRAR Def WAR
80% 706 196 35 4 17 19 71 88 .311 .394 .459 .379 104 51 -2 4.9
65% 702 188 32 3 15 17 67 87 .300 .376 .433 .360 95 43 -5 3.8
Baseline 699 181 29 2 13 15 63 96 .290 .359 .407 .342 85 32 -7 2.5
35% 664 165 25 2 11 13 56 81 .279 .342 .380 .323 74 24 -10 1.4
20% 629 151 21 1 9 10 49 76 .268 .325 .354 .304 62 15 -12 0.3

BRAR: Linear weights batting runs above replacement level (park and position-adjusted)
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
Def: Projected runs saved defensively compared to average
WAR: Wins above replacement level (BRAR plus Def divided by 10)

And for Nunez, here are his.

Player Nunez, Eduardo
% PA H 2B 3B HR SB BB SO avg obp slg wOBA BR BRAR Def WAR
80% 533 139 26 3 10 23 32 62 .279 .330 .403 .324 62 22 1 2.3
65% 530 133 24 2 8 21 29 61 .268 .313 .376 .305 55 15 0 1.5
Baseline 528 127 22 2 7 19 27 68 .256 .295 .349 .286 47 7 -1 0.6
35% 501 115 18 1 5 16 23 56 .245 .278 .322 .267 39 1 -1 0.0
20% 475 104 15 0 4 13 19 53 .234 .261 .296 .247 31 -5 -2 -0.7


Now obviously there are pretty big differences in those projections, and there would be a pretty significant impact to a player’s going forward projection depending on which of those they hit.  I’ll show what happens if Jeter and Nunez hit their 80% (very optimistic) and 20% (very pessimistic) percentile projections.

Player Jeter, Derek % 80%
Year Age PA H 2B 3B HR SB BB SO avg obp slg wOBA BR BRAR Def WAR
2011 37 706 196 35 4 17 19 71 88 .311 .394 .459 .379 100 47 -2 4.5
2012 38 679 177 29 3 12 18 59 93 .291 .359 .407 .341 83 32 -9 2.3
2013 39 640 165 25 3 10 14 55 95 .289 .356 .395 .336 75 27 -10 1.7
2014 40 626 160 24 3 9 13 53 95 .287 .353 .389 .332 72 25 -12 1.3
2015 41 569 141 20 2 7 10 46 96 .277 .338 .365 .315 59 16 -14 0.2
Total 3220 838 132 15 55 75 285 467 .292 .360 .406 .341 389 148 -49 9.9

Player Jeter, Derek % 20%
Year Age PA H 2B 3B HR SB BB SO avg obp slg wOBA BR BRAR Def WAR
2011 37 629 151 21 1 9 10 49 76 .268 .325 .354 .304 59 12 -12 0.1
2012 38 653 161 24 2 9 15 52 89 .277 .336 .373 .316 70 21 -9 1.2
2013 39 616 151 21 2 8 12 49 91 .275 .334 .364 .312 63 17 -10 0.7
2014 40 602 147 20 2 7 11 47 91 .273 .331 .359 .309 60 15 -12 0.3
2015 41 548 129 17 1 5 8 40 92 .264 .317 .338 .294 49 8 -14 -0.6
Total 3048 739 104 8 39 56 238 440 .265 .330 .350 .308 302 73 -58 1.5

Same thing for Nunez.

Player Nunez, Eduardo % 80%
Year Age PA H 2B 3B HR SB BB SO avg obp slg wOBA BR BRAR Def WAR
2011 24 533 139 26 3 10 23 32 62 .279 .330 .403 .324 60 20 1 2.1
2012 25 524 129 24 2 8 18 29 66 .263 .308 .367 .300 51 12 -1 1.1
2013 26 529 130 23 2 8 18 30 68 .262 .309 .369 .301 52 12 -1 1.1
2014 27 529 129 23 2 8 18 31 68 .261 .310 .367 .301 52 12 -1 1.1
2015 28 529 125 24 2 8 17 31 68 .253 .303 .357 .294 49 10 -1 0.8
Total 2644 652 121 11 42 93 153 332 .264 .311 .373 .304 264 65 -3 6.2

Player Nunez, Eduardo % 20%
Year Age PA H 2B 3B HR SB BB SO avg obp slg wOBA BR BRAR Def WAR
2011 24 475 104 15 0 4 13 19 53 .234 .261 .296 .247 30 -6 -2 -0.8
2012 25 504 117 20 1 5 14 24 63 .248 .284 .330 .273 40 2 -1 0.2
2013 26 509 118 19 1 6 15 26 65 .247 .286 .333 .275 41 3 -1 0.2
2014 27 509 117 19 1 6 14 26 65 .247 .286 .332 .275 41 3 -1 0.2
2015 28 509 113 20 1 6 14 27 65 .239 .280 .322 .269 39 1 -1 -0.1
Total 2506 568 94 5 28 70 121 312 .238 .281 .316 .269 191 3 -6 -0.3


I’m sure seeing this leads to the question of why the 2012+ projections aren’t more inline with the 2011 performance either good or bad.  It’s because we still have to factor in the information we had prior to 2011 as part of a player’s going forward projection.  The most recent season should have more weight than any prior season, but it shouldn’t have more weight than all of the prior seasons.  For CAIRO, the most recent season is weighed around 38%.

Which is all just a fancy way of showing how little we really know about how Jeter (and Nunez)‘s next few seasons will end up looking.

--Posted at 2:59 pm by SG / 29 Comments | - (0)



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