The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

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NY Times: Didi Gregorius of Yankees Is Expected to Miss First Month of the Season
(34 Comments - 3/23/2017 6:41:01 am)

NY Times: Yankees Capitalize on 2nd Chance With Young Star Who Got Away
(56 Comments - 3/22/2017 6:36:44 am)

TGS NY: Jobs in jeopardy as Baby Bombers challenge Yankees veterans
(89 Comments - 3/19/2017 10:09:17 pm)

TGS: CC Sabathia after rough outing: ‘The body feels good’
(31 Comments - 3/16/2017 1:01:40 pm)

NY Post: How Gary Sanchez’s amazing feats are raising his ceiling even higher
(88 Comments - 3/13/2017 8:46:10 am)

NY Post: How long can overshadowed Yankees prospect stay a secret?
(34 Comments - 3/9/2017 9:10:09 am)

CBS Sports: MLB trade rumors: Yankees reportedly shopping utility man Rob Refsnyder
(20 Comments - 3/8/2017 8:46:23 am)

NY Post: Luis Severino hit 99 in outing, but that’s not why Girardi is pleased
(41 Comments - 3/7/2017 2:59:25 am)

NY Post: Yankees’ Greg Bird provides powerful reminder of his upside
(69 Comments - 3/3/2017 10:00:02 pm) Can Yankees’ Aaron Judge, Matt Holliday ‘kick’ it? Yes, they can
(22 Comments - 3/1/2017 7:37:30 am)


Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.

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Thursday, January 5, 2017

NYDN: Three years later, Yankees letting Robinson Cano walk looks like mistake

Ex-Yankee Robinson Cano returned to dominance in 2016, belting a career-high 39 home runs, triple-slashing .298/.350/.533 and ranking sixth in all of baseball with an ESPN Wins Above Replacement of 7.3.

Cano is now three seasons into his 10-year, $240 million contract with the Mariners. And so far — with the exception of the first three months of 2015, when he battled a reported stomach illness and struggled as a result — it’s worked out very well for Seattle.

As has been well-documented, the Yankees could’ve brought Cano back when he became a free agent in 2014. But they opted against offering more than seven years and $175 million to the then 31-year-old All-Star second baseman.

An eight-year, $200 million offer supposedly would’ve done the trick. But the Yankees went in a different direction, giving Jacoby Ellsbury a seven-year, $153 million deal, and deciding to move on from Cano.

I’m pretty sure every team in baseball would have signed 31-year-old Cano for three years and $72M.  How many teams would be rushing to sign a 34-year-old Cano for the seven years and $168M that remain on his deal?

You can’t say letting Cano go was a mistake 30% of the way through.  As opposed to saying signing Ellsbury was a mistake, which was painfully obvious before the ink was even dry on that Hindenburg of a contract.

Actually, let’s do some quick and dirty math.  I’m ignoring bonuses etc., since I want this to be quick and dirty.

Cano’s put up bWAR of 6.4, 3.4 and 7.3 over the last three seasons.  Ellsbury has put up 3.3, 1.9 and 2.8.  Let’s do a 1/2/3 weighted average and add in some regression towards league average to project them for 2017.  I get 5.3 for Cano and 2.5 for Ellsbury.  Using a decline of 0.7 bWAR per season for both players means Cano would project to provide about 22.4 bWAR over the remaining 7 years of his contract and Ellsbury would project to provide 5.8 bWAR over the remaining four of his. 

22.4bWAR / $168,000,000 = $7.5M/bWAR.
5.8bWAR / $84,571,428 = $14,581,281M/bWAR

How about if we add it all up.

Cano: 17.1 bWAR, $72M in salary
Ellsbury: 8 bWAR, $63M in salary

2014-2023 (actual + projections)
Cano: 39.5 bWAR, $240M in salary, $6.075M / bWAR
Ellsbury: 13.8 bWAR, $148M in salary, $10.724M / bWAR


--Posted at 11:14 am by SG / 58 Comments | - (0)

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