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Friday, August 17, 2012

NYDN: Boston Red Sox visit Yankees with improbable dream to earn AL wild card spot

Boston is teetering on falling out of contention, despite winning in Baltimore Thursday night, 6-3. Players have complained to ownership about manager Bobby Valentine on more than one occasion. Owners have held a clandestine meeting with players, and Valentine wasn’t invited. And subsequent to this, all public sentiment has been supportive of the manager. It’s perplexing and reeks of dysfunction. A Yankees sweep could be the wreck on the hiighway.

The Sox say they still believe they will get hot, even though they’ve lost a lot more than they’ve won since the July 26 secret meetings (there also was one between ownership and Valentine). Their reality is it has to happen soon. The teams that lead for the AL wild cards are on pace to win approximately 87 games; the Sox could get there by winning about two out of every three to finish.

Here’s how I have MLB’s postseason odds looking as of this morning.

TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%
Yankees	95	67	814	678	87.6%	8.0%	1.4%	97.0%
Rays	87	75	695	623	9.8%	31.6%	21.4%	62.8%
Orioles	82	80	690	765	1.7%	7.7%	11.3%	20.6%
Red Sox	80	82	804	741	0.6%	3.0%	5.7%	9.3%
Blue Jays	75	87	765	780	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%	0.7%
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%
White Sox	90	72	751	699	66.2%	6.8%	8.5%	81.5%
Tigers	87	75	760	722	33.5%	13.8%	14.3%	61.6%
Indians	73	89	712	813	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%
Royals	71	91	679	749	0.0%	-	-	-
Twins	69	93	727	836	0.0%	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%
Rangers	94	68	816	711	86.5%	5.1%	2.8%	94.3%
Angels	84	78	750	691	6.3%	11.5%	18.9%	36.7%
Athletics	84	78	667	657	6.7%	11.9%	14.4%	33.0%
Mariners	76	86	648	674	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	0.9%
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%
Nationals	98	64	709	601	75.0%	19.8%	5.1%	99.8%
Braves	94	68	747	643	24.8%	49.7%	15.8%	90.3%
Mets	77	85	700	748	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	0.8%
Phillies	75	87	673	692	0.0%	-	-	-
Marlins	71	91	630	712	0.0%	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%
Reds	96	66	703	614	78.6%	7.6%	7.6%	93.8%
Cardinals	90	72	774	653	14.6%	14.2%	35.3%	64.1%
Pirates	87	75	676	684	6.5%	6.8%	24.2%	37.5%
Brewers	76	86	730	730	0.0%	-	0.5%	0.5%
Cubs	65	97	616	731	0.0%	-	-	-
Astros	55	107	610	800	0.0%	-	-	-
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	WC2	PS%
Giants	87	75	683	652	50.1%	0.7%	3.5%	54.3%
Dodgers	86	76	647	632	36.2%	0.7%	4.3%	41.2%
Diamondbacks	83	79	717	681	13.5%	0.2%	2.8%	16.4%
Padres	70	92	618	695	0.0%	-	-	-
Rockies	65	97	766	871	0.0%	-	-	-

Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

The Yankees can’t eliminate Boston with a sweep this weekend, but they can make it almost impossible for them to win the AL East.  If the Yankees sweep Boston and then go 21-20 over the rest of the season, Boston would have to go 36-7 just to tie them.  If the Yankees went 14-27 they’d end up at the 87 wins that the wild card leaders are on target for and Boston would still have to go 29-14 to tie them.

Here are the pitching matchups for this series.

Friday, August 17
Franklin Morales vs. Phil Hughes

Saturday, August 18
Jon Lester vs. David Phelps

Sunday, August 19
Josh Beckett vs. Hiroki Kuroda

Since seemingly turning the corner with his start on May 6, Phil Hughes has had the occasional bad start.  However, until his last two turns in the rotation he’s been able to rebound in the following game.  On May 28 he gave up 7 runs in 5.1 innings in Anaheim and followed that up with a complete game four-hitter where allowed just one run in Detroit.  He gave up six runs at home against Atlanta on June 28 and followed that up with 8 shutout innings vs. Cleveland.  Since May 6, Hughes hadn’t allowed more than three runs in any two consecutive starts until his last two.

But now that he’s had back-to-back poor starts I have to admit my faith in him is shaken.  Tonight’s game would be a nice way to redeem some of that faith, but I’m not betting on him.

I like the other two match ups a bit better.  I’ll be pretty disappointed if the Yankees don’t take at least two of these three games.