The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Astros (101-61) @ Yankees (91-71), Wednesday, 10/18/2017, 05:08p ET
(269 Comments - 10/19/2017 1:32:02 am)

Yankees.com: Judge & fury: Yankees erupt late, tie ALCS!
(52 Comments - 10/18/2017 4:57:44 pm)

Astros (101-61) @ Yankees (91-71), Tuesday, 10/17/2017, 05:08p ET
(434 Comments - 10/18/2017 3:26:53 am)

Yankees.com: Yanks, Judge make Astros CC sick in G3
(48 Comments - 10/17/2017 2:39:18 pm)

Astros (101-61) @ Yankees (91-71), Monday, 10/16/2017, 08:08p ET
(213 Comments - 10/17/2017 9:43:42 am)

Yankees.com: Yankees fall on walk-off into 0-2 ALCS hole
(52 Comments - 10/16/2017 5:03:21 pm)

2017 Cubs vs. Dodgers NLCS Postseason Odds
(1 Comment - 10/16/2017 4:08:29 pm)

Yankees (91-71) @ Astros (101-61), Saturday, 10/14/2017, 04:08p ET
(314 Comments - 10/15/2017 12:42:52 am)

Yankees.com: Tanaka solid, but Yanks stifled in LCS Game 1
(11 Comments - 10/14/2017 10:41:28 am)

Yankees (91-71) @ Astros (101-61), Friday, 10/13/2017, 08:08p ET
(190 Comments - 10/14/2017 10:28:33 am)



Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Wednesday, October 11, 2017

NY Post: Which Kluber will Yankees see? Stats offer conflicting stories

CLEVELAND — The Yankees got to Cleveland ace Corey Kluber in Game 2 for six runs in just 2 ²/₃ innings, knocking the Cy Young candidate out of the game.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is the Yankees went on to lose that game, with Joe Girardi and the bullpen managing to blow a five-run lead.

The other dose of bad news for the Yankees? Kluber rarely has two rough outings in a row.

The only time he surrendered six runs during the regular season, April 15 against the Tigers, he came back to shut out the White Sox in his next outing.

“We’ve seen him extremely sharp and I think we caught him on a night that he wasn’t sharp,” Girardi said. “So you hope you catch him on another night that he’s not sharp.’’

On those nights when Kluber was sharp against the Yankees, they had little chance.

The right-hander held them to a run on three hits in a complete-game victory Aug. 3, when he struck out 11, and then allowed just two runs on three hits in eight innings against them Aug. 28.

Before his Game 2 fiasco, Kluber hadn’t given up more than two runs in an outing since Aug. 13.

Corey Kluber is probably the best pitcher in the American League.  He is miles better than CC Sabathia.  If you believe the Fangraphs depth chart projections, there is almost no difference between the Yankees’ lineup and Cleveland’s lineup.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Brett Gardner LF 5.00 .260/.345/.409 3.28 0.63
Aaron Judge RF 5.00 .253/.363/.528 3.19 0.80
Gary Sanchez C 5.00 .268/.330/.512 3.35 0.75
Didi Gregorius SS 5.00 .273/.316/.440 3.42 0.62
Starlin Castro 2B 4.45 .278/.315/.435 3.05 0.54
Gregory Bird 1B 4.00 .239/.322/.464 2.71 0.53
Todd Frazier 3B 4.00 .235/.324/.456 2.70 0.52
Chase Headley DH 4.00 .258/.337/.398 2.65 0.47
Aaron Hicks CF 4.00 .251/.337/.419 2.65 0.51
Total 40.45 27.00 5.38
Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Francisco Lindor SS 5.00 .289/.349/.478 3.26 0.72
Jason Kipnis CF 5.00 .261/.330/.427 3.35 0.63
Jose Ramirez 2B 5.00 .298/.354/.489 3.23 0.75
Edwin Encarnacion DH 5.00 .261/.367/.513 3.17 0.80
Jay Bruce RF 4.57 .258/.324/.493 3.09 0.65
Carlos Santana 1B 4.00 .258/.372/.470 2.51 0.60
Lonnie Chisenhall LF 4.00 .270/.328/.445 2.69 0.52
Yan Gomes C 4.00 .236/.292/.413 2.83 0.44
Giovanny Urshela 3B 4.00 .246/.281/.357 2.88 0.35
Total 40.57 27.00 5.46

I don’t have actual lineups for tonight, but this should be fairly close.  The Indians are projected to be about 0.08 runs better than the Yankees offensively.  The difference tonight is in the expected performance of the pitching.

Pitcher Role IP R
CC Sabathia SP 5.00 2.79
Chad Green RP 1.00 0.43
David Robertson RP 2.00 0.78
Aroldis Chapman RP 1.00 0.32
Total 9.00 4.32
Pitcher Role IP R
Corey Kluber SP 6.00 2.23
Andrew Miller RP 2.00 0.52
Cody Allen RP 1.00 0.39
Total 9.00 3.14

That translates to a win probability for Cleveland of 67.2% vs. the Yankees 32.8%.  I probably would have started Sonny Gray over Sabathia tonight, but the difference is only about 0.25 runs over five innings and about a 4% change in Yankee win probability.  It doesn’t change the fact that this is one of the largest mismatches in a winner-take-all series finale game ever, and it’s extremely likely the Yankees are going home after tonight.

Frankly, I’m not sure they should even bother playing.

--Posted at 11:54 am by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)



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