Sunday, April 15, 2012
NY Baseball Digest: Silva: Is Cano Worth $300 Million?
That brings me to Cano. He has been called “Rod Carew with power,” but he should belong in the conversation with some of the best in the game at his position. Most believe Joe Morgan is the best second baseman in history. Through the age of 29, Morgan had accumulated 103 HRs, 433 RBI and a batting average of .270. He had two All-Star appearances and had won his first Gold Glove during that 1973 season. In comparison, Cano is also a tw0-time All-Star, won a Gold Glove and a superior offensive player with 144 career HRs, 621 RBI and a .307 batting average.
The Yankees have a $15 million dollar option for next season. Cano will be a free agent after 2013, and undoubtedly one of the most desired on the market. Is it crazy to think someone will offer him an Alex Rodriguez-type contract that exceeds exceeds $27 million AAV?
No.
The Morgan comparison is specious at best, and intellectually dishonest at worst. It completely ignores the respective contexts of the two (Morgan put up a 129 OPS+ and 47.0 Baseball Reference WAR through age 29, compared to Cano’s 119 and 28.5).
Ian Kinsler just signed for five years and $75M. He’s averaged about 4.7 WAR over the last three years compared to Cano’s 5.0. Even if you think Cano’s a win better than Kinsler, a more reasonable contract might pay him by about $5M more per season. Maybe you go to six or seven years for Cano, which I wouldn’t do, but anyway that means something like 6/$120M or 7/$140M.
$30M a year? No freaking way.
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