The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

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NY Post: Scout’s mysterious concerns over Yankees’ hyped prospect
(55 Comments - 10/22/2016 11:14:10 pm)

NYDN: Indians, Cubs benefiting from deadline trades with Yankees
(71 Comments - 10/20/2016 10:19:02 am)

NY Post: This is just what Yankees wanted to see from James Kaprielian
(66 Comments - 10/18/2016 3:08:21 am)

Lohud: Eight Yankees prospects get started in Arizona Fall League today
(43 Comments - 10/13/2016 9:29:30 pm)

ESPN: Yankees GM Brian Cashman will resist trading prospects for veteran stars
(121 Comments - 10/12/2016 5:31:00 pm)

FOX Sports: 20 years ago today, Jeffrey Maier gave Derek Jeter and the Yankees a boost
(73 Comments - 10/11/2016 10:24:35 pm)

Bloomberg: Mets Beat Yankees in Local TV Ratings for First Time Ever
(86 Comments - 10/6/2016 3:29:01 pm)

NY Post: Yankees say goodbye to Mark Teixeira and end on sour note
(54 Comments - 10/4/2016 9:07:01 am)

Orioles (88-73) @ Yankees (84-77), Sunday, 10/2/2016, 3:05PM ET
(23 Comments - 10/3/2016 2:05:20 pm)

Orioles (87-72) @ Yankees (83-76), Friday, 9/30/2016, 7:05pm
(44 Comments - 10/2/2016 9:52:54 am)


Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.

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Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.

Friday, February 15, 2013 McCullough: Nova hopes to rebound from miserable second half of 2012

TAMPA, Fla. – Do you like sabermetrics? I like sabermetrics. I appreciate how statistics underpin the game. You should remember this, going forward.

As a sabermetrically-inclined person, I looked at some of Yankee starter Ivan Nova’s statistics and saw a pitcher who took a step forward in 2012. He raised his strikeout rate from 5.3 per nine in 2011 to 8.1 last year, while maintaining his walk rate (3.1 in 2011, 3.0 in 2012). He lowered his xFIP from 4.16 to 3.92.

If you subscribe to DIPS* theory, as I do, you would posit that Nova experienced progress from his 16-win campaign in 2011. You might even say he had a good year.

But, of course, Ivan Nova did not have a good year. Ivan Nova had a terrible year. His ERA was 5.03. His ERA was 6.38 after June. He missed two weeks with an inflamed rotator cuff. Manager Joe Girardi twice left him off the postseason roster.

If you’re looking for one way for the Yankees to add to their projected win total, McCullough’s on the right track with this.  The question is if Nova’s improved walk and strikeout rate came at the expense of leaving more hittable pitches over the middle of the plate, or if he had some bad fortune last year and can take the gains between 2011 to 2012 forward and pitch closer to that 3.92 xFIP than his 5.02 2012 ERA.  Nova’s baseline CAIRO RA is 4.99.  If he can pitch to his 80% forecasted RA of 4.36 over 164 innings, that’s a 1.1 win improvement.

I’m cautiously optimistic on Nova, but I was cautiously optimistic all of 2012 too…

--Posted at 7:26 am by SG / 28 Comments | - (0)

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