The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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TGS NY: Can McCann help lead the Bombers back?
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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Thursday, January 12, 2012

NJ.com: Carig: Yankees meet with Edwin Jackson’s agent

NEW YORK — Yankees managing partner Hal Steinbrenner met with agent Scott Boras tonight to discuss pitcher Edwin Jackson, perhaps the top pitcher left on the free agent market.

Boras requested the meeting, according to a person with knowledge of the situation, who requested anonymity so they could speak candidly.

I’ve bolded the key point here.  I don’t think the Yankees are aggressively pursuing Jackson, but I do think they’d consider him if his price comes down to a certain point.

I’d have no problem with Jackson on the right terms.  So what are the right terms?  Here’s how CAIRO would project Jackson as a Yankee for 2012.

% G GS W L IP H R ER HR BB HBP SO RA ERA FIP RAR WAR
80% 35 35 14 10 218 228 96 89 18 64 2 174 3.98 3.67 3.40 51 5.1
65% 33 33 12 11 208 225 98 91 20 65 3 160 4.25 3.93 3.68 42 4.2
Baseline 31 31 11 11 198 222 99 92 21 66 4 146 4.52 4.18 3.97 34 3.4
35% 25 25 9 9 158 184 84 78 19 56 4 112 4.79 4.44 4.26 23 2.3
20% 22 22 7 8 139 166 78 72 18 52 4 94 5.05 4.69 4.55 16 1.6

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs saved above replacement level using RA
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)

Since you almost certainly can’t sign him for one year, here’s a look at how he’d project over the next five years.

Year Age G GS W L IP H R ER HR BB HBP SO RA ERA FIP RAR WAR
2012 29 31 31 11 11 198 222 99 92 21 66 4 146 4.52 4.18 3.97 34 3.4
2013 30 31 31 11 11 198 228 104 96 22 68 4 140 4.70 4.35 4.14 30 3.0
2014 31 30 30 10 10 188 219 104 96 23 65 4 124 4.96 4.59 4.37 23 2.3
2015 32 28 28 10 10 179 213 102 95 23 62 4 114 5.14 4.76 4.52 19 1.9
2016 33 27 27 9 9 170 207 102 94 24 60 3 102 5.39 4.99 4.74 13 1.3

Five years adds up to about 12.0 WAR.  So something like 5 years/$60M is fair.  If they could keep it to four years and $50M they have a good chance of getting some surplus value out of him and he’d probably still be close to league average by the end of the fourth year.

I don’t know that Jackson’s the type of pitcher you want to commit long-term too.  However, given the fact that he’s played for six different teams, he seems like the type of pitcher teams like to get their hands on.  I’d guess that’s because he’s got a 95 mph fastball and is still relatively young.  So he’s probably someone you can trade down the road provided he doesn’t go A.J. on you.

Then again, the fact that he’s been moved around so much might be an indicator that teams got tired of waiting for him to take a step forward.

I think I’d be fine with Jackson on a 4 year, $50M deal.  It wouldn’t excite me, but it wouldn’t be as monumentally stupid as signing a middle reliever for $36M.  Speaking hypothetically of course.  No team’s that stupid, are they?

--Posted at 10:41 am by SG / 77 Comments | - (0)



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