Thursday, January 12, 2012
NJ.com: Carig: Yankees meet with Edwin Jackson’s agent
NEW YORK — Yankees managing partner Hal Steinbrenner met with agent Scott Boras tonight to discuss pitcher Edwin Jackson, perhaps the top pitcher left on the free agent market.
Boras requested the meeting, according to a person with knowledge of the situation, who requested anonymity so they could speak candidly.
I’ve bolded the key point here. I don’t think the Yankees are aggressively pursuing Jackson, but I do think they’d consider him if his price comes down to a certain point.
I’d have no problem with Jackson on the right terms. So what are the right terms? Here’s how CAIRO would project Jackson as a Yankee for 2012.
| % | G | GS | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 80% | 35 | 35 | 14 | 10 | 218 | 228 | 96 | 89 | 18 | 64 | 2 | 174 | 3.98 | 3.67 | 3.40 | 51 | 5.1 |
| 65% | 33 | 33 | 12 | 11 | 208 | 225 | 98 | 91 | 20 | 65 | 3 | 160 | 4.25 | 3.93 | 3.68 | 42 | 4.2 |
| Baseline | 31 | 31 | 11 | 11 | 198 | 222 | 99 | 92 | 21 | 66 | 4 | 146 | 4.52 | 4.18 | 3.97 | 34 | 3.4 |
| 35% | 25 | 25 | 9 | 9 | 158 | 184 | 84 | 78 | 19 | 56 | 4 | 112 | 4.79 | 4.44 | 4.26 | 23 | 2.3 |
| 20% | 22 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 139 | 166 | 78 | 72 | 18 | 52 | 4 | 94 | 5.05 | 4.69 | 4.55 | 16 | 1.6 |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs saved above replacement level using RA
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
Since you almost certainly can’t sign him for one year, here’s a look at how he’d project over the next five years.
| Year | Age | G | GS | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RAR | WAR |
| 2012 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 11 | 11 | 198 | 222 | 99 | 92 | 21 | 66 | 4 | 146 | 4.52 | 4.18 | 3.97 | 34 | 3.4 |
| 2013 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 11 | 11 | 198 | 228 | 104 | 96 | 22 | 68 | 4 | 140 | 4.70 | 4.35 | 4.14 | 30 | 3.0 |
| 2014 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 10 | 10 | 188 | 219 | 104 | 96 | 23 | 65 | 4 | 124 | 4.96 | 4.59 | 4.37 | 23 | 2.3 |
| 2015 | 32 | 28 | 28 | 10 | 10 | 179 | 213 | 102 | 95 | 23 | 62 | 4 | 114 | 5.14 | 4.76 | 4.52 | 19 | 1.9 |
| 2016 | 33 | 27 | 27 | 9 | 9 | 170 | 207 | 102 | 94 | 24 | 60 | 3 | 102 | 5.39 | 4.99 | 4.74 | 13 | 1.3 |
Five years adds up to about 12.0 WAR. So something like 5 years/$60M is fair. If they could keep it to four years and $50M they have a good chance of getting some surplus value out of him and he’d probably still be close to league average by the end of the fourth year.
I don’t know that Jackson’s the type of pitcher you want to commit long-term too. However, given the fact that he’s played for six different teams, he seems like the type of pitcher teams like to get their hands on. I’d guess that’s because he’s got a 95 mph fastball and is still relatively young. So he’s probably someone you can trade down the road provided he doesn’t go A.J. on you.
Then again, the fact that he’s been moved around so much might be an indicator that teams got tired of waiting for him to take a step forward.
I think I’d be fine with Jackson on a 4 year, $50M deal. It wouldn’t excite me, but it wouldn’t be as monumentally stupid as signing a middle reliever for $36M. Speaking hypothetically of course. No team’s that stupid, are they?
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