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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Friday, January 13, 2012

Montero/Noesi for Pineda/Campos? Kuroda signed?

@GregJohnsMLB Greg Johns
No confirmation from team, but source says Mariners sending Pineda and Jose Campos to Yankees for Jesus Montero/Hector Noesi.

First thought is that I don’t like this.  But I’ll do an analysis on it tomorrow.

Update: I like this better.

@JackCurryYES
Big night for the Yankees. They have agreed to a 1-year deal with Kuroda, pending a physical. Deal will be between $10 and $11 million.

The Yankees will have the best 7 man rotation in baseball.  Who needs a DH, really?

Update v2:  Projections for Pineda and Kuroda as Yankees

Player Michael Pineda
mlbam_id 501381
Age 23
% G GS W L IP H R ER HR BB HBP SO RA ERA FIP RAR WAR
80% 32 32 12 9 193 159 81 75 19 53 3 195 3.77 3.49 3.12 50 5.0
65% 30 30 11 10 185 158 84 78 21 54 4 180 4.07 3.77 3.45 41 4.1
Baseline 28 28 10 9 168 150 82 76 21 53 5 157 4.37 4.06 3.79 32 3.2
35% 22 22 7 8 134 125 70 65 19 45 5 121 4.67 4.35 4.13 21 2.1
20% 19 19 6 7 118 114 65 61 18 42 5 101 4.98 4.64 4.46 14 1.4
Player Hiroki Kuroda
mlbam_id 493133
Age 37
% G GS W L IP H R ER HR BB HBP SO RA ERA FIP RAR WAR
80% 33 33 13 9 202 199 90 78 18 43 3 155 4.00 3.49 3.32 47 4.7
65% 31 31 12 9 191 196 91 80 20 44 4 141 4.29 3.75 3.62 38 3.8
Baseline 29 29 11 9 182 193 92 81 21 45 5 128 4.57 4.01 3.92 31 3.1
35% 24 24 8 8 146 160 79 69 19 39 5 98 4.86 4.28 4.22 20 2.0
20% 21 21 7 7 127 145 73 64 18 36 5 82 5.14 4.54 4.52 13 1.3

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs saved above replacement level using RA
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)

The Yankees added two pitchers that project to be better than their second starter a few hours ago.  I hate losing Jesus Montero’s long-term potential, but truthfully, his CAIRO projection as a DH was barely above replacement level.  The Yankees may regret this trade at some point, but it makes them stronger in 2012 and at least they traded Montero for a 23 year old with five years of team control left and with a big-time arm. 

Back of envelope projection says that as long as they add a league average bat to serve as either the primary DH or to play all over the field while they DH the regulars, they went from something like:

CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 5.5 WAR
Ivan Nova, 190 IP, 2.0 WAR
Phil Hughes, 175 IP, 1.9 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 175 IP, 1.2 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 150 IP, 2.2 WAR
Hector Noesi, 50 IP, 0.0 WAR
Adam Warren, 25 IP, 0.0 WAR
David Phelps, 15 IP, 0.0 WAR
Starters, 1000 IP, 12.8 WAR

to something more like:

CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 5.5 WAR
Hiroki Kuroda, 180 IP, 2.3 WAR
Michael Pineda, 175 IP, 2.3 WAR
Ivan Nova, 175 IP, 1.8 WAR
Phil Hughes, 100 IP, 1.1 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 100 IP, 0.7 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 100 IP, 1.4 WAR
Starters, 1050 IP, 15.2 WAR

I am being somewhat conservative on innings with Pineda and Nova by design, and if the Yankees would dump Burnett I’d give his innings to Hughes and Garcia and it would make them look even better. 

They’ve probably added about three wins tonight, which if added to the last batch of still early and mostly useless projections makes them the best team in baseball.  Yay.

--Posted at 8:26 pm by SG / 135 Comments | - (0)



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