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Friday, January 13, 2012

Montero/Noesi for Pineda/Campos? Kuroda signed?

@GregJohnsMLB Greg Johns
No confirmation from team, but source says Mariners sending Pineda and Jose Campos to Yankees for Jesus Montero/Hector Noesi.

First thought is that I don’t like this.  But I’ll do an analysis on it tomorrow.

Update: I like this better.

@JackCurryYES
Big night for the Yankees. They have agreed to a 1-year deal with Kuroda, pending a physical. Deal will be between $10 and $11 million.

The Yankees will have the best 7 man rotation in baseball.  Who needs a DH, really?

Update v2:  Projections for Pineda and Kuroda as Yankees

Player	Michael Pineda
mlbam_id	501381
Age	23
%	G	GS	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	32	32	12	9	193	159	81	75	19	53	3	195	3.77	3.49	3.12	50	5.0
65%	30	30	11	10	185	158	84	78	21	54	4	180	4.07	3.77	3.45	41	4.1
Baseline	28	28	10	9	168	150	82	76	21	53	5	157	4.37	4.06	3.79	32	3.2
35%	22	22	7	8	134	125	70	65	19	45	5	121	4.67	4.35	4.13	21	2.1
20%	19	19	6	7	118	114	65	61	18	42	5	101	4.98	4.64	4.46	14	1.4
Player	Hiroki Kuroda
mlbam_id	493133
Age	37
%	G	GS	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
80%	33	33	13	9	202	199	90	78	18	43	3	155	4.00	3.49	3.32	47	4.7
65%	31	31	12	9	191	196	91	80	20	44	4	141	4.29	3.75	3.62	38	3.8
Baseline	29	29	11	9	182	193	92	81	21	45	5	128	4.57	4.01	3.92	31	3.1
35%	24	24	8	8	146	160	79	69	19	39	5	98	4.86	4.28	4.22	20	2.0
20%	21	21	7	7	127	145	73	64	18	36	5	82	5.14	4.54	4.52	13	1.3

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs saved above replacement level using RA
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)

The Yankees added two pitchers that project to be better than their second starter a few hours ago.  I hate losing Jesus Montero’s long-term potential, but truthfully, his CAIRO projection as a DH was barely above replacement level.  The Yankees may regret this trade at some point, but it makes them stronger in 2012 and at least they traded Montero for a 23 year old with five years of team control left and with a big-time arm. 

Back of envelope projection says that as long as they add a league average bat to serve as either the primary DH or to play all over the field while they DH the regulars, they went from something like:

CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 5.5 WAR
Ivan Nova, 190 IP, 2.0 WAR
Phil Hughes, 175 IP, 1.9 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 175 IP, 1.2 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 150 IP, 2.2 WAR
Hector Noesi, 50 IP, 0.0 WAR
Adam Warren, 25 IP, 0.0 WAR
David Phelps, 15 IP, 0.0 WAR
Starters, 1000 IP, 12.8 WAR

to something more like:

CC Sabathia, 220 IP, 5.5 WAR
Hiroki Kuroda, 180 IP, 2.3 WAR
Michael Pineda, 175 IP, 2.3 WAR
Ivan Nova, 175 IP, 1.8 WAR
Phil Hughes, 100 IP, 1.1 WAR
A.J. Burnett, 100 IP, 0.7 WAR
Freddy Garcia, 100 IP, 1.4 WAR
Starters, 1050 IP, 15.2 WAR

I am being somewhat conservative on innings with Pineda and Nova by design, and if the Yankees would dump Burnett I’d give his innings to Hughes and Garcia and it would make them look even better. 

They’ve probably added about three wins tonight, which if added to the last batch of still early and mostly useless projections makes them the best team in baseball.  Yay.