The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Yankees (55-51) @ Rangers (42-65), Wednesday, July 30, 2014, 8:05pm
(39 Comments - 7/30/2014 11:14:18 pm)

Yankees.com: Seven-run sixth helps Yanks hold off Rangers
(6 Comments - 7/30/2014 7:21:07 pm)

The Sustainability of TPBG
(18 Comments - 7/30/2014 4:34:22 pm)

Yankees (54-51) @ Rangers (42-64), Tuesday, July 29, 2014, 8:05pm
(101 Comments - 7/30/2014 12:22:46 am)

Anonymous MLB Scout: They[The Yankees] have more in their farm system than people think
(19 Comments - 7/29/2014 4:48:09 pm)

Yankees.com: Gardner has Yu’s number, but Yanks fall in Texas
(8 Comments - 7/29/2014 11:50:16 am)

Yankees (54-50) @ Rangers (41-64), Monday, July 28, 2014, 8:05pm
(51 Comments - 7/28/2014 11:26:34 pm)

USA Today: Injured Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki shows up at Yankees game
(14 Comments - 7/28/2014 7:42:37 pm)

NJ.com: Yankees end homestand with 5-4 loss to Blue Jays
(13 Comments - 7/28/2014 4:03:33 pm)

Blue Jays (54-50) @ Yankees (54-48), Saturday, July 26, 2014, 1:05pm
(92 Comments - 7/28/2014 10:14:35 am)



Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Friday, March 14, 2014

Looking Ahead to 2014 - Mark Teixeira

It’s been all downhill since Mark Teixeira’s fantastic 2009, and now we can add a significant wrist injury to our list of concerns.

2013

pa ab h 2b 3b hr bb hbp so sb cs avg obp slg ops woba oWAR
63 53 8 1 0 3 8 1 19 0 0 .151 .270 .340 .609 .262 -0.2

woba:  Weighted on-base average
oWAR: Offensive wins above replacement level, position-adjusted

Teixeira injured his wrist while preparing to play in the WBC.  Because of that, his injury was covered by MLB’s insurance. The Yankees used that money to trade for Vernon Wells, which is a whole other issue.

Teixeira tried to rush back without surgery and managed 63 putrid PA before having to be shut down for the season.  Because he was activated from the DL, MLB’s insurance no longer covered his absence.

2014 Projections

projection pa ab h 2b 3b hr bb hbp so sb cs avg obp slg ops woba oWAR
cairo 408 351 84 17 0 20 45 6 74 2 1 .240 .331 .462 .793 .342 1.2
oliver 600 518 122 26 0 25 68 8 107 2 1 .236 .329 .431 .760 .332 1.2
steamer 566 490 120 24 1 26 63 7 105 3 2 .244 .335 .458 .793 .346 1.8
zips 351 306 76 15 0 17 40 5 66 1 1 .248 .340 .464 .804 .356 1.4
average 481 416 101 20 0 22 54 6 88 2 1 .242 .334 .451 .786 .345 1.4

Even without his injury, Teixeira’s performance has been plummeting.  The wrist introduces even more uncertainty in how good he’ll be going forward.  The wrist mainly affects him when batting against RHP, which has been his weaker side anyway and is unfortunately the majority of the pitchers he’ll face.  I think trying to project Teixeira is a crapshoot.  There have been hitters who have come back from similar injuries, so it’s not unrealistic to think Teixeira can make it back.

2014 CAIRO Percentile Forecasts

percentile pa ab h 2b 3b hr bb hbp so sb cs avg obp slg ops woba owar
80% 613 526 140 32 2 37 77 12 98 5 0 .266 .375 .542 .917 .399 3.8
65% 510 439 111 24 1 28 60 9 87 3 1 .253 .353 .502 .855 .372 2.3
Baseline 408 351 84 17 0 20 45 6 74 2 1 .240 .331 .462 .793 .342 1.2
35% 306 263 60 11 0 13 31 3 59 1 1 .227 .308 .422 .730 .318 0.3
20% 204 175 38 6 0 8 19 2 41 0 1 .214 .286 .382 .668 .291 -0.1

I think Teixeira will not hit much better than the baseline, but could get to 500 PA which would make him worth two or three more runs.

Defense

pos Inn DRS UZR ZR avg p150
1b 765 6 5 2 4 8

DRS: Defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
ZR: Standard Zone Rating
avg: Average of DRS, UZR and ZR
p150: avg pro-rated to 150 games

Teixeira should add some value on defense, dependent on how much he can play.

Value

projection oWAR def WAR
cairo 1.2 4 1.6
oliver 1.2 4 1.6
steamer 1.8 4 2.3
zips 1.4 4 1.9
average 1.4 4 1.8

Teixeira’s projected value is suppressed by the reduced playing time.  If he can give the Yankees a full season he could be in the 2 to 2.5 win range.

That’s not worth $22M per season, but it would be about two wins better than what the Yankees got out of 1B in 2013.  So that’s something.

--Posted at 8:20 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)



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