Friday, March 14, 2014
Looking Ahead to 2014 - Mark Teixeira
It’s been all downhill since Mark Teixeira’s fantastic 2009, and now we can add a significant wrist injury to our list of concerns.
woba: Weighted on-base average
oWAR: Offensive wins above replacement level, position-adjusted
Teixeira injured his wrist while preparing to play in the WBC. Because of that, his injury was covered by MLB’s insurance. The Yankees used that money to trade for Vernon Wells, which is a whole other issue.
Teixeira tried to rush back without surgery and managed 63 putrid PA before having to be shut down for the season. Because he was activated from the DL, MLB’s insurance no longer covered his absence.
Even without his injury, Teixeira’s performance has been plummeting. The wrist introduces even more uncertainty in how good he’ll be going forward. The wrist mainly affects him when batting against RHP, which has been his weaker side anyway and is unfortunately the majority of the pitchers he’ll face. I think trying to project Teixeira is a crapshoot. There have been hitters who have come back from similar injuries, so it’s not unrealistic to think Teixeira can make it back.
2014 CAIRO Percentile Forecasts
I think Teixeira will not hit much better than the baseline, but could get to 500 PA which would make him worth two or three more runs.
Teixeira should add some value on defense, dependent on how much he can play.
Teixeira’s projected value is suppressed by the reduced playing time. If he can give the Yankees a full season he could be in the 2 to 2.5 win range.
That’s not worth $22M per season, but it would be about two wins better than what the Yankees got out of 1B in 2013. So that’s something.
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