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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Looking Ahead to 2014 - Brian Roberts

The Yankees decided to let their best player leave, and replaced him with Brian Roberts.  Roberts was a pretty good player as recently as five years ago, but since 2010 he’s suffered from concussion-related issues and injuries that have kept him off the field and hindered his performance when he was on it.  He did manage to stay healthy in the second half of 2013 and he’s penciled in(hopefully very lightly) as the Yankees’ starting 2B this year.

2013

pa ab h 2b 3b hr bb hbp so sb cs avg obp slg ops woba oWAR
681 605 190 41 0 27 65 6 85 7 1 .314 .383 .516 .899 .384 5.8

woba:  Weighted on-base average
oWAR: Offensive wins above replacement level, position-adjusted

Oh, sorry.  Wrong 2B.

pa ab h 2b 3b hr bb hbp so sb cs avg obp slg ops woba oWAR
296 265 66 12 1 8 26 0 44 3 1 .249 .312 .392 .704 .309 -0.2

Roberts didn’t hit much in 2013, but he did stay on the field for most of the second half and he hit .250/.306/.450 in September.

2014 Projections

projection pa ab h 2b 3b hr bb hbp so sb cs avg obp slg ops woba oWAR
cairo 683 611 186 40 1 28 58 7 93 6 2 .303 .368 .514 .882 .379 5.4
oliver 600 533 154 31 1 19 56 6 77 5 2 .289 .360 .458 .818 .353 4.2
steamer 644 576 170 41 1 21 54 7 88 4 3 .295 .360 .477 .837 .359 5.0
zips 665 602 171 37 2 22 55 8 94 6 2 .284 .349 .462 .811 .358 5.5
average 648 581 170 37 1 23 56 7 88 5 2 .293 .360 .479 .839 .366 5.0

Oh, sorry.  Wrong 2B.

projection pa ab h 2b 3b hr bb hbp so sb cs avg obp slg ops woba oWAR
cairo 279 248 61 12 1 6 24 1 45 4 1 .245 .309 .366 .675 .298 0.5
oliver 600 539 126 26 1 10 52 1 101 7 3 .234 .300 .341 .641 .286 0.4
steamer 305 274 67 14 1 6 24 2 47 5 2 .245 .308 .369 .677 .300 0.6
zips 212 195 48 9 1 4 17 0 35 3 1 .246 .304 .364 .668 .299 0.4
average 349 314 75 15 1 6 29 1 57 5 2 .240 .303 .356 .659 .293 0.4

If you can’t say anything nice…

2014 CAIRO Percentile Forecasts

percentile pa ab h 2b 3b hr bb hbp so sb cs avg obp slg ops woba owar
80% 558 497 137 31 3 16 58 3 77 12 0 .276 .356 .447 .803 .355 3.0
65% 419 373 97 21 2 10 40 2 63 7 1 .260 .332 .407 .738 .326 1.5
Baseline 279 248 61 12 1 6 24 1 45 4 1 .245 .309 .366 .675 .298 0.5
35% 209 186 43 8 0 3 16 0 36 2 1 .229 .283 .326 .609 .270 -0.1
20% 140 124 26 4 0 2 10 0 26 1 1 .213 .258 .285 .544 .241 -0.3

I suppose if Roberts can get 560 PA he would be worth a win or so offensively.

Defense

pos Inn DRS UZR ZR avg p150
2b 436 -2 -1 0 -1 -3

DRS: Defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
ZR: Standard Zone Rating
avg: Average of DRS, UZR and ZR
p150: avg pro-rated to 150 games

Roberts was once an above average defensive 2B.  At this stage, he’s probably not.

Value

projection oWAR def WAR
cairo 0.5 -1 0.4
oliver 0.4 -1 0.3
steamer 0.6 -1 0.5
zips 0.4 -1 0.3
average 0.4 -1 0.4

I used to call Roberts PITA, because he was a pain in the ass when he was on Baltimore.  I am surprised his career line against the Yankees is only .288/.344/.429.  I could have sworn it was 1.000/1.000/2.000.

I’d be surprised if Roberts is the Yankee 2B by the All Star Break.  I don’t see any reason to think he’s going to suddenly remain healthy after four seasons of not being healthy.  I also see no reason to think he’s going to hit particularly well if he does remain healthy.  So at some point he could be replaced by Scott Sizemore or Dean Anna or Yangervis Solarte or (heaven forbid) Eduardo Nunez.  But it’s safe to say no matter who ends as the primary 2B for the 2014 Yankees, he will be significantly worse than Robinson Cano was in 2013.

I think the Cano contract was a bad one.  I don’t think that signing a 31 year old player to a 10 year deal no matter how good he is at the moment is prudent.  It probably won’t be as bad as the Jacoby Ellsbury contract, but I digress.

I don’t see Roberts and whomever eventually replaces him changing the fact the Yankees will miss Cano greatly.

--Posted at 12:03 pm by SG / 54 Comments | - (0)



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