The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Blue Jays (77-76) @ Yankees (79-74), Saturday, September 20, 2014, 4:05pm
(4 Comments - 9/20/2014 3:47:40 pm)

Blue Jays (77-75) @ Yankees (78-74), Friday, September 19, 2014, 7:05pm
(24 Comments - 9/20/2014 1:42:00 pm)

NY Times: Against Blue Jays, Derek Jeter and Yankees Show Signs of Life
(24 Comments - 9/19/2014 4:02:27 pm)

Blue Jays (77-74) @ Yankees (77-74), Thursday, September 18, 2014, 7:05pm
(25 Comments - 9/19/2014 9:14:56 am)

NJ.com: Derek Jeter breaks his slump
(19 Comments - 9/18/2014 6:36:21 pm)

Yankees (76-74) @ Rays (74-78), Wednesday, September 17, 2014, 7:10pm
(38 Comments - 9/18/2014 10:13:41 am)

Yankees.com: Rays open floodgates on Yanks after close call
(21 Comments - 9/17/2014 3:22:32 pm)

Yankees (76-73) @ Rays (73-78), Tuesday, September 16, 2014, 7:10pm
(37 Comments - 9/16/2014 11:10:30 pm)

NY Post: Yankees eliminated from East, wild-card hopes all but over
(42 Comments - 9/16/2014 4:50:39 pm)

Yankees (76-72) @ Rays (72-78), Monday, September 15, 2014, 7:10pm
(34 Comments - 9/16/2014 3:55:59 pm)



Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Looking Ahead to 2014 - Alfonso Soriano

In their misguided attempt to make the postseason with a woefully inadequate roster last year, the Yankees traded for Alfonso Soriano in mid-July.  Soriano hit pretty well after the Yankees acquired him, but it wasn’t enough to push them into the postseason.

2013

pa ab h 2b 3b hr bb hbp so sb cs avg obp slg ops woba oWAR
626 581 148 32 1 34 36 5 156 18 9 .255 .302 .489 .791 .340 2.1

woba:  Weighted on-base average
oWAR: Offensive wins above replacement level, position-adjusted

Soriano hit .254/.287/.467 for the Cubs vs. .256/.325/.525 for the Yankees.  He is still pretty much the player he was when he left the Yankees, a low-OBP, high SLG hitter who will strike out a lot. 

2014 Projections

projection pa ab h 2b 3b hr bb hbp so sb cs avg obp slg ops woba oWAR
cairo 600 550 137 28 1 27 38 5 154 9 5 .250 .301 .453 .754 .322 1.8
oliver 600 548 130 26 1 29 42 6 160 17 6 .237 .297 .447 .744 .321 1.5
steamer 593 544 127 27 1 25 38 5 147 11 6 .233 .287 .424 .711 .309 0.5
zips 566 527 130 27 1 32 34 5 157 12 6 .247 .297 .484 .781 .340 2.0
average 590 542 131 27 1 28 38 5 155 12 6 .242 .296 .452 .748 .325 1.4

These projections assume Soriano is in LF.  As a DH he would be about a win less valuable relatively.  He still projects to have pretty good power, but he makes too many outs.

2014 CAIRO Percentile Forecasts

percentile pa ab h 2b 3b hr bb hbp so sb cs avg obp slg ops woba owar
80% 648 594 161 36 3 35 47 8 153 13 3 .271 .334 .517 .851 .370 3.8
65% 624 572 149 32 2 31 42 6 154 11 4 .260 .317 .485 .802 .348 2.7
Baseline 600 550 137 28 1 27 38 5 154 9 5 .250 .301 .453 .754 .322 1.8
35% 450 413 99 19 1 18 26 3 120 5 4 .239 .283 .422 .705 .306 0.7
20% 300 275 63 11 0 11 16 1 83 3 3 .228 .267 .390 .656 .285 0.0

Soriano still appears to be in great shape and I suppose it’s feasible he could exceed his baseline projection, but I wonder how well he will handle DHing.  Most players hit worse as DH, and Soriano has only been a DH in 35 games in his career.  Because of that, I would not expect him to do much better than his CAIRO baseline.

Defense

pos Inn DRS UZR ZR avg p150
lf 1121 -4 8 0 1 1

DRS: Defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
ZR: Standard Zone Rating
avg: Average of DRS, UZR and ZR
p150: avg pro-rated to 150 games

The disparity between DRS and UZR on Soriano’s defense in LF is interesting.  I thought he looked fine in the outfield and is probably about average defensively.  Although Carlos Beltran is expected to see most of his time in RF, Soriano may be a better defender than him at this point.

Value

projection oWAR def WAR
cairo 1.8 1 1.9
oliver 1.5 1 1.6
steamer 0.5 1 0.6
zips 2.0 1 2.1
average 1.4 1 1.6

These values are assuming Soriano is in LF.  As a DH he’d be about one win less valuable.  Since it’s pretty likely he will see a fair amount of time in the OF, we can probably split the difference and say he’ll be worth anywhere from 1-1.5 wins this year.

That’s not great, but it’s worth noting that Yankee DHs hit .189/.276/.307 in 650 PA which was only worth about 50 runs.  Soriano’s baseline projection over 650 PA would be worth 75 runs.

Soriano’s allegedly considering retirement after this season, and if this is it he’s had a heck of a career.  2045 hits, 406 HRs, 288 SBs, and a .272/.321/.504 career line.  Hopefully he has a good enough season that he doesn’t want to retire.

--Posted at 8:11 am by SG / 16 Comments | - (0)



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