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Blue Jays (77-75) @ Yankees (78-74), Friday, September 19, 2014, 7:05pm
(12 Comments - 9/19/2014 8:05:32 pm)

NY Times: Against Blue Jays, Derek Jeter and Yankees Show Signs of Life
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Blue Jays (77-74) @ Yankees (77-74), Thursday, September 18, 2014, 7:05pm
(25 Comments - 9/19/2014 9:14:56 am)

NJ.com: Derek Jeter breaks his slump
(19 Comments - 9/18/2014 6:36:21 pm)

Yankees (76-74) @ Rays (74-78), Wednesday, September 17, 2014, 7:10pm
(38 Comments - 9/18/2014 10:13:41 am)

Yankees.com: Rays open floodgates on Yanks after close call
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Yankees (76-73) @ Rays (73-78), Tuesday, September 16, 2014, 7:10pm
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NY Post: Yankees eliminated from East, wild-card hopes all but over
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Yankees (76-72) @ Rays (72-78), Monday, September 15, 2014, 7:10pm
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NY Times: Yankees Grab Lead in the Ninth, but Then It Slips Through Their Hands
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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Monday, February 27, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Mark Teixeira

Next up, it’s Mark Teixeira.

2011
For the second straight year, Teixeira declined, as he hit a career low .248, which combined with his lowest walk rate since 2005 gave him the second lowest OBP of his career.  Texeira hit for a bit more power than he had in 2010 as measured by ISO (SLG - AVG), but was still below where he was in 2009. 

Here’s how Teixeira’s 2011 performance compared to his average 2011 projection adjusted to the same number of PA.

projection PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SO AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BR/650
average 684 583 161 37 1 34 86 10 114 .276 .376 .515 .384 110 104
2011 684 589 146 26 1 39 76 11 110 .248 .341 .494 .358 99 94
delta 6 -15 -11 0 5 -10 1 -4 -.028 -.035 -.021 -.026 -11 -10

So he hit 11 fewer doubles and 9 fewer singles, while adding 5 HRs.  He also walked 10 fewer times than expected.  The chief culprit here was the big drop in Teixeira’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play).  Teixeira had a career low BABIP of .239.  The defensive shift teams play on him is at least part of that, but he’s gone from a .302 BABIP in 2009 to a .268 BABIP in 2010 to a .239 BABIP in 2011.  When I see something like that, my first impulse is to think that we’re seeing a trend, but things that appear to be trends in baseball are often just random fluctuations.

I thought it might be useful to look at players who’ve seen a similar drop in BABIP and what it meant for their careers.  So I pulled a list of all players since 1990 who had at least 300 AB in a season and then looked for the ones who had exhibited a similar overall drop in BABIP over a three year stretch and found what they did in the fourth year. 

Teixeira’s gone from a BABIP of .302 to .269 over the past thee years, a drop of .063, so I looked at all players who had at least a .050 drop in BABIP over a three year stretch, which gave me a list of 155 players.  I won’t put the list on this post, but you can look at it via this link.

Of those 155 players, 120 had a better BABIP in year four than they had in year three.  On average, players on this list improved on their year three BABIP by about .027.  I’ll note the caveat that there’s some selection bias in here because if a player didn’t improve on his BABIP in year four he would have had a harder time getting another 300 AB.  But I think this is pretty good evidence that Teixeira can recover some of those missing hits in 2012.  For whatever it’s worth, if you add .027 BABIP to Teixeira’s 2011 he’d have 8 more singles and 4 more doubles, and would move from a line of .248/.341/.494 to a line of .268/.379/.521 which is about as close to his average 2011 projection of .276/.376/.515 as you could hope for.

Anyway, I’ve rambled on long enough about 2011, so on to 2012!

Offensive Projections

Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
cairo 692 594 98 156 34 1 33 109 3 1 81 113 14 11 .263 .359 .493 .368 104 97 33
davenport 656 570 90 150 31 2 35 103 3 2 75 112 12 11 .263 .360 .509 .375 101 100 27
marcel 613 528 85 137 29 1 30 94 3 1 69 103 12 10 .259 .352 .489 .363 90 95 27
oliver 647 560 80 142 32 1 28 92 1 1 71 101 13 10 .254 .345 .464 .351 89 89 23
pecota 700 604 98 164 35 1 34 100 2 1 85 122 14 11 .271 .371 .501 .379 109 101 37
zips 655 562 88 148 32 1 32 109 2 1 76 112 13 11 .263 .359 .495 .368 98 97 31
average 661 567 94 149 32 1 32 101 2 1 76 110 13 11 .263 .357 .494 .367 99 97 31
2011 684 589 90 146 26 1 39 111 4 1 76 110 12 11 .248 .345 .494 .358 99 94 29
2011 AL 684 614 80 158 32 3 18 76 13 5 55 123 14 6 .258 .323 .408 .319 79 75

For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

I’ve included his 2011 and the league average line for his 2011 PA as frames of reference.  I haven’t adjusted league average for DNYS, so mentally adjust that upwards if you want to account for half of Teixeira’s games taking place in a farcical joke of a stadium.

The projections are all in the same general area.  They expect Teixeira to be a bit better in 2012.  It appears that PECOTA takes CAIRO and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make Teixeira look better.

CAIRO Percentiles Forecast

% PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
80% 727 624 113 177 41 2 41 126 5 0 95 107 11 15 .284 .407 .556 .410 130 116 56
65% 706 606 105 166 37 2 37 117 4 1 87 110 11 13 .274 .389 .525 .389 116 107 44
Baseline 692 594 98 156 34 1 33 109 3 1 81 113 14 11 .263 .370 .493 .368 104 97 33
35% 623 534 84 135 28 1 28 94 2 1 69 106 14 11 .253 .357 .461 .350 85 89 21
20% 554 475 70 115 22 0 22 79 1 2 58 99 14 11 .242 .343 .429 .333 68 80 12

I know batting average isn’t all that meaningful, but it would be nice to see Teixeira hit in the .275-.280 range.  But I wouldn’t bet on it.  That being said, I wouldn’t be suprised to see him hit that 65% forecast.
Base Running

Year gaR aaR haR oaR SBR BRR
2008 -0.2 0.2 -1.4 0.1 0 -1.3
2009 -4.7 -0.2 1.0 0.0 0.08 -3.8
2010 -1.5 -1.3 0.3 0.3 0 -2.2
2011 -1.2 -0.7 -1.5 0.0 0 -3.3
Projection -1.9 -0.7 -0.4 0.1 0.0 -2.9

gaR:base running runs above average on ground ball outs
aaR:base running runs above average on fly ball outs
haR:base running runs above average on hits
oaR:base running runs above average on wild pitches/passed balls
SBR: stolen base runs above average

I don’t really think of Teixeira as a bad base runner, but he appears to be below average.  We’ll have to see if he’ll be the one to carry on the torch of base ruining so ably handled by Jorge Posada.

Defense

Teixeira’s got a good defensive reputation and makes some good plays, but is probably overrated a bit by the average fan and writer.  I don’t think he has great range, but he’s got a good arm and makes some nice plays.  He projects as solidly above average in all of the various different defensive metrics I am using here.

Inn DRS UZR TZ ZR avg
1281 2 4 5 4 4

DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating

These numbers are based on a weighted average of the past five seasons, with some regression towards the mean.  For 1B, the metrics don’t include scooping or foul popups but it shouldn’t make much of a difference.  Maybe a run in either direction.

Value
So what’s Teixeira’s projected worth given the above?

Projection RAA Rep Pos RAR BRR Def WAR
cairo 24 22 -12 33 -2.9 4 3.4
marcel 19 19 -11 27 -2.9 4 2.9
oliver 14 20 -12 23 -2.9 4 2.4
pecota 28 22 -13 37 -2.9 4 3.9
zips 22 21 -12 31 -2.9 4 3.2
average 22 21 -12 31 -2.9 4 3.2
2011 20 21 -12 29 -3.3 3 2.9

Rep: Replacement level adjustment (22 runs per 700 PA pro-rated to projected PA)
Pos: Position-adjustment
RAR: Runs above replacement (Rep + Pos)
BRR: Base running runs (does not include SB)
Def: Projected runs saved defensively
WAR: Wins above replacement (RAR + BRR + Def) divided by 10

Teixeira’s being paid more as a 4 win player ($22.5M this year) than a 3 win player.  So let’s hope PECOTA is closer than the others.

I don’t know what I expect out of Teixeira in 2012.  To be honest, the more I think about it, the more concerned I am about the Yankees’ offense this year.  I can envision scenarios where the Yankees get less offense than expected out of just about every position but 2B and CF.  That makes Teixeira even more important. 

Hopefully he’s up to it.

--Posted at 6:57 am by SG / 53 Comments | - (0)



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