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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Alex Rodriguez

You can make the case that no player is going to be more important to the Yankees’ chance of winning the World Series this year than Alex Rodriguez.  His health and his performance could be the difference between a great season for the team and a bad one.

2011
Last year Rodriguez had a strong spring training, hitting .388/.444/.898 with six homers.  He looked healthy and carried that into the regular season, where he hit .321/.452/.696 through his first 17 games.  Unfortunately, it was not sustainable as he proceeded to hit .289/.343/.438 until July 7, at which point it was determined that he needed knee surgery and he was placed on the DL.  Rodriguez returned on August 21 and finished up the year by hitting a WOE-ful .191/.345/.353.

It was a disappointing season, particularly when compared to his 2010 and his 2011 projections entering the season.

projection PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SO AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BR/650
2010 595 522 141 29 2 30 59 3 98 .270 .341 .506 .360 88 96
avg 2011 proj 428 368 101 18 1 23 50 6 78 .274 .365 .511 .377 67 102
2011 428 373 103 21 0 16 47 5 80 .276 .362 .461 .360 61 92
delta 5 2 3 -1 -7 -3 -1 2 .002 -.003 -.050 -.016 -7 -10

By pro-rating his average projection to his actual 2011 PA we can see that the primary problem was the lower home run rate.  Most of his other stats were right around where they projected to be on a rate basis.

There was some good news in 2011.  Rodriguez had what might have been his best defensive season at 3B.  Zone rating had him at about 10 runs saved compared to average, UZR had him around 8, Plus/Minus had him around 9 and Totalzone had him around 7.  Rodriguez is more valuable if he can play a good 3B, although given the ongoing concerns with his health it may not be the best way to maximize his availability.

So what might be in store for 2012?  Funny you should ask…

Offensive Projections

Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
cairo 459 398 65 109 21 1 19 78 6 2 53 82 10 5 .273 .364 .474 .365 67 95 30
davenport 476 418 62 113 22 1 21 72 5 3 55 86 10 4 .270 .361 .478 .367 69 95 29
marcel 474 412 63 110 21 1 20 78 7 2 51 86 10 5 .267 .350 .468 .355 67 92 29
oliver 523 457 66 121 23 1 22 73 5 2 56 91 12 5 .265 .348 .464 .353 72 90 30
pecota 572 499 80 137 24 1 30 84 9 2 67 112 12 6 .275 .368 .507 .379 90 102 44
zips 466 405 61 107 20 1 21 81 7 2 51 89 11 5 .264 .350 .474 .357 66 93 29
average 495 429 70 117 22 1 22 78 6 2 55 91 11 5 .273 .359 .481 .362 73 96 33
2011 428 373 67 103 21 0 16 62 4 1 47 80 13 5 .276 .362 .461 .360 61 92 26
2011 AL 428 384 50 99 20 2 11 48 8 3 35 77 9 4 .258 .323 .408 .319 49 75

For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

I’ve included his 2011 and the league average line for his 2011 PA as frames of reference.  I haven’t adjusted league average for DNYS, so mentally adjust that upwards to account for the way it boosts offense.

Geez, PECOTA loves it some A-Rod, huh?  Most of the other projections are bunched together pretty closely and are probably more realistic as a baseline.  Even if that’s the case, they’re good projections on a rate basis.  The larger concern is going to be how often he can play.  I don’t think an Eric Chavez/Eduardo Nunez contingency plan will be much better than replacement level, so if you look at his average offensive projection pro-rated to different amounts of playing time you can get a feel for the impact.

100 PA: 7 BRAR
200 PA: 13 BRAR
300 PA: 20 BRAR
400 PA: 27 BRAR
500 PA: 33 BRAR
600 PA: 40 BRAR
700 PA: 46 BRAR

CAIRO Percentiles Forecast
I can’t stomach the fact that PECOTA changed it’s underlying components and assumptions in a bunch of ways to make Rodriguez look better than CAIRO, so here’s where I can fix that.

% PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
80% 597 517 95 155 33 2 31 113 11 1 78 95 10 10 .299 .420 .550 .415 109 119 61
65% 528 457 80 131 27 1 25 95 8 1 65 89 9 7 .286 .398 .512 .390 87 107 44
Baseline 459 398 65 109 21 1 19 78 6 2 53 82 10 5 .273 .375 .474 .365 67 95 30
35% 413 358 55 93 17 0 15 66 4 2 44 78 11 6 .260 .358 .437 .344 54 84 20
20% 367 318 46 79 13 0 12 56 3 3 37 73 11 6 .247 .341 .399 .322 41 73 12

I have a hunch that a healthy Rodriguez just might hit somewhere between that 65% and 80% forecast.  What I don’t have a hunch on is whether a healthy Alex Rodriguez even exists any more.  But WTH, it’s spring training.  Let’s go with it.  If Rodriguez hits that 80% forecast and gets 700 PA his line would look like this.

% PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
80% 700 606 112 182 39 3 36 133 13 1 92 112 12 11 .299 .420 .550 .415 128 119 71

That probably makes him the AL MVP.

Base Running

Year gaR aaR haR oaR SBR BRR
2008 0.6 0.1 1.2 0.2 -0.12 1.9
2009 2.7 -1.0 -1.7 0.0 1.15 1.1
2010 0.9 0.3 -1.6 0.0 -0.03 -0.5
2011 0.8 1.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.06 1.8
Projection 1.2 0.5 -0.8 0.0 0.2 1.0

Rodriguez doesn’t steal bases much any more, which is probably prudent since it reduces his injury risk.  He still runs the bases pretty well overall though.

gaR:base running runs above average on ground ball outs
aaR:base running runs above average on fly ball outs
haR:base running runs above average on hits
oaR:base running runs above average on wild pitches/passed balls
SBR: stolen base runs above average

Defense

pos Inn DRS UZR TZ ZR avg
3B 967 0 1 -1 1 0

DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating

Rodriguez’s great defensive season in 2012 doesn’t quite make up for the fact that he was below average for the prior four seasons, but it has improved his projection to about average.  For comparison’s sake, he projected at around -4 heading into 2011.

Value

Projection RAA Rep Pos RAR BRR Def WAR
cairo 14 14 2 30 0.8 0 3.1
marcel 12 15 2 29 0.8 0 3.0
oliver 12 16 2 30 0.8 0 3.1
pecota 24 18 2 44 0.8 0 4.5
zips 12 15 2 29 0.8 0 3.0
average 16 16 2 33 0.8 0 3.4
2011 11 13 2 26 1.9 9 3.7

Rep: Replacement level adjustment (22 runs per 700 PA pro-rated to projected PA)
Pos: Position-adjustment
RAR: Runs above replacement (Rep + Pos)
BRR: Base running runs (does not include SB)
Def: Projected runs saved defensively
WAR: Wins above replacement (RAR + BRR + Def) divided by 10

I realize I sound like a broken record, or should I say a corrupted MP3 file, at this point, but it really all comes down to how often Rodriguez can play this year.  He’s not what he used to be, but he still projects as one of the Yankees’ top three offensive players.  If the Raul Ibanez experiment doesn’t work, Rodriguez as the DH vs. RHP with Eric Chavez at 3B might be the best alignment the Yankees can use vs. RHP since Rodriguez has a pretty small projected platoon split (wOBA of .371 vs. LHP and .363 RHP).

I was contemplating what kind of contract Rodriguez would have gotten if he were a free agent this past offseason?  If I project Rodriguez out through the end of his contract in CAIRO, here’s how it looks.

edit: Updated Table

Year Age PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BRAR
2012 37 459 398 65 109 21 1 19 78 6 2 53 82 10 5 .274 .364 .475 .365 67 30
2013 38 436 378 54 101 19 1 16 65 6 2 47 80 10 5 .267 .349 .446 .347 59 23
2014 39 414 359 42 94 17 1 12 51 5 2 43 83 9 5 .263 .342 .417 .334 51 18
2015 40 394 341 33 88 15 1 10 40 4 2 39 85 9 4 .259 .334 .393 .321 45 14
2016 41 374 324 26 83 13 1 8 31 3 2 35 88 8 4 .256 .327 .372 .310 40 11
2017 42 355 308 20 78 11 1 6 25 3 2 32 91 8 4 .252 .320 .355 .301 35 8
  2432 2109 356 553 96 5 70 289 26 11 248 508 53 26 .262 .341 .413 .332 296 104

If you use that with an estimated defensive decline of 1.5 runs per season, here’s a look at Rodriguez’s projected WAR, Value (assuming $5M per win) and salary.

edit: Updated table

Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total
WAR 3.0 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 8.2
Value $15 $11 $8 $5 $2 $0 $41
Salary $29 $28 $25 $21 $20 $20 $143

If this is how the rest of his career plays out, a fair market deal is probably 6 years and $41M.  Is an overpayment of $102M bad?  It’s probably not as bad as a $36M overpayment and a lost draft pick for zero value, speaking hypothetically.  But I digress…

I’ve been negligent in fulfilling my pie chart duties of late, so here’s one that compares the average projected value for all of the remaining seasons to the average salary owed.

If Rodriguez’s career does play out the way this projection says it will, he’ll end up with a career line that looks like this.

edit: Updated table

PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG
10634 9199 1824 2775 495 29 629 1893 305 73 1166 1916 222 157 .302 .385 .567
2432 2109 356 553 96 5 70 289 26 11 248 508 53 26 .262 .341 .413
13066 11308 2180 3328 591 34 699 2182 331 84 1414 2424 275 183 .294 .377 .538

Here’s the same thing, but with two additional scenarios.  In the first one he hits his 65% forecast in 2012 and in the second one he hits his 80% forecast.

edit: Updated table.

2012_% PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG
Baseline 13066 11308 2180 3328 591 34 699 2182 331 84 1414 2424 275 183 .294 .377 .538
65% 13560 11732 2604 3469 622 37 724 2270 341 81 1503 2497 277 197 .296 .381 .540
80% 13826 11962 2834 3565 646 41 742 2325 351 77 1556 2515 271 209 .298 .385 .545

It’s looking less and less likely to me that Rodriguez will catch Hank Aaron or Barry Bonds.  Then again, now that he’s got the scarlet S on his chest I don’t know that passing them would be worth as much as it would have been if he were ‘clean.’

I have to admit that a small part of me still thinks we may see an MVP-caliber season out of Rodriguez this year followed up by a better than expected decline through the end of his contract.  It’s not likely, but it’s possible.

--Posted at 11:03 pm by SG / 42 Comments | - (0)



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