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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Looking Ahead to 2012 - Alex Rodriguez

You can make the case that no player is going to be more important to the Yankees’ chance of winning the World Series this year than Alex Rodriguez.  His health and his performance could be the difference between a great season for the team and a bad one.

2011
Last year Rodriguez had a strong spring training, hitting .388/.444/.898 with six homers.  He looked healthy and carried that into the regular season, where he hit .321/.452/.696 through his first 17 games.  Unfortunately, it was not sustainable as he proceeded to hit .289/.343/.438 until July 7, at which point it was determined that he needed knee surgery and he was placed on the DL.  Rodriguez returned on August 21 and finished up the year by hitting a WOE-ful .191/.345/.353.

It was a disappointing season, particularly when compared to his 2010 and his 2011 projections entering the season.

projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BR/650
2010	595	522	141	29	2	30	59	3	98	.270	.341	.506	.360	88	96
avg 2011 proj	428	368	101	18	1	23	50	6	78	.274	.365	.511	.377	67	102
2011	428	373	103	21	0	16	47	5	80	.276	.362	.461	.360	61	92
delta		5	2	3	-1	-7	-3	-1	2	.002	-.003	-.050	-.016	-7	-10

By pro-rating his average projection to his actual 2011 PA we can see that the primary problem was the lower home run rate.  Most of his other stats were right around where they projected to be on a rate basis.

There was some good news in 2011.  Rodriguez had what might have been his best defensive season at 3B.  Zone rating had him at about 10 runs saved compared to average, UZR had him around 8, Plus/Minus had him around 9 and Totalzone had him around 7.  Rodriguez is more valuable if he can play a good 3B, although given the ongoing concerns with his health it may not be the best way to maximize his availability.

So what might be in store for 2012?  Funny you should ask…

Offensive Projections

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
cairo	459	398	65	109	21	1	19	78	6	2	53	82	10	5	.273	.364	.474	.365	67	95	30
davenport	476	418	62	113	22	1	21	72	5	3	55	86	10	4	.270	.361	.478	.367	69	95	29
marcel	474	412	63	110	21	1	20	78	7	2	51	86	10	5	.267	.350	.468	.355	67	92	29
oliver	523	457	66	121	23	1	22	73	5	2	56	91	12	5	.265	.348	.464	.353	72	90	30
pecota	572	499	80	137	24	1	30	84	9	2	67	112	12	6	.275	.368	.507	.379	90	102	44
zips	466	405	61	107	20	1	21	81	7	2	51	89	11	5	.264	.350	.474	.357	66	93	29
average	495	429	70	117	22	1	22	78	6	2	55	91	11	5	.273	.359	.481	.362	73	96	33
2011	428	373	67	103	21	0	16	62	4	1	47	80	13	5	.276	.362	.461	.360	61	92	26
2011 AL	428	384	50	99	20	2	11	48	8	3	35	77	9	4	.258	.323	.408	.319	49	75

For more information about the projections above, you can read the first post in this series.

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

I’ve included his 2011 and the league average line for his 2011 PA as frames of reference.  I haven’t adjusted league average for DNYS, so mentally adjust that upwards to account for the way it boosts offense.

Geez, PECOTA loves it some A-Rod, huh?  Most of the other projections are bunched together pretty closely and are probably more realistic as a baseline.  Even if that’s the case, they’re good projections on a rate basis.  The larger concern is going to be how often he can play.  I don’t think an Eric Chavez/Eduardo Nunez contingency plan will be much better than replacement level, so if you look at his average offensive projection pro-rated to different amounts of playing time you can get a feel for the impact.

100 PA: 7 BRAR
200 PA: 13 BRAR
300 PA: 20 BRAR
400 PA: 27 BRAR
500 PA: 33 BRAR
600 PA: 40 BRAR
700 PA: 46 BRAR

CAIRO Percentiles Forecast
I can’t stomach the fact that PECOTA changed it’s underlying components and assumptions in a bunch of ways to make Rodriguez look better than CAIRO, so here’s where I can fix that.

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
80%	597	517	95	155	33	2	31	113	11	1	78	95	10	10	.299	.420	.550	.415	109	119	61
65%	528	457	80	131	27	1	25	95	8	1	65	89	9	7	.286	.398	.512	.390	87	107	44
Baseline	459	398	65	109	21	1	19	78	6	2	53	82	10	5	.273	.375	.474	.365	67	95	30
35%	413	358	55	93	17	0	15	66	4	2	44	78	11	6	.260	.358	.437	.344	54	84	20
20%	367	318	46	79	13	0	12	56	3	3	37	73	11	6	.247	.341	.399	.322	41	73	12

I have a hunch that a healthy Rodriguez just might hit somewhere between that 65% and 80% forecast.  What I don’t have a hunch on is whether a healthy Alex Rodriguez even exists any more.  But WTH, it’s spring training.  Let’s go with it.  If Rodriguez hits that 80% forecast and gets 700 PA his line would look like this.

%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	BR	BR/650	BRAR
80%	700	606	112	182	39	3	36	133	13	1	92	112	12	11	.299	.420	.550	.415	128	119	71

That probably makes him the AL MVP.

Base Running

Year	gaR	aaR	haR	oaR	SBR	BRR
2008	0.6	0.1	1.2	0.2	-0.12	1.9
2009	2.7	-1.0	-1.7	0.0	1.15	1.1
2010	0.9	0.3	-1.6	0.0	-0.03	-0.5
2011	0.8	1.5	-0.3	-0.2	-0.06	1.8
Projection	1.2	0.5	-0.8	0.0	0.2	1.0

Rodriguez doesn’t steal bases much any more, which is probably prudent since it reduces his injury risk.  He still runs the bases pretty well overall though.

gaR:base running runs above average on ground ball outs
aaR:base running runs above average on fly ball outs
haR:base running runs above average on hits
oaR:base running runs above average on wild pitches/passed balls
SBR: stolen base runs above average

Defense

pos		Inn	DRS	UZR	TZ	ZR	avg
3B		967	0	1	-1	1	0

DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating

Rodriguez’s great defensive season in 2012 doesn’t quite make up for the fact that he was below average for the prior four seasons, but it has improved his projection to about average.  For comparison’s sake, he projected at around -4 heading into 2011.

Value

Projection	RAA	Rep	Pos	RAR	BRR	Def	WAR
cairo	14	14	2	30	0.8	0	3.1
marcel	12	15	2	29	0.8	0	3.0
oliver	12	16	2	30	0.8	0	3.1
pecota	24	18	2	44	0.8	0	4.5
zips	12	15	2	29	0.8	0	3.0
average	16	16	2	33	0.8	0	3.4
2011	11	13	2	26	1.9	9	3.7

Rep: Replacement level adjustment (22 runs per 700 PA pro-rated to projected PA)
Pos: Position-adjustment
RAR: Runs above replacement (Rep + Pos)
BRR: Base running runs (does not include SB)
Def: Projected runs saved defensively
WAR: Wins above replacement (RAR + BRR + Def) divided by 10

I realize I sound like a broken record, or should I say a corrupted MP3 file, at this point, but it really all comes down to how often Rodriguez can play this year.  He’s not what he used to be, but he still projects as one of the Yankees’ top three offensive players.  If the Raul Ibanez experiment doesn’t work, Rodriguez as the DH vs. RHP with Eric Chavez at 3B might be the best alignment the Yankees can use vs. RHP since Rodriguez has a pretty small projected platoon split (wOBA of .371 vs. LHP and .363 RHP).

I was contemplating what kind of contract Rodriguez would have gotten if he were a free agent this past offseason?  If I project Rodriguez out through the end of his contract in CAIRO, here’s how it looks.

edit: Updated Table

Year	Age	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	BRAR
2012	37	459	398	65	109	21	1	19	78	6	2	53	82	10	5	.274	.364	.475	.365	67	30
2013	38	436	378	54	101	19	1	16	65	6	2	47	80	10	5	.267	.349	.446	.347	59	23
2014	39	414	359	42	94	17	1	12	51	5	2	43	83	9	5	.263	.342	.417	.334	51	18
2015	40	394	341	33	88	15	1	10	40	4	2	39	85	9	4	.259	.334	.393	.321	45	14
2016	41	374	324	26	83	13	1	8	31	3	2	35	88	8	4	.256	.327	.372	.310	40	11
2017	42	355	308	20	78	11	1	6	25	3	2	32	91	8	4	.252	.320	.355	.301	35	8
		2432	2109	356	553	96	5	70	289	26	11	248	508	53	26	.262	.341	.413	.332	296	104

If you use that with an estimated defensive decline of 1.5 runs per season, here’s a look at Rodriguez’s projected WAR, Value (assuming $5M per win) and salary.

edit: Updated table

Year	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	Total
WAR	3.0	2.2	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.1	8.2
Value	$15	$11	$8	$5	$2	$0	$41
Salary	$29	$28	$25	$21	$20	$20	$143

If this is how the rest of his career plays out, a fair market deal is probably 6 years and $41M.  Is an overpayment of $102M bad?  It’s probably not as bad as a $36M overpayment and a lost draft pick for zero value, speaking hypothetically.  But I digress…

I’ve been negligent in fulfilling my pie chart duties of late, so here’s one that compares the average projected value for all of the remaining seasons to the average salary owed.

If Rodriguez’s career does play out the way this projection says it will, he’ll end up with a career line that looks like this.

edit: Updated table

PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG
10634	9199	1824	2775	495	29	629	1893	305	73	1166	1916	222	157	.302	.385	.567
2432	2109	356	553	96	5	70	289	26	11	248	508	53	26	.262	.341	.413
13066	11308	2180	3328	591	34	699	2182	331	84	1414	2424	275	183	.294	.377	.538

Here’s the same thing, but with two additional scenarios.  In the first one he hits his 65% forecast in 2012 and in the second one he hits his 80% forecast.

edit: Updated table.

2012_%	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	GDP	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG
Baseline	13066	11308	2180	3328	591	34	699	2182	331	84	1414	2424	275	183	.294	.377	.538
65%	13560	11732	2604	3469	622	37	724	2270	341	81	1503	2497	277	197	.296	.381	.540
80%	13826	11962	2834	3565	646	41	742	2325	351	77	1556	2515	271	209	.298	.385	.545

It’s looking less and less likely to me that Rodriguez will catch Hank Aaron or Barry Bonds.  Then again, now that he’s got the scarlet S on his chest I don’t know that passing them would be worth as much as it would have been if he were ‘clean.’

I have to admit that a small part of me still thinks we may see an MVP-caliber season out of Rodriguez this year followed up by a better than expected decline through the end of his contract.  It’s not likely, but it’s possible.