Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Looking Ahead to 2011 - Pitching and Team Wrap-Up
This is my eighth(and last) post of the day. I think I need a nap.
Now that we have an idea of how the Yankee pitching staff will look, we can try and see what we might expect out of them this year. I usually do a few different depth charts, but given the fact that the season starts tomorrow I’m just going to post the one I used for the projections I ran, adjusting for the news that Luis Ayala will start the year on the roster.
cR: Projected runs allowed using CAIRO
mR: Projected runs allowed using Marcel
oR: Projected runs allowed using Oliver
pR: Projected runs allowed using PECOTA
zR: Projected runs allowed using ZiPS
aR: Average projected runs of all of the above
Figure a range of 30 runs in either direction to account for the error bars in the projections. I don’t know how much the defense is accounted for in the non-CAIRO projections. I know that for Oliver and Marcel it’s not a factor. I have the Yankee defense projected to be around 15 runs better than average, mostly thanks to the OF, so we can probably knock 10-15 runs of those runs allowed totals. The Yankee offense averages around 815 runs in the five projection systems I am looking at, which is pretty close to the 812 they averaged in the Diamond Mind simulations.
So if we wanted to estimate how good the Yankees are using the averages, figure:
815 runs scored
15 runs saved defensively
724 runs allowed by the pitchers
Pythagenpat winning percentage: .566
Pythagenpat W-L: 92-70
This is basically what the simulations said as well. So the Yankees should probably be the favorites for the wild card, and with a bit of good fortune, they should contend for the division right up until the end of the season.
That works for me.
If you want, you can use this thread to make your predictions for 2011. I’ll kick things off:
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Rangers
Wild card: Red Sox
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Giants
Wild card: Brewers
World Series: Braves over White Sox
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
AL ROY: Jeremy Hellickson
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL ROY: Aroldis Chapman
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