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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Thursday, March 7, 2013

Jon Heyman’s Off The Cuff 1B Suggestions

Not that NYY asked, but some off-the-cuff 1B suggestions: cuddyer, morneau, c pena, dobbs, kotchman, carlos lee, huff

Eh, let’s run through each of their CAIRO projections as 1B for the Yankees, with one additional name.

% PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BRAR
Dan Johnson 650 555 78 134 25 0 29 90 1 1 87 124 13 6 .241 .349 .444 .348 87 7
Morneau 650 576 77 154 34 1 25 92 2 1 60 110 17 5 .267 .337 .458 .344 87 7
Pena 650 541 76 114 24 1 31 89 3 3 94 184 8 9 .210 .333 .428 .335 82 2
Cuddyer 650 588 90 151 34 2 24 83 9 3 53 114 21 3 .257 .320 .445 .331 81 2
Huff 650 571 66 145 30 2 20 81 5 3 69 98 15 5 .254 .338 .420 .334 80 0
Lee 650 589 63 155 30 2 17 90 4 2 54 62 14 3 .264 .326 .408 .323 75 -4
Kotchman 650 589 55 149 24 1 16 73 3 1 49 77 17 9 .253 .318 .377 .310 68 -12
Dobbs 650 601 58 152 28 1 15 73 5 2 36 121 15 3 .253 .294 .377 .294 63 -16

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

Johnson’s got a total of 262 MLB PA over the last four seasons where he’s hit .184/.313/.373.  So his projection is based pretty heavily on his 1408 AAA PA over the last three years where he’s hit .279/.399/.521.  He’ll be 33, and I tend to think there’s a reason he hasn’t gotten more of a chance at regular big league playing time.  Even with that being said, I see no reason to think he’s any worse of an option than the people Heyman names, especially as a LHB who’ll have the platoon advantage more often than not. 

I guess we can do a Looking Ahead to 2013, Dan Johnson edition while we’re at it.  Here are his projections in all the systems I have access to.

Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB HBP SO GDP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
cairo 540 461 64 111 21 0 24 72 1 1 72 5 103 11 .241 .349 .444 .348 72 87 17
davenport 67 57 7 14 2 0 3 7 0 0 9 0 13 1 .246 .345 .439 .342 9 84 2
marcel 225 195 26 44 8 1 8 26 3 1 25 2 43 4 .226 .317 .400 .315 25 73 2
oliver 554 470 69 117 22 0 25 79 1 0 74 5 106 10 .249 .355 .455 .354 77 90 20
steamer 56 48 6 11 2 0 2 6 0 0 7 0 10 0 .229 .323 .396 .316 6 74 1
zips 530 455 59 107 17 1 20 65 1 0 65 5 4 100 .235 .334 .409 .329 54 67 0
average 329 281 39 67 12 0 14 43 1 0 42 3 47 21 .240 .342 .431 .340 41 80 7
2012 31 22 8 8 1 0 3 6 0 0 9 0 3 0 .364 .548 .818 .554 9 178 5

CAIRO, Davenport and Oliver are a lot more bullish on Johnson than the other systems, which see him as essentially replacement level.

And here are his percentile forecasts in CAIRO.

% PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BRAR
80% 648 553 87 146 30 1 35 100 3 0 97 112 9 8 .264 .388 .511 .393 107 27
65% 594 507 75 128 25 1 29 87 2 0 84 108 10 6 .253 .368 .477 .371 89 16
Baseline 540 461 64 111 21 0 24 75 1 1 72 103 11 5 .241 .349 .444 .348 72 6
35% 486 415 54 95 17 0 19 63 1 1 61 98 11 3 .230 .329 .410 .326 57 -2
20% 432 369 45 81 13 0 15 53 0 1 51 91 11 2 .219 .309 .376 .303 44 -9

We really don’t have enough data for Johnson’s baserunning and defense, but he has been a shade below average in both in MLB.

Here are his projected wOBA platoon splits.

% wOBA vs L wOBA vs R
80% .376 .400
65% .355 .377
Baseline .333 .354
35% .312 .331
20% .290 .308

What’s interesting to me is this.

% wOBA vs L wOBA vs R
80% .410 .392
65% .386 .369
Baseline .362 .346
35% .338 .324
20% .314 .301

Those are Mark Teixeira’s projected platoon splits.  CAIRO actually thinks Johnson is a better option vs. RHP than Teixeira, although the standard caveat about the limitations of projections applies.

I say give Johnson a shot.  The offensive difference between 200 PA of Johnson and 200 PA of Teixeira only projects to be a run or two in CAIRO, and the defensive difference projects similarly.  So maybe the Yankees will only lose a half win or so.

--Posted at 8:00 am by SG / 22 Comments | - (0)



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