Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Is it Better for the Yankees that Yu Darvish went to Texas instead of Toronto?
This seemed like a no-brainer to me, but since some people dissented, here’s what CAIRO says about the AL postseason odds depending on whether Yu Darvish wound up in Toronto or on Texas.
| Yu-Toronto | |||
| Team | Div | WC | PL |
| Rangers | 51.2% | 16.2% | 67.4% |
| Yankees | 49.3% | 18.1% | 67.3% |
| Tigers | 58.3% | 4.9% | 63.1% |
| Angels | 47.3% | 14.9% | 62.2% |
| Red Sox | 33.1% | 19.3% | 52.4% |
| Indians | 37.1% | 5.8% | 43.0% |
| Rays | 14.7% | 14.7% | 29.3% |
| Blue Jays | 3.0% | 3.3% | 6.3% |
| Royals | 2.7% | 0.5% | 3.2% |
| Mariners | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% |
| White Sox | 1.7% | 0.3% | 1.9% |
| Athletics | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% |
| Twins | 0.2% | - | 0.2% |
| Orioles | 0.0% | - | - |
| Yu-Texas | |||
| Team | Div | WC | PL |
| Rangers | 56.3% | 16.7% | 72.9% |
| Yankees | 51.7% | 17.4% | 69.1% |
| Tigers | 58.4% | 4.3% | 62.8% |
| Angels | 42.8% | 18.5% | 61.3% |
| Red Sox | 30.3% | 17.9% | 48.2% |
| Indians | 38.5% | 5.5% | 44.0% |
| Rays | 17.3% | 16.4% | 33.8% |
| Royals | 1.6% | 0.4% | 2.0% |
| White Sox | 1.5% | 0.2% | 1.8% |
| Blue Jays | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% |
| Mariners | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| Athletics | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| Orioles | 0.0% | - | - |
| Twins | 0.0% | - | - |
Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC: Percentage of times team won wild card (still using the one wild card playoff format)
PL: Percentage of times team qualified for the postseason (Div + WC)
Update: Corrected percentages
As yfinBrazil noted, the original numbers in this post were incorrect. The table has been updated.
Now we’re looking at a Yankee playoff percentage of 67.4% if Darvish was on Toronto, at which point they’d have to get past a .566 Texas team, which would have an overall probability of 34.1%. With Darvish on Texas, you’re looking at 69.1% playoff percentage and then having to beat a .577 Texas team, which has an overall probability of 34.6%.
Which is all just a fancy way of saying it doesn’t matter all that much.
Page 1 of 1 pages: