The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

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NY Post: Is Brett Gardner trade next up on Yankees’ radar?
(42 Comments - 12/9/2016 7:56:07 pm)

TGS: Aroldis Chapman returning to Yankees on 5-year, $86M deal
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USA Today: Red Sox acquire Chris Sale in blockbuster trade with White Sox
(57 Comments - 12/8/2016 7:38:49 am) Yankees, Holliday agree to one-year deal
(46 Comments - 12/7/2016 2:27:06 am) Yanks pursuing Chapman, talking to Jansen
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Fox Sports: Sources: Baseball’s 21-year run of labor peace could be in jeopardy
(75 Comments - 12/1/2016 3:10:24 am) Eovaldi among three pitchers released by Yanks
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Fox Sports: The Yankees are positioned to make major moves
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Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.

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Friday, July 26, 2013

IIs Alfonso Soriano Even an Upgrade?

Although it’s not actually official yet, all indications are that Alfonso Soriano will be a Yankee by this weekend.  Soriano left the Yankees as a shaky defensive second baseman with speed and power in the Alex Rodriguez trade and returns as a plus defensive LF who still has pop but doesn’t run all that much.  Soriano has never been much of a walker although his 3.9% BB/PA this season would be his lowest since 2002.  He still loves swinging at pitches in the left-handed hitters batters box, so that will be fun to watch.

In order to determine what Soriano adds to the team, you have to figure out who he’s replacing.  He’s an option for LF and DH, and that’s pretty much it.  So his playing time is going to come at the expense of Travis Hafner and Vernon Wells, most likely.  Here are their rest-of-season ZiPS projections, pro-rated to 250 PA.

Player PA avg obp slg wOBA BR
Alfonso Soriano 250 .251 .295 .469 .327 31
Vernon Wells 250 .249 .294 .427 .313 29
Travis Hafner 250 .238 .333 .427 .332 32

If you factor in defense and believe the defensive metrics, Soriano probably adds a run or two of value above Wells.  So in theory if Soriano is replacing Wells he adds three runs or so to the Yankees over 250 PA.  That may not seem like much, but that’s about a week’s worth of offense for this team.

It’s entirely possible that Hafner’s projection is way off and that his days as an effective player are over.  It’s also a fact that he adds no defensive value at all, whereas Wells can at least man the OF and 3B in an emergency.  But at least for now Hafner projects as the best hitter of this sordid cast of characters.  But once you factor in defense I’d say that Soriano is a more valuable player to have than Hafner as well.

My guess is for now we’ll see Soriano in LF, and a Wells/Hafner platoon at DH, with Wells also occasionally resting one of Brett Gardner and Ichiro!  What will be interesting to see is what happens if Curtis Granderson ever comes back.  It’s hard to see a spot for Hafner at that point and while his play since May 1 hasn’t deserved a spot, I am still holding out hope he can bust out of his slump.

My thought on this trade, and really on the way this team has done business over the past season is this.  It stinks.  They’ve blown so much money on players like Kevin Youkilis, Wells and now Soriano to build a team that’s got a lower chance at the postseason than half the teams in the league.  They’ve done it with an eye on getting below the salary cap in 2014 so they can get some savings, but I don’t think the savings they’ll get will even come close to making up the $40+M of essentially wasted money that they’ve spent on replacement level production and the ratings and attendance drop that this team has spearheaded.

I guess they should go ahead and try and make one last push for the postseason at this point because I can’t see any way this team is competitive in 2014.  But someone like Soriano isn’t really a push, he’s more like a slight nudge.  And if they ended up giving up a viable prospect for him I will really dislike this move.

--Posted at 7:54 am by SG / 75 Comments | - (0)

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