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Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.

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Monday, January 10, 2011

How Would Adding Rafael Soriano to the Yankee Bullpen Affect the Yankees’ Postseason Odds?

Following up on the prior thread, here’s a comparison of a Yankee team with and without Rafael Soriano along with their top two divisional rivals. 

AL East W Div WC PL sW sDiv sWC sPL
Red Sox 97.1 64.1% 18.5% 82.6% 96.7 58.1% 21.5% 79.6%
Yankees 89.6 22.7% 26.4% 49.1% 91.8 29.4% 27.9% 57.3%
Rays 85.7 11.8% 17.0% 28.8% 86.3 11.6% 21.5% 33.1%

W: Average projected win total in 10,000 simulations with current rosters
Div: Percentage of times team won the division
WC: Percentage of times team won the wild card
PL: Percentage of times team qualified for the postseason (Div + WC)

The s columns are the same thing as above assuming the Yankees added Rafael Soriano and that he made them about two wins better.

So the net effect is that two wins would improve the Yankees’ postseason chances by about 8% at this point in time.  That’s pretty significant, and higher than I’d have expected.

--Posted at 6:43 pm by SG / 19 Comments | - (0)

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