Monday, January 10, 2011
How Would Adding Rafael Soriano to the Yankee Bullpen Affect the Yankees’ Postseason Odds?
Following up on the prior thread, here’s a comparison of a Yankee team with and without Rafael Soriano along with their top two divisional rivals.
W: Average projected win total in 10,000 simulations with current rosters
Div: Percentage of times team won the division
WC: Percentage of times team won the wild card
PL: Percentage of times team qualified for the postseason (Div + WC)
The s columns are the same thing as above assuming the Yankees added Rafael Soriano and that he made them about two wins better.
So the net effect is that two wins would improve the Yankees’ postseason chances by about 8% at this point in time. That’s pretty significant, and higher than I’d have expected.
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