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Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.

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Tuesday, October 5, 2010

How Strong Are the 2010 Yankees Heading Into the Postseason? (Pitcher Edition)

We know the Yankee lineup is good enough to win the World Series, although whether they play well enough to do so is an unknown.  Is the pitching staff up to the task?

I don’t yet know what the postseason roster looks like, so this is subject to change and I will probably post a revision when we have the final roster and rotation. 

Here are the projections for the guys who should be in the mix for a spot.

Pitcher Role 2010 RA 2010 FIP Proj RA Proj FIP IP R
CC Sabathia SP1 3.48 3.55 3.48 3.39 14 5.4
Andy Pettitte SP2 3.63 3.96 4.35 4.01 5 2.4
Phil Hughes SP3 4.24 4.29 4.56 4.12 6 3.0
A.J. Burnett SP4 5.69 4.81 5.11 4.68 4 2.3
Mariano Rivera CL 2.10 2.85 2.43 2.77 3 0.8
David Robertson SU 3.54 3.54 3.97 3.39 3 1.3
Kerry Wood MR 3.33 4.09 3.99 3.95 3 1.3
Joba Chamberlain MR 4.58 2.94 4.70 3.94 3 1.6
Boone Logan MR 2.97 3.73 4.55 4.24 2 1.0
Javier Vazquez MR 5.49 5.57 4.20 3.96 1 0.5
Sergio Mitre MR 3.91 4.79 5.21 4.52 1 0.6
Ivan Nova MR 4.71 4.27 5.62 5.30 0 0.0

2010/Proj RA: 2010/projected run allowed per nine innings
2010/Proj FIP: 2010/projected Fielding Independent Pitching
IP: Estimated innings pitched in this series
R: Estimated runs allowed in this series (Projected RA divided by nine times IP)

I suppose you could see Chad Gaudin on there as well, in Vazquez or Nova’s stead, but it shouldn’t change anything.

If it was up to me (it’s not), I’d start CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes in Games 1 and 2.  CC obviously because he’s the Yankees’ best starter, and Hughes because he’s been so much better on the road.  Although we don’t want to make too many assumptions based on a single year of data, it’s worth noting that Twins pitcher gave up 64 HRs at home this year compared to 91 on the road, so it’s possible Hughes would also benefit if Target Field suppresses HRs.

Then you could have Andy Pettitte and Sabathia ready for Games 3 and 4 at home, with CC on short rest.  I’m not sure if they’d bring back Hughes in Game 5 if needed or go with Burnett, so I gave Burnett four innings.  If that were to happen, expect him to give up 20 runs rather than his projected 2.3.

This combination of innings and projected RA has the Yankees allowing about 20.3 runs.  Combined with their offensive projections that pegs them at around a 102 win team. 

Team Offense Defense Pitching Pythagenpat p162
Yankees 26.7 0.2 20.2 .628 102

Pythagenpat: Estimated win percentage based on projected offense/defense + pitching, adjusted for home field advantage
p162: Pythagenpat times 162 games (full season win equivalency)

Should that be good enough to beat the Twins?  I’ll tell you when we get the ALDS rosters for both teams.

--Posted at 10:54 am by SG / 58 Comments | - (0)

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