The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Yankees (69-62) @ Tigers (71-60),  Thursday, August 28, 2014, 1:08pm
(85 Comments - 8/28/2014 7:14:22 pm)

NYDN: Yankees sign Mets reject Chris Young to minor-league deal
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NYDN: Yankees GM Cashman reveals how the last-minute deal for Martin Prado went down
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Yankees.com: McCarthy battles, but Yankees’ win streak snapped
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Yankees (68-61) @ Tigers (70-59), Tuesday, August 26, 2014, 7:08pm
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Yankees.com: Yanks’ streak to five after makeup-game win in KC
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A Tale of Two Offenses
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Yankees (67-61) @ Royals (72-57), Monday, August 25, 2014, 7:10pm
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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Monday, January 16, 2012

How Should The Yankees Replace Jesus Montero at DH?

Upgrading the rotation came at the cost of losing the Yankees’ starting DH and top hitting prospect.  As a fan, I’m bummed about losing Montero because of the emotional tie I’ve built up as he’s progressed through the Yankee system.  I think the trade was fair and I understand why it was made, but it’s still a disappointment.  But press on, we must.

We really don’t know how good Montero is right now and how good he’ll be in the future.  Here were the ranges of his CAIRO projections as a Yankee DH heading into 2012.

% PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BRAR
80% 695 636 86 184 41 3 37 104 4 0 61 113 11 6 .289 .362 .536 .387 115 25
65% 637 583 75 162 35 2 31 91 3 0 52 109 12 5 .278 .344 .503 .365 95 13
Baseline 579 530 64 141 29 1 25 78 2 1 44 104 13 4 .267 .327 .470 .344 78 3
35% 521 477 54 122 23 1 21 66 1 1 37 99 13 2 .256 .309 .438 .323 62 -6
20% 463 424 45 104 19 0 16 55 1 1 30 92 13 1 .245 .292 .405 .301 48 -12

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

It wouldn’t have surprised me to see Montero up near that 80% forecast, but for now he doesn’t project that way in his baseline projection. 

Here’s how the range of projected wOBA’s would have looked broken down into platoon splits.

% wOBA vs L wOBA vs R
80% .402 .377
65% .380 .356
Baseline .358 .335
35% .335 .314
20% .313 .294

The in-house solution for DH is probably Andruw Jones.  Here’s how he projects over the same number of PA.

% PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BRAR
80% 695 599 94 147 35 3 37 103 12 1 97 155 13 9 .245 .364 .497 .376 109 19
65% 637 549 81 129 29 2 31 90 9 2 84 148 14 7 .234 .345 .464 .354 90 7
Baseline 579 499 70 112 24 1 26 77 7 2 72 141 15 5 .224 .327 .431 .332 72 -3
35% 521 449 59 96 20 1 21 66 5 3 61 132 15 4 .213 .308 .398 .311 57 -11
20% 463 399 49 81 15 0 16 55 4 3 51 122 15 2 .202 .290 .365 .289 43 -17

And here are his projected wOBA platoon splits.

% wOBA vs L wOBA vs R
80% .394 .369
65% .371 .348
Baseline .348 .327
35% .326 .305
20% .303 .284

The Yankees would lose about six runs over a full season if Jones replaced Montero at DH.  That’s sub-optimal, but it puts them ahead of where they were before making the trade for Michael Pineda and signing Hiroki Kuroda.  Maybe two or three wins ahead depending on how the innings for the rotation get allocated.  They’d probably project in the 95-96 win range if they do nothing else before spring training.

The Yankees do have options to upgrade DH.  Last year, the Yankees faced LHP in 29% of their plate appearances and the DH got 646 PA in total.  A similar split would mean 187 PA for DH vs. LHP.  The difference between Montero’s and Jones’s baseline wOBA projection vs. LHP would be worth a loss of about two runs over that number of PA.

That’s small enough that I think between Jones, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter (I know, but he’s better against LHP) they have enough for the right-handed portion of a platoon DH.

So what about the other, more important side?  Here are the options still in free agency.

Player Bats Projected wOBA Vs L Vs R RAJ
Carlos Pena L .365 .331 .379 21
Russell Branyan L .353 .324 .360 13
Wilson Betemit L .352 .323 .361 14
Raul Ibanez L .350 .324 .359 13
J.D. Drew L .345 .315 .355 11
Johnny Damon L .340 .324 .346 8
Hideki Matsui L .337 .323 .343 6
Kosuke Fukudome L .331 .305 .337 4
Eric Chavez L .295 .264 .308 -8

RAJ: Runs above Andruw Jones (vs RHP over 459 PA)

Assuming the left-handed half of the DH platoon would see 459 PA here are how some of the various options project as Yankees.  If you want to replace Montero’s baseline projection, you need eight RAJ, since you’ve lost two runs from the vs LHP part of DH.  Then you’re effectively where you were before trading Montero.

Carlos Pena is head and shoulders above the field, and if this number is accurate he’s probably worth something like $8-10M.  I don’t know if the Yankees are willing to spend that much, which means someone from the Branyan/Betemit/Ibanez/Drew group would be the next best option.  I’d assume Branyan would be the cheapest of the group, but if they want to spend more they should probably go after Betemit since he can play 3B (not well) in the likely scenario that Alex Rodriguez misses some time.  The nostalgia of bringing back Damon or Matsui would be kind of cool, but not the optimal way to proceed IMO. 
I think they should make a play for Pena first and foremost.  If not Betemit is my second choice.  Then I don’t really have a preference.

--Posted at 11:01 am by SG / 56 Comments | - (0)



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