Tuesday, January 15, 2013
How Much Value Have Full-time Second Baseman Accrued in their Age 30+ Seasons?
Now that I’ve figured out how to use saved reports with Baseball Reference’s Play Index to create more reports I’m having fun goofing around with things like the question in the title. So first, I ran a query for all the players who got at least 4000 PA through their age 29 seasons and played at least 75% of their games at second base. I got a list of 39 players.
Here’s a really basic chart comparing their WAR through age 29 and their WAR from age 30 on.
| Player | <29 WAR | 30+ WAR |
| Eddie Collins | 68.9 | 49.6 |
| Joe Morgan | 44.3 | 52.8 |
| Charlie Gehringer | 25.9 | 50.7 |
| Rod Carew | 39.8 | 36.8 |
| Lou Whitaker | 37.3 | 34.1 |
| Bobby Grich | 38.8 | 28.5 |
| Ryne Sandberg | 36 | 28.9 |
| Willie Randolph | 37.2 | 25.8 |
| Roberto Alomar | 40.9 | 22 |
| Billy Herman | 34.8 | 17.7 |
| Bobby Doerr | 31.2 | 16.2 |
| Nellie Fox | 30 | 16.3 |
| Tony Lazzeri | 34.7 | 11.5 |
| Johnny Evers | 28.8 | 16.4 |
| Larry Doyle | 32.5 | 10.1 |
| Chuck Knoblauch | 38.9 | 3.1 |
| Red Schoendienst | 17.1 | 21.9 |
| Jim Gilliam | 18.2 | 19.5 |
| Robinson Cano | 34.8 | 0 |
| Bill Mazeroski | 26.7 | 5.6 |
| Tony Cuccinello | 25 | 7 |
| Ray Durham | 16.2 | 14.4 |
| Luis Castillo | 20.9 | 5.9 |
| Dave Cash | 23.2 | 1.2 |
| Steve Sax | 18.3 | 4.6 |
| Delino DeShields | 17.5 | 4.5 |
| Tony Taylor | 9.2 | 10.8 |
| Carlos Baerga | 18.3 | -1.1 |
| Glenn Hubbard | 15 | 2.1 |
| Felix Millan | 11.5 | 4.4 |
| Juan Samuel | 12.2 | 2.3 |
| Hughie Critz | 9.8 | 3.9 |
| Rennie Stennett | 12.5 | 0.1 |
| Jerry Remy | 12.1 | 0.5 |
| Bucky Harris | 11.7 | 0.3 |
| Rickie Weeks | 12 | 0 |
| Otto Knabe | 9.8 | -1.7 |
| Bobby Richardson | 5.8 | 0.7 |
| Bill Wambsganss | 1.3 | -0.8 |
If we focus on the top 20 in terms of WAR, here’s how that looks.
| Player | <29 WAR | 30+ WAR |
| Eddie Collins | 68.9 | 49.6 |
| Joe Morgan | 44.3 | 52.8 |
| Roberto Alomar | 40.9 | 22 |
| Rod Carew | 39.8 | 36.8 |
| Chuck Knoblauch | 38.9 | 3.1 |
| Bobby Grich | 38.8 | 28.5 |
| Lou Whitaker | 37.3 | 34.1 |
| Willie Randolph | 37.2 | 25.8 |
| Ryne Sandberg | 36 | 28.9 |
| Billy Herman | 34.8 | 17.7 |
| Robinson Cano | 34.8 | 0 |
| Tony Lazzeri | 34.7 | 11.5 |
| Larry Doyle | 32.5 | 10.1 |
| Bobby Doerr | 31.2 | 16.2 |
| Nellie Fox | 30 | 16.3 |
| Johnny Evers | 28.8 | 16.4 |
| Bill Mazeroski | 26.7 | 5.6 |
| Charlie Gehringer | 25.9 | 50.7 |
| Tony Cuccinello | 25 | 7 |
| Average | 36 | 23 |
On average, players provided about 37% less WAR from age 30 on. If Robinson Cano matches a similar pattern, he’d be worth something like 22 WAR over the remainder of his career.
How much is that worth? I don’t know, but I’m pretty sure it’s not worth 10 years and $250M.
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