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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Monday, November 15, 2010

How Good Might the 2011 Yankees Be on November 15, 2010?

So now that we have projections to look at, what do they tell us?

First, let’s consider the primary starters who played in 2010 and are still under contract for 2011.

Here are their performances in 2010:

 Player  Pos PA  H 2B  3B HR  SB CS  BB SO  AVG OBP  SLG wOBA  BRAR def  WAR
 Robinson Cano 2B  696  200  41  3  29  3   2  57  77  .319  .381   .534  .392  51  -3  4.7 
 Brett Gardner LF  564  132  20  7  5  44   8  79  101  .277  .383   .379  .347  25  15  4.1 
 Nick Swisher RF  632  163  33  3  29  1   2  58  139  .288  .359   .511  .373  35  2  3.7 
 Alex Rodriguez 3B  595  141  29  2  30  4   3  59  98  .270  .341   .506  .359  38  -4  3.3 
 Curtis Granderson  CF 524  115  17  7   24  12  2  53  116  .247   .324  .468  .340  27  5   3.2 
 Mark Teixeira 1B  712  154  36  0  33  0   1  93  122  .256  .365   .481  .367  28  -1  2.7 
 Jorge Posada C  451  95  23  1  18  3   1  59  99  .248  .357   .454  .355  19  -8  1.1 
 Francisco Cervelli  C 309  72  11  3   0  1  1  33  42  .271   .359  .335  .320  8  -1   0.7 
 Total  4483                232  4   23.6 

And here’s their CAIRO projected performance in 2011:

 Player    Pos    PA    H    2B    3B    HR    SB    CS    BB    SO    avg    obp    slg    wOBA    BRAR    Def    WAR
  Cano, Robinson   2B 681  192  45  3   26  4  4  44  78  .306   .355  .511  .372  43  0   4.2 
  Gardner, Brett  LF 504  116  17  6   5  38  7  60  91  .270   .358  .372  .329  14  11   2.5 
  Swisher, Nick   RF 626  139  32  2   26  2  2  77  135  .260   .354  .470  .357  25  0   2.5 
  Rodriguez, Alex   3B 594  143  27  1   32  11  3  69  105  .281   .372  .526  .384  41  -3   3.8 
  Granderson, Curtis   CF 638  143  26  9   25  14  4  68  124  .252   .335  .462  .346  29  3   3.2 
  Teixeira, Mark   1B 690  162  38  1   33  2  1  87  115  .276   .377  .515  .384  33  3   3.6 
  Posada, Jorge   DH 412  95  21  1   15  2  1  47  93  .267   .355  .460  .355  17  0   1.7 
  Cervelli, Francisco   C 292  65  12  1   3  2  2  24  47  .255   .326  .347  .303  5  -1   0.4 
   4437                207  13  21.9 

BRAR: Linear weights batting runs above replacement level (park and position-adjusted)
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
Def: Projected runs saved defensively compared to average
WAR: Wins above replacement level (BRAR plus Def divided by 10)

The whole replacement level thing gets a little fuzzy here since Posada’s being treated as primarily a catcher in 2010 but as a DH in 2011.  So if we ignore position and just look at the seven players, we see that 2010’s collective put up a wOBA of .361 and an OBP of .360 in 4483 PA, and that the 2011 version of those same seven players would project to put up a wOBA of .359 and an OBP of .356.  The 2011 version would be about 15 runs worse over a full season, which is a non-trivial, but not a massive down grade.

You may not be aware of this since it’s gone strangely unreported by the media, but Derek Jeter is a free agent.  Shocking, huh?  Apparently, he has yet to resign with the Yankees and no one is talking about it.  This has the potential to be MAJOR.

 Player    Pos    PA    H    2B    3B    HR    SB    CS    BB    SO    avg    obp    slg    wOBA    BRAR    Def    WAR
 2010 Derek Jeter  SS 738  179  30  3   10  18  5  63  106  .270   .340  .370  .319  22  -14   0.8 
 2011 CAIRO Jeter   SS 699  181  29  2   13  15  5  63  96  .290   .360  .406  .342  32  -7   2.4 

Jeter had a bad year by his standards last year, but his offense was fine for a shortstop, somewhere around 22 runs better than replacement level.  The bigger issue with Jeter was how you assessed his defense.  UZR thought he was slightly below average, around -5.  However, a combination of UZR, zone rating and John DeWan’s plus/minus were much harsher, putting Jeter around -14 defensively and making him effectively only about one win better than replacement level.

I have no idea which is closer to the truth, so even though my spreadsheet says Jeter was less than one win better than replacement level last year, I’m going to say that that was not necessarily true.

Either way, CAIRO expects Jeter to bounce back a bit in 2011 on a rate basis, but it also expects him to play a bit less.  Overall it likes his chance for a reasonable rebound.

But what if?  What if the Yankee decide that Jeter is asking for too much and decide to let him walk?  It won’t happen, but if it did, here’s who they have on hand to replace him.

 Player    Pos    PA    H    2B    3B    HR    SB    CS    BB    SO    avg    obp    slg    wOBA    BRAR    Def    WAR
  Nunez, Eduardo   SS 528  127  22  2   7  19  7  26  68  .257   .296  .350  .286  6  -1   0.6 
  Pena, Ramiro  SS  324  72  11  2  3  7   3  20  57  .244  .290   .324  .274  1  3  0.4 

So yeah, replacing Jeter with Nunez or Pena looks like a two win down grade in CAIRO. 

I suppose we could look at possible free agent SS but there’s really no sense.  Jeter will be a Yankee in 2011 and we just have to hope CAIRO knows what it’s doing.

So we’ve effectively covered everything except DH and catcher.  Last year’s Yankee DH’s combined for a line of .256/.338/.440, which isn’t really all that good for a position that has no defensive value.  CAIRO thinks Jorge Posada will exceed that line, but betting on a 40 year old who’s caught over 1600 games in his career to hit well and stay healthy is probably risky.  The Yankees will probably use DH to rest their older regulars a bit as well, so if Posada’s reasonably healthy they should get decent production out of DH.

That leaves catcher.  If Posada’s not catching, then it means some combination of Francisco Cervelli, Jesus Montero and Austin Romine may be, unless the Yankees surprise us by going after someone like John Buck. 

 Player    Pos    PA    H    2B    3B    HR    SB    CS    BB    SO    avg    obp    slg    wOBA    BRAR    Def    WAR
  Montero, Jesus   C 508  122  29  2   18  1  1  41  85  .261   .326  .446  .337  24  0   2.4 
  Cervelli, Francisco   C 292  65  12  1   3  2  2  24  47  .255   .326  .347  .303  5  -1   0.4 
  Romine, Austin   C 502  112  25  1   10  4  2  26  94  .238   .281  .362  .283  6  0   0.6 

Montero’s almost certainly the best offensive player of the bunch, and he should probably be the favorite to being the year as the starting catcher, but his defense may end up being bad enough that he can’t stick there. 
Cervelli’s not a horrible catcher, and he profiles as a pretty good backup, but he’s also not someone you want to see starting half the games.

CAIRO doesn’t think Romine’s ready, but who knows with young players?

On the position player side, the Yankees’ only real questions are shortstop and catcher.  There isn’t a free agent SS available even comparable to Jeter, so unless they make a bold trade he’ll be back in 2011.  John Buck is sort of interesting on the catching side, but if you think Montero is going to be the catcher of the future, you probably don’t commit to him for as long as some other potential suitors might.  I guess they can shore up the bench with a RH outfielder too, or bring back Marcus Thames.

So at least as of right now, I get the sense we’re not going to see anything particularly interesting happening on the position player side with this team heading into 2011.

Come on Cliff Lee I guess…

--Posted at 1:43 pm by SG / 36 Comments | - (0)



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