Wednesday, December 12, 2012
How Does Signing Youkilis Impact the AL East?
I re-ran my projected standings with Kevin Youkilis getting 500 PA split among 3B, 1B and DH and here’s how it impacted the AL East projected standings.
Before:
| TM | W | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% |
| Rays | 86.0 | 25.8% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 44.4% |
| Blue Jays | 86.0 | 25.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 42.7% |
| Yankees | 85.0 | 23.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 39.3% |
| Red Sox | 84.0 | 20.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 36.2% |
| Orioles | 73.0 | 5.8% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 13.9% |
After:
| TM | W | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% |
| Blue Jays | 86.5 | 25.3% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 42.9% |
| Yankees | 86.4 | 25.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 42.9% |
| Rays | 86.0 | 24.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 42.1% |
| Red Sox | 82.6 | 17.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 33.2% |
| Orioles | 74.1 | 7.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 15.8% |
Difference:
| TM | W | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% |
| Blue Jays | 0.5 | -0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| Yankees | 1.4 | 0.1% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% |
| Rays | 0.0 | 0.3% | -1.4% | -2.3% | -3.6% |
| Red Sox | -1.4 | -0.8% | 0.0% | -3.0% | -3.0% |
| Orioles | 1.1 | 0.6% | -0.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% |
This includes all the other moves that were made since I ran these as well as some adjustments in playing time so that also affects this, but basically adding Youkilis if he can get 500 PA is worth about a win and a half or so. Is that worth $12M? It depends on how much you value a 5% increase in qualifying for the postseason I guess.
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