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NY Post: Yankees to get Marlins’ Eovaldi for Prado in five-player swap
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ESPN New York: Yankees not targeting Max Scherzer
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USA Today: The Yankees are making A-Rod a DH, and he could actually help them there
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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Tuesday, October 15, 2013

How Bad are the 2014 Yankees on October 15, 2013

One of the hardest things about doing my CAIRO projections is finagling the numbers to make the Yankees look better than they are.  And that was hard when the Yankees were actually good.  Now that they are not so good, it makes it even harder.

Anyway, I finally figured it was time to put some empirical evidence together to see what the Yankees look like right now.  So I ran my first set of 2014 CAIRO projections, which I’m sure have bugs and will change as we move further into the offseason.

I’ll warn you now, it’s not pretty at all.

The assumptions here are that Alex Rodriguez remains suspended for the entire 2014 season and the Yankees don’t sign anyone or trade for anyone.  Basically, this is what the Yankees have under contract right now for 2014.  First up, the position players.

Lineup Player Pos PA avg/obp/slg wOBA Outs BR BRAR Def WAR
1 Brett Gardner CF 575 .278/.355/.408 .328 371 74 28 3.5
2 Derek Jeter SS 400 .278/.336/.383 .311 266 44 15 -7 0.8
3 Mark Teixeira 1B 600 .249/.339/.504 .343 396 88 27 7 3.3
4 Alfonso Soriano LF 600 .262/.313/.485 .323 412 80 23 -2 2.2
5 Eduardo Nunez 3B 500 .262/.310/.377 .293 345 53 13 -8 0.5
6 Ichiro Suzuki RF 600 .281/.315/.366 .294 411 62 5 7 1.2
7 Vernon Wells DH 500 .241/.290/.428 .295 355 56 2 0 0.2
8 Francisco Cervelli C 400 .241/.321/.354 .295 272 40 14 0 1.4
9 David Adams 2B 500 .238/.311/.362 .291 344 49 9 0 0.9
Starters 4675 .260/.321/.412 .310 3172 547 136 3 13.9
Bench Player Pos PA avg/obp/slg wOBA Outs BR BRAR Def WAR
Chris Stewart C 275 .228/.297/.322 .271 193 24 5 0 0.5
Jayson Nix IF 350 .232/.295/.362 .280 247 34 7 0 0.7
Zoilo Almonte OF 300 .247/.300/.385 .290 210 30 3 0 0.3
Ramon Flores OF 300 .226/.304/.322 .278 209 25 -2 0 -0.2
Austin Romine C 100 .239/.292/.355 .277 71 9 0 0 0.0
Bench 1325 .234/.299/.350 .280 929 123 14 0 1.4
Team Total 6000 .254/.316/.398 .303 4102 670 150 3 15.3

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

I haven’t done the defensive projections for 2014 yet so these are 2013 projections.  Adjust them down a bit since there’s no one young enough on the Yankees to be improving defensively.

If you think that’s bad, get a load of the pitching staff.

Role Player IP H R HR BB K RA ERA FIP WAR
SP1 CC Sabathia 200 199 103 29 58 175 4.61 4.13 4.12 3.9
SP2 Ivan Nova 185 189 95 25 62 147 4.63 4.33 4.34 3.6
SP3 Michael Pineda 165 149 97 26 64 141 5.18 4.70 4.61 2.2
SP4 David Phelps 160 156 87 24 66 143 4.86 4.62 4.59 2.7
SP5 Vidal Nuno 150 157 80 24 46 106 5.15 4.37 4.65 2.0
SP6 David Huff 65 75 46 12 22 44 6.01 5.46 5.15 0.3
SP7 Brett Marshall 50 60 43 9 29 33 7.13 6.44 5.93 -0.4
SP8 Manny Banuelos 40 45 28 6 23 30 6.14 5.44 5.24 0.1
SP9 Jose Ramirez 35 41 32 8 22 26 7.83 6.71 6.37 -0.6
SP10 Nik Turley 20 22 16 3 14 14 7.03 6.10 5.95 -0.1
Starters 1070 1093 627 166 405 858 5.27 4.72 4.67 13.7
Role Player IP H R HR BB K RA ERA FIP WAR
CL David Robertson 70 55 22 7 25 83 2.94 2.83 2.98 1.7
SU Shawn Kelley 70 61 34 11 28 77 4.52 4.01 4.09 0.5
SU Preston Claiborne 70 70 46 9 41 53 5.95 4.98 4.99 -0.6
MR Cesar Cabral 50 59 38 5 34 47 5.95 5.64 4.78 -0.4
MR Dellin Betances 50 51 41 6 41 46 6.67 6.04 5.32 -0.8
MR Chase Whitley 40 41 23 5 18 29 5.09 4.62 4.55 0.0
MR Mark Montgomery 30 27 15 3 20 30 4.78 4.39 4.52 0.1
MR Matt Daley 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.52 3.27 3.22 0.0
LR Chase Whitley 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.09 4.62 4.55 0.0
Relievers 380 365 220 45 207 365 5.22 4.55 4.39 0.4
Total 1450 1459 847 211 612 1224 5.26 4.67 4.60 14.1

WAR: Wins above replacement level (using RA)
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching

Now obviously the error bars around some of these projections are huge.  Maybe CC Sabathia makes the adjustments to get closer to his past numbers and maybe converting Michael Pineda’s rehab numbers to an MLE and using it as part of his projections for 2014 ignores that rehab games are approached differently than competitive games and that he’ll be stronger as he moves further away from his injury.  Maybe Ivan Nova scrapping his slider will let him pitch more like he did over the second half of 2013 than his projection.

That’s an awful lot of maybes.

The bottom line is this.  If these projections and playing time assumptions are reasonably close, and they may not be, this is what the overall picture looks like.

RS 670
Def 3
RA 847
wpct .392
p162 63

The Yankees need to add 27 wins to get to 90.  I can’t see them doing it without going past their self-imposed payroll limit of $189M, and I’m not sure the market is there to do it even if they decide to.

Maybe they can lobby Bud Selig to add five more wild cards.  Then they can pretend they’re still contenders.

--Posted at 9:03 am by SG / 61 Comments | - (0)



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