The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Giants (88-74) @ Royals (89-73), World Series Game 7, Wednesday, October 29, 2014, 8:00pm
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NJ.com: Eric Hinske doesn’t want to be Yankees batting coach
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TGS: Hunter Strickland’s explosive October
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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Hardball Talk: The Yankees are interested in Mike Napoli

Mike Napoli, the Texas #Rangers free-agent catcher, is drawing interest from the New York #Yankees

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) November 12, 2012

For a team that values catcher defense, I’m a bit surprised they’d be considering Napoli.  He’s not a full-time catcher, having averaged 74 games at catcher since 2009.  His defensive projection for SB/CS is -3 but according to the catcher framing work I’ve seen he’s just a shade below average, maybe one run a year or so.  But you have to assume that there’s a reason he’s not catching more than half his team’s games and it’s probably a safe bet that wouldn’t change as he moves into his mid 30s.

Napoli had a down year in 2012, but he projects well for 2013.  Here are his CAIRO percentile forecasts as a Yankee.

% PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BRAR
80% 473 410 75 115 24 2 32 77 6 0 64 106 7 9 .281 .400 .583 .423 89 48
65% 433 376 64 101 20 1 26 67 4 1 55 103 8 7 .268 .376 .540 .395 73 36
Baseline 394 342 55 87 16 1 22 57 3 1 47 98 9 6 .254 .353 .497 .368 59 24
35% 355 308 46 74 13 0 17 48 2 2 39 93 9 4 .240 .329 .455 .340 46 15
20% 315 274 38 62 10 0 14 39 1 2 32 86 10 3 .227 .306 .412 .312 34 7

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

BRAR are as a catcher.  As a DH with the same projections it looks more like 28 for his 80% forecast, 17 for his 65% forecast, 8 for his baseline, 0 for his 35% and -7 for his 20%.  So we probably need to split the difference.  I don’t see him playing much 1B with Mark Teixeira around, but 500 PA between catcher and DH seems reasonable.  How much is that worth?  Probably something like 23 runs on offense and -4 runs on defense, about two wins.  A three-year deal with the typical 0.5 win decline per year puts his estimated value at 4.5 wins, which is probably worth around $27-30M.  So I’d be fine with something like 3 yrs/$27M. 

The Yankees will need to figure out who they want as the co-starting catcher to really make it work though, and I don’t think it can be Chris Stewart or Eli Whiteside.

--Posted at 9:03 am by SG / 29 Comments | - (0)



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