The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Rangers (39-59) @ Yankees (50-47), Monday, July 21, 2014, 7:05pm
(44 Comments - 7/22/2014 12:17:43 am)

NY Times: A Bloop Leads to a Blooper, Lifting the Yankees to a Sweep
(19 Comments - 7/21/2014 5:55:59 pm)

Reds (51-46) @ Yankees (49-47), Sunday, July 20, 2014, 1:05pm
(45 Comments - 7/21/2014 9:57:06 am)

Reds (51-45) @ Yankees (48-47), Saturday, July 19, 2014, 1:05pm
(50 Comments - 7/20/2014 12:23:43 pm)

Reds (51-44) @ Yankees (47-47), Friday, July 18, 2014, 7:05 pm
(18 Comments - 7/19/2014 11:20:00 am)

NJ.com: Yankees Midseason Report: Much needs to happen to save the season
(16 Comments - 7/18/2014 5:38:15 pm)

Yankees.com: Jeter goes out in style to fitting All-Star farewell
(78 Comments - 7/18/2014 9:36:46 am)

N.L. All-Stars @ A.L. All-Stars, Tuesday, July 15, 2014, 8:00 pm
(43 Comments - 7/16/2014 9:43:52 am)

USA Today: Derek Jeter remains stoic in final All-Star appearance
(13 Comments - 7/15/2014 4:48:52 pm)

Yankees.com: Whitley, Yanks suffer rain-shortened loss to O’s
(20 Comments - 7/15/2014 12:45:39 am)



Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Derek Jeter’s 2010 Actual vs. Projected Through August 30

Since Mel Hall mentioned this in an earlier thread and it was something I was planning to look at anyway, here’s how Derek Jeter’s 2010 year to date performance compares to his average projection heading into the season, pro-rated to his actual YTD playing time.

Projection PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR BB HBP SO SB CS DP AVG OBP SLG
average 602 539 164 124 26 2 12 53 7 84 15 4 18 .304 .372 .426
ytd 602 545 146 109 24 3 10 48 6 84 14 4 19 .268 .332 .378
difference -6 18 15 2 -1 2 5 1 0 1 0 -1

Difference is just the projected stat minus the actual stat.  So if you look at the hits column, Jeter has had 18 fewer hits than projected, 15 of them singles.  He’s also hit two fewer HRs and doubles than projected, and walked five fewer times.  K rate is spot on and SB/CS is right there.  He’s hit into one more DP than projected.

If we think of Jeter’s average projection as a baseline, we can look at his projection in terms of a binomial distribution of each component stat. 

StDev PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR BB HBP SO SB CS DP AVG OBP SLG
+2 Std 602 539 189 129 36 5 19 68 12 66 22 0 10 .351 .447 .541
+1 Std 602 539 176 126 31 3 15 61 10 75 18 2 14 .327 .410 .483
Baseline 602 539 164 124 26 2 12 53 7 84 15 4 18 .304 .372 .426
-1 Std 602 539 151 121 21 1 8 46 4 93 11 7 22 .280 .334 .368
-2 Std 602 539 138 117 16 0 5 39 2 103 7 9 27 .256 .296 .314

This is how I figure out my CAIRO percentile projections, although I also include a function to allocate playing time based on how a player’s projection looks (ie, a player who’s exceeding his projection will probably play more, a player who’s underperforming will play less).  In this case since we’re looking at Jeter’s YTD performance, I’m holding the playing time constant.

As you can see, Jeter’s performance is within one standard deviation of his projection, albeit on the negative side.

So the question is probably whether or not those 18 missing hits and three missing extra base hits are the product of a decline in bat speed or just a representation of the fluctuation that can happen in a baseball season.  Probably a bit of both, although perhaps the decline in bat speed is overstated somewhat by his actual results so far.

--Posted at 3:13 pm by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)



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