The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 



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Player

 Current Projected
Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King


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Monday, December 3, 2012

CBS Sports:Yankees in the mix for outfielder Nate Schierholtz

The Yankees are interested in adding outfielder Nate Schierholtz, who was non-tendered recently by the Phillies, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.

The 28-year-old outfielder split time between the Giants and Phillies last season, hitting .257/.321/.407 in 269 plate appearances. The Yankees will have competition, as nine teams called Schierholtz once he hit the market.

Schierholtz would be half of a platoon most likely since he hasn’t hit righties much over the last few seasons.

Split G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
vs RHP (2010-2012) 284 690 625 169 36 8 18 65 13 10 55 105 .270 .334 .440 .774
vs LHP (2010-2012) 118 193 178 41 7 1 0 14 1 1 9 40 .230 .271 .281 .552

Regular readers of this blog should know that you can’t just assume that a player’s recent or career platoon splits are what they will do going forward.  We have a pair of pretty good examples in Paul O’Neill and for Curtis Granderson(at least for one season).  So you have to factor in everything a player’s done and then regress his platoon splits appropriately as discussed in this post at The Book blog.

Here’s how Schierholtz would project as a Yankee in CAIRO for 2013.

% PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BRAR
80% 407 370 47 107 23 5 15 49 9 2 36 63 3 5 .289 .364 .496 .375 64 17
65% 373 339 40 93 19 3 12 41 7 3 30 62 3 4 .274 .341 .456 .348 51 8
Baseline 339 308 33 80 15 2 9 35 5 3 25 60 4 3 .260 .318 .415 .321 39 0
35% 305 277 27 68 12 1 7 29 3 4 20 58 5 2 .245 .295 .374 .293 29 -6
20% 271 247 22 57 9 1 5 23 2 4 16 54 5 1 .231 .272 .334 .266 20 -11

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

If you break that projection down into his regressed platoon splits it looks like this.

split pa ab h 2b 3b hr bb so hbp gdp avg obp slg woba
vs. LHP 71 65 16 3 1 2 4 15 1 1 .244 .297 .391 .302
Vs. RHP 268 243 64 13 2 8 22 45 2 4 .264 .335 .422 .326
Overall 339 308 80 15 2 9 25 60 3 4 .260 .327 .415 .321

He’d essentially project as a league average hitter against RHP, which is below average for a RF.  You don’t necessarily need a better than average player at every position on the diamond, but CAIRO thinks he’s a worse option in RF than Chris Dickerson who they already have and won’t cost them anything.

% PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BRAR
80% 407 353 65 101 24 4 12 40 24 2 55 94 4 5 .285 .397 .479 .389 69 22
65% 373 324 56 88 20 3 10 34 19 3 47 91 5 4 .270 .372 .439 .361 55 12
Baseline 339 294 48 75 16 2 7 28 16 4 40 88 6 3 .256 .348 .399 .333 43 4
35% 305 265 40 64 13 1 5 23 12 4 33 83 7 2 .241 .323 .359 .306 32 -3
20% 271 235 33 53 10 0 4 18 9 4 27 78 7 1 .226 .299 .319 .278 23 -8
split pa ab h 2b 3b hr bb so hbp gdp avg obp slg woba
vs. LHP 44 37 9 3 0 1 5 11 1 1 .237 .362 .369 .308
Vs. RHP 238 208 54 11 1 6 28 62 1 4 .259 .359 .404 .338
Overall 282 245 63 13 2 6 33 73 2 5 .256 .359 .399 .333

It’s certainly possible CAIRO is underrating Schierholtz and or overrating Dickerson.  And for whatever it’s worth Schierholtz’s defensive numbers in RF are pretty good, equivalent to about 5 runs above average per season in DRS and 9 runs per season in UZR.  Schierholtz is also two years younger than Dickerson.  But Dickerson is easier to type.

I guess I’d be okay with Shierholtz as long as the Yankees do what they need to do anyway and add a good righty bat that can backup all three OF positions.

 

--Posted at 9:22 am by SG / 6 Comments | - (0)


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