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Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.

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Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Can The Yankees Offense Regress Their Way to a Better Second Half?

Last night’s loss to the Rays was the Yankees’ 81st game of the season.  If you double what their offense has done this year and compare it to last season, you can get a sense of how much the Yankees’ big offseason spending spree has helped improve the offense.

2014 times 2 33.1 162 6144 652 1402 248 30 138 116 32 492 1128 .254 .318 .384 .703 95 120
2013 31.9 162 6024 650 1321 247 24 144 115 31 466 1202 .243 .308 .377 .685 88 121


Obviously, the Yankees had hoped to get a lot more offense out of Alfonso Soriano, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran than they have to this point.  They may have wishcast better than they’ve gotten from Jacoby Ellsbury, but if they did they were idiots because he’s basically doing what he was projected to do.  Some might say that it’s not worth $153M for seven years, but I digress.

Anyway, despite the disappointing play of Soriano, McCann and Beltran I’m not sure the Yankee offense has been particularly unfortunate.  But you can’t just double what the team has done so far and assume that’s what they’ll do the rest of the way.  So, let’s do a quick and dirty estimate using the Steamer rest of the season forecasts available on Fangraphs.

If the Yankees get the exact same playing time over the second half of the season as they did over the first half of the season,

Player PA ytd_wOBA ros_wOBA Improve?
Brett Gardner 342 .348 .324 No
Jacoby Ellsbury 342 .334 .332 No
Yangervis Solarte 270 .333 .306 No
Brian McCann 285 .286 .340 Yes
Mark Teixeira 253 .357 .351 No
Derek Jeter 315 .297 .314 Yes
Kelly Johnson 180 .309 .319 Yes
Ichiro Suzuki 174 .304 .300 No
JR Murphy 65 .299 .287 No
Scott Sizemore 16 .327 .289 No
Zoilo Almonte 19 .206 .312 Yes
Brian Roberts 265 .299 .303 Yes
Austin Romine 1 .000 .286 Yes
Dean Anna 25 .227 .314 Yes
Brendan Ryan 38 .295 .266 No
Francisco Cervelli 25 .266 .288 Yes
Carlos Beltran 230 .296 .352 Yes
Alfonso Soriano 227 .273 .303 Yes
Total 3072 .312 .321 Yes
Runs 325 349 Yes

ytd_wOBA: Weighted-on base average for 2014 through June 30
ros_wOBA Steamer’s projected wOBA over the rest of the season

A lot has been made of Yankee injuries, but I actually feel they’ve been a bit fortunate on the position player side.  Teixiera has missed some non-trivial time, but I expected that.  Jeter has been healthier than I expected, and of course this is the season that Brian Roberts decides to impersonate Cal Ripken by never missing a game while impersonating Enrique Wilson’s offensive value.

Obviously we don’t know how playing time will shape out over the rest of the season, and there are a few players who have overachieved to this point so even if the Yankees who have not played as well as expected start to better it doesn’t appear that they are going to be all that much better on offense.  I mean, 20 runs over half a season is certainly a difference, but is it enough of a difference?  The Yankees have been outscored by 33 runs this season, so even if they pitch/defend the same as they have over the first half that makes them a slightly below average team over the second half.

It’s hard to see a trade or series of trades that will make this team particularly good.  I suppose it’s possible they bring up Robert Refsnyder, who has an MLE of .287/.341/.436 in 328 PA split between AA Trenton and AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre this season and is likely a better offensive player than Brian Roberts right now.  They could also give some of the playing time that was going to Alfonso Soriano to Zoilo Almonte, although he’s really only likely to be good from the left-side and Joe Girardi doesn’t seem to prefer him playing over Ichiro.  But it’s hard to see them improving their offense much with what they have in-house.

If they add a second top-flight starting pitcher they could be dangerous in a short series if they can get there, I guess.

In conclusion, yes, the Yankees offense should be better than they have been.  But the difference is not that big.  They just aren’t that good of a team.

--Posted at 9:40 am by SG / 15 Comments | - (0)

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