Thursday, February 10, 2011
CAIRO v0.6 and Still Too Early 2011 MLB Projected Standings
I’ve updated the 2011 CAIRO projections to version 0.6 and have uploaded them to the site. They can be downloaded at the link below:
I’ve basically just updated rosters again and fixed a few issues. I’ve also added a projected standings page.
I probably will not do another update until about a week before the season starts, unless there’s some reason to.
Speaking of projected standings, it’s been about six weeks since I posted my extremely early projected standings for 2011 so here’s an update.
I suppose this is where I should tell you that it’s still too early to treat these as gospel and we still have position battles and rosters to finalize, as well as playing time allocation and injuries to deal with, but that doesn’t seem to prevent some people from taking them seriously and insulting my mother anyway, so I won’t.
I used the depth charts from MLB Depth Charts.com as of February 8, but I also included some playing time from the benches as well as some of the pitchers who aren’t necessarily expected to make their teams out of spring training but who will likely be needed at some point.
| Date | 2/8/2011 | |||||||||
| Iterations | 10,000 | |||||||||
| American League | ||||||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Red Sox | 96.2 | 65.8 | 831 | 687 | 45.6% | 17.6% | 63.2% | 7.2 | 13 | -57 |
| Yankees | 92.1 | 69.9 | 821 | 726 | 28.8% | 19.4% | 48.2% | -2.9 | -38 | 33 |
| Rays | 87.9 | 74.1 | 737 | 663 | 17.3% | 14.6% | 31.9% | -8.1 | -65 | 14 |
| Blue Jays | 77.2 | 84.8 | 709 | 738 | 4.2% | 5.0% | 9.2% | -7.8 | -46 | 10 |
| Orioles | 76.9 | 85.1 | 739 | 788 | 4.2% | 4.8% | 9.0% | 10.9 | 126 | 3 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| White Sox | 84.3 | 77.7 | 718 | 704 | 36.1% | 5.7% | 41.8% | -3.7 | -25 | -41 |
| Twins | 82.3 | 79.7 | 744 | 727 | 26.9% | 5.0% | 31.9% | -11.7 | -37 | 56 |
| Tigers | 81.9 | 80.1 | 714 | 697 | 27.7% | 5.5% | 33.2% | 0.9 | -37 | -46 |
| Indians | 70.6 | 91.4 | 711 | 804 | 6.2% | 1.4% | 7.6% | 1.6 | 65 | 52 |
| Royals | 66.2 | 95.8 | 658 | 806 | 3.1% | 0.7% | 3.8% | -0.8 | -18 | -39 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Rangers | 92.7 | 69.3 | 728 | 626 | 57.6% | 6.6% | 64.2% | 2.7 | -59 | -61 |
| Athletics | 85.8 | 76.2 | 667 | 620 | 28.9% | 8.8% | 37.7% | 4.8 | 4 | -6 |
| Angels | 77.1 | 84.9 | 647 | 678 | 10.1% | 3.6% | 13.7% | -2.9 | -34 | -24 |
| Mariners | 70.4 | 91.6 | 606 | 705 | 3.4% | 1.3% | 4.7% | 9.4 | 93 | 7 |
| National League | ||||||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Phillies | 93.7 | 68.3 | 735 | 617 | 48.4% | 10.4% | 58.8% | -3.3 | -37 | -23 |
| Braves | 87.2 | 74.8 | 735 | 665 | 26.1% | 10.3% | 36.4% | -3.8 | -3 | 36 |
| Mets | 80.1 | 81.9 | 667 | 678 | 10.3% | 6.0% | 16.3% | 1.1 | 11 | 26 |
| Marlins | 79.3 | 82.7 | 668 | 679 | 9.5% | 5.3% | 14.8% | -0.7 | -51 | -38 |
| Nationals | 74.9 | 87.1 | 643 | 698 | 5.7% | 3.3% | 9.0% | 5.9 | -12 | -44 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Reds | 87.2 | 74.8 | 746 | 689 | 31.8% | 10.0% | 41.8% | -3.8 | -44 | 4 |
| Cardinals | 86.6 | 75.4 | 744 | 689 | 31.0% | 9.9% | 40.9% | 0.6 | 8 | 48 |
| Brewers | 86.6 | 75.4 | 746 | 688 | 26.5% | 9.4% | 35.9% | 9.6 | -4 | -116 |
| Cubs | 75.8 | 86.2 | 722 | 768 | 7.3% | 3.8% | 11.1% | 0.8 | 37 | 1 |
| Astros | 66.9 | 95.1 | 604 | 740 | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.5% | -9.1 | -7 | 11 |
| Pirates | 66.6 | 95.4 | 663 | 796 | 1.9% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 9.6 | 76 | -70 |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | PL | W+/- | RS+/- | RA+/- |
| Giants | 86.9 | 75.1 | 698 | 649 | 32.1% | 8.2% | 40.2% | -5.1 | 1 | 66 |
| Rockies | 83.4 | 78.6 | 758 | 736 | 23.3% | 7.0% | 30.2% | 0.4 | -12 | 19 |
| Padres | 83.1 | 78.9 | 648 | 638 | 21.6% | 6.5% | 28.1% | -6.9 | -17 | 57 |
| Dodgers | 82.2 | 79.8 | 673 | 665 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 26.4% | 2.2 | 6 | -27 |
| Diamondbacks | 69.5 | 92.5 | 672 | 775 | 3.3% | 1.2% | 4.5% | 4.5 | -41 | -61 |
W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
Here’s a comparison of this set of projections compared to the last ones:
| TM | 28-Dec | 28-Dec | 28-Dec | 28-Dec | 9-Feb | 9-Feb | 9-Feb | 9-Feb | Diff | Diff | Diff | Diff |
| W | Div | WC | PL | W | Div | WC | PL | W | Div | WC | PL | |
| Angels | 78 | 15.5% | 3.2% | 18.7% | 77 | 10.1% | 3.6% | 13.7% | -1 | -5.4% | 0.4% | -5.0% |
| Astros | 66 | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 67 | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 1 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Athletics | 82 | 26.1% | 4.3% | 30.4% | 86 | 28.9% | 8.8% | 37.7% | 4 | 2.8% | 4.5% | 7.3% |
| Blue Jays | 74 | 2.6% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 77 | 4.2% | 5.0% | 9.2% | 3 | 1.6% | -0.8% | 0.8% |
| Braves | 89 | 26.6% | 13.3% | 39.9% | 87 | 26.1% | 10.3% | 36.4% | -1 | -0.5% | -3.0% | -3.5% |
| Brewers | 87 | 27.9% | 8.9% | 36.7% | 87 | 26.5% | 9.4% | 35.9% | -1 | -1.4% | 0.5% | -0.8% |
| Cardinals | 90 | 35.0% | 12.0% | 47.0% | 87 | 31.0% | 9.9% | 40.9% | -4 | -4.0% | -2.1% | -6.1% |
| Cubs | 79 | 10.5% | 6.3% | 16.8% | 76 | 7.3% | 3.8% | 11.1% | -4 | -3.2% | -2.5% | -5.7% |
| Diamondbacks | 74 | 6.4% | 1.9% | 8.3% | 70 | 3.3% | 1.2% | 4.5% | -4 | -3.1% | -0.7% | -3.8% |
| Dodgers | 83 | 20.3% | 7.2% | 27.5% | 82 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 26.4% | -1 | -0.6% | -0.5% | -1.1% |
| Giants | 84 | 24.1% | 6.6% | 30.6% | 87 | 32.1% | 8.2% | 40.2% | 3 | 8.0% | 1.6% | 9.6% |
| Indians | 74 | 8.2% | 2.7% | 10.8% | 71 | 6.2% | 1.4% | 7.6% | -3 | -2.0% | -1.3% | -3.2% |
| Mariners | 72 | 8.4% | 2.5% | 10.9% | 70 | 3.4% | 1.3% | 4.7% | -2 | -5.0% | -1.2% | -6.2% |
| Marlins | 77 | 8.7% | 5.0% | 13.7% | 79 | 9.5% | 5.3% | 14.8% | 2 | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| Mets | 77 | 7.1% | 4.5% | 11.6% | 80 | 10.3% | 6.0% | 16.3% | 4 | 3.2% | 1.5% | 4.7% |
| Nationals | 72 | 3.2% | 2.0% | 5.2% | 75 | 5.7% | 3.3% | 9.0% | 3 | 2.5% | 1.3% | 3.8% |
| Orioles | 70 | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 77 | 4.2% | 4.8% | 9.0% | 7 | 2.4% | 1.9% | 4.3% |
| Padres | 81 | 17.7% | 5.0% | 22.6% | 83 | 21.6% | 6.5% | 28.1% | 2 | 3.9% | 1.5% | 5.5% |
| Phillies | 96 | 54.5% | 11.0% | 65.5% | 94 | 48.4% | 10.4% | 58.8% | -2 | -6.1% | -0.6% | -6.7% |
| Pirates | 68 | 2.1% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 67 | 1.9% | 1.1% | 3.0% | -1 | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| Rangers | 89 | 50.1% | 4.5% | 54.6% | 93 | 57.6% | 6.6% | 64.2% | 4 | 7.5% | 2.1% | 9.6% |
| Rays | 87 | 17.9% | 18.7% | 36.6% | 88 | 17.3% | 14.6% | 31.9% | 1 | -0.6% | -4.1% | -4.7% |
| Red Sox | 98 | 54.6% | 15.6% | 70.2% | 96 | 45.6% | 17.6% | 63.2% | -2 | -9.0% | 2.0% | -7.0% |
| Reds | 86 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 31.7% | 87 | 31.8% | 10.0% | 41.8% | 2 | 8.3% | 1.8% | 10.1% |
| Rockies | 86 | 31.7% | 5.9% | 37.6% | 83 | 23.3% | 7.0% | 30.2% | -3 | -8.4% | 1.1% | -7.4% |
| Royals | 67 | 2.8% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 66 | 3.1% | 0.7% | 3.8% | -1 | 0.3% | -0.4% | -0.1% |
| Tigers | 84 | 27.5% | 4.6% | 32.0% | 82 | 27.7% | 5.5% | 33.2% | -2 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% |
| Twins | 86 | 33.3% | 6.2% | 39.5% | 82 | 26.9% | 5.0% | 31.9% | -3 | -6.4% | -1.2% | -7.6% |
| White Sox | 85 | 28.4% | 6.2% | 34.5% | 84 | 36.1% | 5.7% | 41.8% | 0 | 7.7% | -0.5% | 7.3% |
| Yankees | 89 | 23.2% | 21.7% | 44.9% | 92 | 28.8% | 19.4% | 48.2% | 3 | 5.6% | -2.3% | 3.3% |
The Diff columns are just the December 28 results subtraced from the February 9 results. Positive means a team’s odds have improved, negative means they’ve decreased.
In the AL East, the Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays and Yankees all improved, with Baltimore making the biggest gains. The Red Sox still project as the best team in baseball, but the gap has shrunk a bit.
Aside from the Rafael Soriano signing, the Yankees haven’t made any major moves, but by adding Andruw Jones, Freddy Garcia and Ronnie Belliard they’ve improved their depth. Of course, it’s possible Belliard’s 2010 shows he’s at the end of the line and will not be very good, so if they are instead back to using Ramiro Pena and Eduardo Nunez more frequently that may hurt them some.
CAIRO still likes the White Sox in the Central, with the Twins and Tigers nipping on their heels.
The Rangers look like a strong favorite in the AL West, although if they trade Michael Young that may hurt their depth a bit. I only gave Brandon Webb about 10 starts, so how he does could have an impact on them.
Oakland hasn’t made any major moves, but they have improved by about four wins in this set of projections, mostly by shoring up their bullpen a bit. The Angels and Mariners don’t really look like contenders at this point.
In the National League, the Phillies still look like the best team. The Braves look like a solid second place team in the East, with the Mets, Marlins and Nationals a bit worse and separated by maybe five games in total. For the Mets I’ve assumed that Chris Young and Johan Santana will split the #1 spot in the rotation at 50% each, but I have no idea how likely that is.
The top of the NL Central has bunched up a bit, with the Reds now slight favorites, primarily due to adding Edgar Renteria and Fred Lewis. Really though, there’s a three-way tie at the top, with only 0.6 wins separating Cincinnati, Milwaukee and St. Louis. The Cubs appear to have a stranglehold on fourth place. I think there are two other teams in the Central as well.
The Giants still look to be on top of the NL West, with the Rockies, Padres and Dodgers a few games behind them but very close to each other. I don’t really have anything to say about the Diamondbacks, so insert your own commentary here if you wish.
Even though rosters are a bit more settled than they were six weeks ago, it’s still too early to read too much into these. So take them with the appropriate amount of skepticism.
Page 1 of 1 pages: