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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Thursday, February 10, 2011

CAIRO v0.6 and Still Too Early 2011 MLB Projected Standings

I’ve updated the 2011 CAIRO projections to version 0.6 and have uploaded them to the site.  They can be downloaded at the link below:

Cairo_2011_v0.6.zip

I’ve basically just updated rosters again and fixed a few issues.  I’ve also added a projected standings page.

I probably will not do another update until about a week before the season starts, unless there’s some reason to.

Speaking of projected standings, it’s been about six weeks since I posted my extremely early projected standings for 2011 so here’s an update.

I suppose this is where I should tell you that it’s still too early to treat these as gospel and we still have position battles and rosters to finalize, as well as playing time allocation and injuries to deal with, but that doesn’t seem to prevent some people from taking them seriously and insulting my mother anyway, so I won’t.

I used the depth charts from MLB Depth Charts.com as of February 8, but I also included some playing time from the benches as well as some of the pitchers who aren’t necessarily expected to make their teams out of spring training but who will likely be needed at some point.

Date 2/8/2011
Iterations 10,000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 96.2 65.8 831 687 45.6% 17.6% 63.2% 7.2 13 -57
Yankees 92.1 69.9 821 726 28.8% 19.4% 48.2% -2.9 -38 33
Rays 87.9 74.1 737 663 17.3% 14.6% 31.9% -8.1 -65 14
Blue Jays 77.2 84.8 709 738 4.2% 5.0% 9.2% -7.8 -46 10
Orioles 76.9 85.1 739 788 4.2% 4.8% 9.0% 10.9 126 3
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
White Sox 84.3 77.7 718 704 36.1% 5.7% 41.8% -3.7 -25 -41
Twins 82.3 79.7 744 727 26.9% 5.0% 31.9% -11.7 -37 56
Tigers 81.9 80.1 714 697 27.7% 5.5% 33.2% 0.9 -37 -46
Indians 70.6 91.4 711 804 6.2% 1.4% 7.6% 1.6 65 52
Royals 66.2 95.8 658 806 3.1% 0.7% 3.8% -0.8 -18 -39
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 92.7 69.3 728 626 57.6% 6.6% 64.2% 2.7 -59 -61
Athletics 85.8 76.2 667 620 28.9% 8.8% 37.7% 4.8 4 -6
Angels 77.1 84.9 647 678 10.1% 3.6% 13.7% -2.9 -34 -24
Mariners 70.4 91.6 606 705 3.4% 1.3% 4.7% 9.4 93 7
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 93.7 68.3 735 617 48.4% 10.4% 58.8% -3.3 -37 -23
Braves 87.2 74.8 735 665 26.1% 10.3% 36.4% -3.8 -3 36
Mets 80.1 81.9 667 678 10.3% 6.0% 16.3% 1.1 11 26
Marlins 79.3 82.7 668 679 9.5% 5.3% 14.8% -0.7 -51 -38
Nationals 74.9 87.1 643 698 5.7% 3.3% 9.0% 5.9 -12 -44
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 87.2 74.8 746 689 31.8% 10.0% 41.8% -3.8 -44 4
Cardinals 86.6 75.4 744 689 31.0% 9.9% 40.9% 0.6 8 48
Brewers 86.6 75.4 746 688 26.5% 9.4% 35.9% 9.6 -4 -116
Cubs 75.8 86.2 722 768 7.3% 3.8% 11.1% 0.8 37 1
Astros 66.9 95.1 604 740 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% -9.1 -7 11
Pirates 66.6 95.4 663 796 1.9% 1.1% 3.0% 9.6 76 -70
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 86.9 75.1 698 649 32.1% 8.2% 40.2% -5.1 1 66
Rockies 83.4 78.6 758 736 23.3% 7.0% 30.2% 0.4 -12 19
Padres 83.1 78.9 648 638 21.6% 6.5% 28.1% -6.9 -17 57
Dodgers 82.2 79.8 673 665 19.7% 6.7% 26.4% 2.2 6 -27
Diamondbacks 69.5 92.5 672 775 3.3% 1.2% 4.5% 4.5 -41 -61


W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here’s a comparison of this set of projections compared to the last ones:

TM 28-Dec 28-Dec 28-Dec 28-Dec 9-Feb 9-Feb 9-Feb 9-Feb Diff Diff Diff Diff
W Div WC PL W Div WC PL W Div WC PL
Angels 78 15.5% 3.2% 18.7% 77 10.1% 3.6% 13.7% -1 -5.4% 0.4% -5.0%
Astros 66 1.1% 1.0% 2.1% 67 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% 1 0.4% 0.0% 0.4%
Athletics 82 26.1% 4.3% 30.4% 86 28.9% 8.8% 37.7% 4 2.8% 4.5% 7.3%
Blue Jays 74 2.6% 5.8% 8.4% 77 4.2% 5.0% 9.2% 3 1.6% -0.8% 0.8%
Braves 89 26.6% 13.3% 39.9% 87 26.1% 10.3% 36.4% -1 -0.5% -3.0% -3.5%
Brewers 87 27.9% 8.9% 36.7% 87 26.5% 9.4% 35.9% -1 -1.4% 0.5% -0.8%
Cardinals 90 35.0% 12.0% 47.0% 87 31.0% 9.9% 40.9% -4 -4.0% -2.1% -6.1%
Cubs 79 10.5% 6.3% 16.8% 76 7.3% 3.8% 11.1% -4 -3.2% -2.5% -5.7%
Diamondbacks 74 6.4% 1.9% 8.3% 70 3.3% 1.2% 4.5% -4 -3.1% -0.7% -3.8%
Dodgers 83 20.3% 7.2% 27.5% 82 19.7% 6.7% 26.4% -1 -0.6% -0.5% -1.1%
Giants 84 24.1% 6.6% 30.6% 87 32.1% 8.2% 40.2% 3 8.0% 1.6% 9.6%
Indians 74 8.2% 2.7% 10.8% 71 6.2% 1.4% 7.6% -3 -2.0% -1.3% -3.2%
Mariners 72 8.4% 2.5% 10.9% 70 3.4% 1.3% 4.7% -2 -5.0% -1.2% -6.2%
Marlins 77 8.7% 5.0% 13.7% 79 9.5% 5.3% 14.8% 2 0.8% 0.3% 1.1%
Mets 77 7.1% 4.5% 11.6% 80 10.3% 6.0% 16.3% 4 3.2% 1.5% 4.7%
Nationals 72 3.2% 2.0% 5.2% 75 5.7% 3.3% 9.0% 3 2.5% 1.3% 3.8%
Orioles 70 1.8% 2.9% 4.7% 77 4.2% 4.8% 9.0% 7 2.4% 1.9% 4.3%
Padres 81 17.7% 5.0% 22.6% 83 21.6% 6.5% 28.1% 2 3.9% 1.5% 5.5%
Phillies 96 54.5% 11.0% 65.5% 94 48.4% 10.4% 58.8% -2 -6.1% -0.6% -6.7%
Pirates 68 2.1% 1.2% 3.3% 67 1.9% 1.1% 3.0% -1 -0.2% -0.1% -0.3%
Rangers 89 50.1% 4.5% 54.6% 93 57.6% 6.6% 64.2% 4 7.5% 2.1% 9.6%
Rays 87 17.9% 18.7% 36.6% 88 17.3% 14.6% 31.9% 1 -0.6% -4.1% -4.7%
Red Sox 98 54.6% 15.6% 70.2% 96 45.6% 17.6% 63.2% -2 -9.0% 2.0% -7.0%
Reds 86 23.5% 8.2% 31.7% 87 31.8% 10.0% 41.8% 2 8.3% 1.8% 10.1%
Rockies 86 31.7% 5.9% 37.6% 83 23.3% 7.0% 30.2% -3 -8.4% 1.1% -7.4%
Royals 67 2.8% 1.1% 3.9% 66 3.1% 0.7% 3.8% -1 0.3% -0.4% -0.1%
Tigers 84 27.5% 4.6% 32.0% 82 27.7% 5.5% 33.2% -2 0.2% 0.9% 1.2%
Twins 86 33.3% 6.2% 39.5% 82 26.9% 5.0% 31.9% -3 -6.4% -1.2% -7.6%
White Sox 85 28.4% 6.2% 34.5% 84 36.1% 5.7% 41.8% 0 7.7% -0.5% 7.3%
Yankees 89 23.2% 21.7% 44.9% 92 28.8% 19.4% 48.2% 3 5.6% -2.3% 3.3%

The Diff columns are just the December 28 results subtraced from the February 9 results.  Positive means a team’s odds have improved, negative means they’ve decreased.

In the AL East, the Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays and Yankees all improved, with Baltimore making the biggest gains.  The Red Sox still project as the best team in baseball, but the gap has shrunk a bit. 

Aside from the Rafael Soriano signing, the Yankees haven’t made any major moves, but by adding Andruw Jones, Freddy Garcia and Ronnie Belliard they’ve improved their depth.  Of course, it’s possible Belliard’s 2010 shows he’s at the end of the line and will not be very good, so if they are instead back to using Ramiro Pena and Eduardo Nunez more frequently that may hurt them some.

CAIRO still likes the White Sox in the Central, with the Twins and Tigers nipping on their heels. 

The Rangers look like a strong favorite in the AL West, although if they trade Michael Young that may hurt their depth a bit.  I only gave Brandon Webb about 10 starts, so how he does could have an impact on them.

Oakland hasn’t made any major moves, but they have improved by about four wins in this set of projections, mostly by shoring up their bullpen a bit.  The Angels and Mariners don’t really look like contenders at this point.

In the National League, the Phillies still look like the best team.  The Braves look like a solid second place team in the East, with the Mets, Marlins and Nationals a bit worse and separated by maybe five games in total.  For the Mets I’ve assumed that Chris Young and Johan Santana will split the #1 spot in the rotation at 50% each, but I have no idea how likely that is.

The top of the NL Central has bunched up a bit, with the Reds now slight favorites, primarily due to adding Edgar Renteria and Fred Lewis.  Really though, there’s a three-way tie at the top, with only 0.6 wins separating Cincinnati, Milwaukee and St. Louis.  The Cubs appear to have a stranglehold on fourth place.  I think there are two other teams in the Central as well.

The Giants still look to be on top of the NL West, with the Rockies, Padres and Dodgers a few games behind them but very close to each other.  I don’t really have anything to say about the Diamondbacks, so insert your own commentary here if you wish.

Even though rosters are a bit more settled than they were six weeks ago, it’s still too early to read too much into these.  So take them with the appropriate amount of skepticism.

--Posted at 7:15 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)



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