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NY Post: Who’s on the bubble as Yankees need to cut 10 more
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CBS Sports: Yankees Notebook: Rotation Decisions Loom, Right Field Battle Rages
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NJ.com: Will Yankees’ Jordan Montgomery make roster? | Kuty mailbag
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NY Times: Didi Gregorius of Yankees Is Expected to Miss First Month of the Season
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NY Times: Yankees Capitalize on 2nd Chance With Young Star Who Got Away
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TGS NY: Jobs in jeopardy as Baby Bombers challenge Yankees veterans
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TGS: CC Sabathia after rough outing: ‘The body feels good’
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NY Post: How Gary Sanchez’s amazing feats are raising his ceiling even higher
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Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Monday, January 16, 2017

CAIRO 2017’s First Take at Projecting the Yankees

So I finally got my first set of 2017 CAIRO projections done, which can be downloaded here.

As long-time readers know, CAIRO was only developed so that I could pretend the Yankees are better than they are, for whatever reason that might be.  Unfortunately, it’s gotten harder and harder to keep pretending the Yankees are good.

That being said, things do appear to be getting better, although that likely won’t manifest itself in 2017.  The Yankees have one of the top farm systems in the game, a lot of their bad contracts are falling off the books, and the Yankees have several young players already likely to be playing key roles in the majors this year.

All those young players makes projecting the 2017 Yankees trickier than usual, but projecting is always tricky because it’s such an inexact science.  But let’s take a shot at it with this post. 

First, the position players.

 Team NYY         
 Player  Pos Proj  PA  avg/obp/slg  Outs BR  oWAR Def  pDef
 Jacoby Ellsbury  CF Base  550  .262/.321/.383  372  61  1.6  1   1 
 Brett Gardner  LF Base  575  .259/.337/.393  378  68  1.3  4   4 
 Gary Sanchez  C Base  500  .268/.333/.489  344  70  3.8  5   5 
 Matt Holliday  DH Base  500  .259/.351/.453  337  68  1.3  0   0 
 Greg Bird  1B Base  500  .259/.340/.471  337  69  1.8  0   0 
 Chase Headley  3B Base  575  .253/.328/.384  396  63  1.6  4   4 
 Starlin Castro  2B Base  575  .275/.314/.421  406  65  1.9  -5   -5 
 Aaron Judge  RF Base  500  .254/.340/.461  340  68  2.0  -2   -2 
 Didi Gregorius  SS Base  575  .262/.308/.400  396  62  2.0  -1   -1 
 Starters    4850   3305  593  17.2   6  0 
 Aaron Hicks  OF Base  300  .247/.326/.386  206  33  0.6  0   0 
 Tyler Austin  1B Base  290  .258/.338/.439  198  37  0.8  0   -5 
 Ronald Torreyes  IF Base  200  .256/.307/.361  142  19  0.3  0   0 
 Austin Romine  C Base  120  .242/.293/.396  87  12  0.4  0   0 
 Mason Williams  OF Base  76  .254/.315/.351  53  7  0.0  0   0 
 Ruben Tejada  IF Base  60  .254/.324/.359  41  6  0.1  0   0 
 Clint Frazier  OF Base  20  .246/.321/.424  14  2  0.1  0   0 
 Gleyber Torres  IF Base  5  .248/.313/.385 4   1  0.0  0  0 
 Bench    1071   746  118  2.3  0   0 
 Team Total    5921   4050  710   19.5  6  0 

For reference, an average player generally projects to be worth around 2 WAR.  There’s a whole lot of average projected in that lineup, with only Gary Sanchez comfortably clearing the 2 WAR barrier.  The good news is that if this is what they do next year, the Yankees would score about 710 runs, versus the 680 they scored in 2016.

I don’t have a ton of faith in defensive projections, but I used the average projected UZR and DRS for the starting lineup and assumed the bench would play average defense.

That’s the good news.  The less good news is the pitching staff.

 Player  Role   IP R  HR BB  K RA  ERA FIP  WAR
 Masahiro Tanaka  SP1 Base  175  76  23  34   152  3.93  3.58  3.80  3.6 
 Michael Pineda  SP2 Base  175  83  24  41   180  4.29  4.06  3.71  2.6 
 CC Sabathia  SP3 Base  170  89  24  56   143  4.69  4.41  4.50  1.9 
 Luis Severino  SP4 Base  140  77  17  45   108  4.96  4.59  4.32  1.3 
 Chad Green  SP5 Base  125  76  19  39   92  5.44  4.98  4.73  0.5 
 Bryan Mitchell  SP6 Base  90  59  12  39   61  5.88  5.23  4.98  -0.2 
 Luis Cessa  SP7 Base  70  47  12  21   44  5.99  5.50  5.24  -0.4 
 James Kaprielian  SP8 Base  40  21  5  12   34  4.80  4.43  4.20  0.4 
 Starters    985  528  137  287  814   4.82  4.45  4.32  9.7 
 Aroldis Chapman  CL Base  65  18  3  25   93  2.54  2.29  2.29  1.8 
 Dellin Betances  SU Base  75  23  5  29   116  2.79  2.35  2.29  2.0 
 Tyler Clippard  SU Base  70  33  9  28   70  4.20  3.80  4.23  0.6 
 Adam Warren  MR Base  70  33  8  25   57  4.30  4.00  4.16  0.7 
 Tommy Layne  MR Base  45  20  3  21   39  3.94  3.73  3.94  0.7 
 Chasen Shreve  MR Base  40  21  7  17   39  4.67  4.43  4.83  0.2 
 Ben Heller  MR Base  30  17  4  13   25  4.98  4.58  4.67  0.0 
 Johnny Barbato  MR Base  25  15  4  11   20  5.32  4.92  5.06  -0.2 
 Dietrich Enns  MR Base  15  7  2  6  10   4.29  3.93  4.57  0.8 
 Richard Bleier  MR Base  10  6  1  2  3   5.07  4.60  4.59  -0.1 
 Relievers    445  192  46  177  474   3.89  3.55  3.73  6.6 
 Team Total    1430  720  183  464   1288  4.53  4.17  4.14  16.3 

CAIRO is not particularly fond of the Yankees rotation.  Pineda and Sabathia actually projected a bit better than I expected, but that’s about it.  It really dislikes Chad Green and Luis Cessa.  I expected Green to project a bit better.  Anyway, it likes James Kaprielian more than everyone except the top three starters so maybe he can help out a bit.

The bullpen is also not that impressive after the first two guys.  I’m not a huge Tyler Clippard fan at this stage of his career, and CAIRO apparently agrees.

Using these projections and innings estimates, the Yankees project to allow about 18 more runs than they did last season at 720. 

If the Yankees score 710 runs, allow 720 and play +6 defense, then they’d project to be around a 80-81 win team. 

I should note that these are the baseline projections.  I’ve updated the CAIRO spreadsheet with a team projection tab so you can mess around with playing times and percentile forecasts.  Just keep team total outs to about 4050 and team innings pitched to 1430 to get realistic totals for runs scored and runs allowed.  It will then calculate a winning percentage based on Pythagenpat.

How hard is it to get the Yankees to the 89 wins it took to make the AL wild card game last year?  This would work:

 Player  Pos Proj  PA  avg/obp/slg  Outs BR  oWAR Def  pDef
 Jacoby Ellsbury  CF Base  550  .262/.321/.383  372  61  1.6  1   1 
 Brett Gardner  LF Base  575  .259/.337/.393  378  68  1.3  4   4 
 Gary Sanchez  C 65%   500  .283/.357/.533  335  81  4.9  5   5 
 Matt Holliday  DH 65%   525  .274/.377/.497  344  82  2.5  0   0 
 Greg Bird  1B 65%   525  .273/.364/.514  345  83  3.0  0   0 
 Chase Headley  3B Base  575  .253/.328/.384  396  63  1.6  4   4 
 Starlin Castro  2B Base  575  .275/.314/.421  406  65  1.9  -5   -5 
 Aaron Judge  RF 65%   500  .268/.363/.502  332  77  3.0  -2   -2 
 Didi Gregorius  SS Base  575  .262/.308/.400  396  62  2.0  -1   -1 
 Starters    4900   3304  641  21.8   6  0 
 Aaron Hicks  OF Base  300  .247/.326/.386  206  33  0.6  0   0 
 Tyler Austin  1B Base  290  .258/.338/.439  198  37  0.8  0   -5 
 Ronald Torreyes  IF Base  200  .256/.307/.361  142  19  0.3  0   0 
 Austin Romine  C Base  120  .242/.293/.396  87  12  0.4  0   0 
 Mason Williams  OF Base  76  .254/.315/.351  53  7  0.0  0   0 
 Ruben Tejada  IF Base  60  .254/.324/.359  41  6  0.1  0   0 
 Clint Frazier  OF Base  20  .246/.321/.424  14  2  0.1  0   0 
 Gleyber Torres  IF Base  5  .248/.313/.385 4   1  0.0  0  0 
 Bench    1071   746  118  2.3  0   0 
 Team Total    5971   4050  759   24.0  6  0 

 Player  Role   IP R  HR BB  K RA  ERA FIP  WAR
 Masahiro Tanaka  SP1 65%   175  68  18  29   165  3.48  3.15  3.20  4.5 
 Michael Pineda  SP2 65%   175  74  19  34   194  3.80  3.58  3.05  3.6 
 CC Sabathia  SP3 Base  170  89  24  56   143  4.69  4.41  4.50  1.9 
 Luis Severino  SP4 65%   160  78  15  44   135  4.41  4.07  3.66  2.3 
 Chad Green  SP5 Base  105  64  16  33   77  5.44  4.98  4.73  0.5 
 Bryan Mitchell  SP6 Base  90  59  12  39   61  5.88  5.23  4.98  -0.2 
 Luis Cessa  SP7 Base  70  47  12  21   44  5.99  5.50  5.24  -0.4 
 James Kaprielian  SP8 Base  40  21  5  12   34  4.80  4.43  4.20  0.4 
 Starters    985  499  122  267  853   4.56  4.20  3.98  12.5 
 Aroldis Chapman  CL Base  65  18  3  25   93  2.54  2.29  2.29  1.8 
 Dellin Betances  SU Base  75  23  5  29   116  2.79  2.35  2.29  2.0 
 Tyler Clippard  SU Base  70  33  9  28   70  4.20  3.80  4.23  0.6 
 Adam Warren  MR Base  70  33  8  25   57  4.30  4.00  4.16  0.7 
 Tommy Layne  MR Base  45  20  3  21   39  3.94  3.73  3.94  0.7 
 Chasen Shreve  MR Base  40  21  7  17   39  4.67  4.43  4.83  0.2 
 Ben Heller  MR Base  30  17  4  13   25  4.98  4.58  4.67  0.0 
 Johnny Barbato  MR Base  25  15  4  11   20  5.32  4.92  5.06  -0.2 
 Dietrich Enns  MR Base  15  7  2  6  10   4.29  3.93  4.57  0.8 
 Richard Bleier  MR Base  10  6  1  2  3   5.07  4.60  4.59  -0.1 
 Relievers    445  192  46  177  474   3.89  3.55  3.73  6.6 
 Team Total    1430  691  168  444   1327  4.35  4.00  3.90  19.1 

Is that realistic?  I’m not sure.  But that’s one way to get there.  I’m sure the fine readers of this blog can come up with more.  Just change any fields that are highlighted in yellow to try different permutations of playing times and projection levels.  You can also add any players that have a projection that are not on the Yankees, although their projection will be based on their most recent team.

--Posted at 11:07 am by SG / 19 Comments | - (0)



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