The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Yankees.com: Yanks break out the bats to overpower Bucs
(11 Comments - 4/23/2017 1:42:32 pm)

Yankees (10-6) @ Pirates (7-9), Saturday, 4/22/2017, 04:05p ET
(45 Comments - 4/23/2017 3:26:05 am)

Yankees.com: CC battles, but stuff not sharp vs. Bucs
(3 Comments - 4/22/2017 2:38:30 pm)

Yankees (10-5) @ Pirates (6-9), Friday, 4/21/2017, 07:05p ET
(41 Comments - 4/22/2017 2:01:18 pm)

NY Post: Yankees missed out on A-Rod replacement who’s tearing it up for Brewers
(22 Comments - 4/21/2017 4:27:33 pm)

Yankees.com: 4 homers back Tanaka in homestand finale
(32 Comments - 4/21/2017 9:54:03 am)

White Sox (7-6) @ Yankees (9-5), Wednesday, 4/19/2017, 07:05p ET
(46 Comments - 4/20/2017 9:19:48 am)

Yankees.com: Yanks shut out until 9th; win streak ends at 8
(13 Comments - 4/19/2017 3:25:34 pm)

White Sox (6-6) @ Yankees (9-4), Tuesday, 4/18/2017, 07:05p ET
(41 Comments - 4/19/2017 1:34:59 am)

Yankees.com: They 8 it up: Yanks extend streak with HRs
(29 Comments - 4/18/2017 7:43:35 pm)



Player

Current Projected

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Friday, March 31, 2017

CAIRO 2017’s Final Preseason Projected Standings

With the Yankees opening their 2017 season on Sunday April 2, it’s time for CAIRO to make its final preseason team projection as well as take a stab at the generally futile exercise of projecting the team’s outlook as well as that of every other team in MLB.

I guess the most important place to start with such an exercise is looking at the playing time assumptions.  This is how I allocated playing time among the position players.

 Player  Pos PA  avg/obp/slg  Outs BR  oWAR def
 Brett Gardner LF  575  .259/.337/.395 383  68   1.2  4 
 Jacoby Ellsbury  CF 555  .262/.321/.383  383  62  1.6  1 
 Gary Sanchez C  510  .268/.333/.489 355  72   3.9  0 
 Matt Holliday DH  450  .259/.351/.455 306  61   1.8  0 
 Chase Headley 3B  550  .253/.328/.382 383  61   1.5  4 
 Greg Bird 1B  550  .259/.340/.474 375  76   1.9  0 
 Starlin Castro 2B  575  .275/.314/.423 411  66   1.8  -5 
 Didi Gregorius SS  475  .262/.308/.402 331  52   1.6  1 
 Aaron Judge RF  475  .254/.340/.461 325  65   1.9  0 
 Starters   4715   3252  582   17.2  5 
 Aaron Hicks OF  350  .247/.326/.391 245  39   0.4  1 
 Chris Carter 1B  250  .225/.320/.490 175  34   0.8  0 
 Austin Romine C  175  .242/.293/.389 129  18   0.6  0 
 Ronald Torreyes  IF 175  .256/.307/.358  127  17  0.2  0 
 Rob Refsnyder UT  140  .279/.349/.427 95  18   0.3  0 
 Pete Kozma OF  100  .202/.268/.290 76  7   -0.1  0 
 Bench   1190   848  132   2.3  1 
 Team Total   5905    4100   715  19.5   6 

BR: Linear weights batting runs
oWAR: Position adjusted offensive wins above replacement
def: Estimated defensive runs saved (using a regressed weighted mean of DRS and UZR adjusted for playing time.

This is based on the team adding up to 4100 outs.  No truth to the rumor that Pete Kozma will be providing 4000 of those. 

For the sake of context, last year’s Yankee team hit .252/.314/.405 and scored 680 runs.  This year’s version using these assumptions would hit around .260/.327/.423 and score 715.  It helps that four of the five players who were their worst offensive producers last year ignoring position are gone (Dustin Ackley, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira).  It also helps that last year’s worst offensive producer (Aaron Hicks) is projected to be at least a little bit better.  I’m not sure I believe it, but I don’t like to argue with CAIRO because he gets grumpy.

A 35 run improvement is obviously good news, and with young players like Sanchez, Bird, Gregorius (when back from his injury), Castro (if he stops swinging at every single pitch), Judge and Kozma, there’s a lot of potential upside here.  There’s even more that I didn’t bother listing in the minors, with other young players knocking on the door such as Clint Frazier, Kyle Higashioka and possibly Gleyber Torres later in the year to name three.

I suppose it’s worth nothing that the average AL team scored 732 runs last year, so even 715 isn’t a great offense by any means.  But it’s getting better, and will be even better if they can figure out how to disappear their fifth worst offensive producer in 2017 from CF. 

Last year’s team was about average defensively according to UZR and DRS.  CAIRO thinks they’ll be a bit better than that this year.

Anyway, the good news when projecting the 2017 Yankees is the improvement of the offense.  If onlly the pitching forecast was so sanguine…

 Pitcher  IP R  RA ERA  FIP WAR
 Masahiro Tanaka 174   76  3.93  3.58  3.80  3.6 
 Michael Pineda 160   76  4.29  4.06  3.71  2.7 
 CC Sabathia 150  78   4.69  4.41  4.50  1.8 
 Luis Severino 120   66  4.96  4.59  4.32  1.1 
 Jordan Montgomery 120   64  4.83  4.41  4.45  1.3 
 Chad Green 100  60   5.44  4.98  4.73  0.3 
 Bryan Mitchell 61   40  5.88  5.23  4.98  -0.1 
 Luis Cessa 40  27   5.99  5.50  5.24  0 
 Starters 925   488  4.75  4.38   4.29  11 
 Aroldis Chapman 70   20  2.54  2.29  2.29  2 
 Dellin Betances 80   25  2.79  2.35  2.29  2.1 
 Tyler Clippard 70   33  4.20  3.80  4.23  0.7 
 Adam Warren 80  38   4.30  4.00  4.16  0.7 
 Tommy Layne 50  22   3.94  3.73  3.94  0.6 
 Chasen Shreve 40  21   4.67  4.43  4.83  0.2 
 Johnny Barbato 30   18  5.32  4.92  5.06  -0.1 
 Ben Heller 25  14   4.98  4.58  4.67  0 
 Jonathan Holder 25   14  4.89  4.47  4.35  0 
 Tyler Jones 25  12   4.14  3.78  3.37  0 
 Domingo German 10  7   5.95  5.45  5.25  0 
 Relievers 505   221  3.95  3.61   3.72  7 
 Team Total  1430  709   4.46  4.11   4.09  17 

The biggest potential issue impeding the Yankees’ postseason aspirations this year is the starting rotation.  Masahiro Tanaka is a legitimate top of the rotation starter. but after that it’s a whole lot of uncertainty.  You can squint and see a scenario where Michael Pineda pitches to his peripherals and pitches better than he has, but I wouldn’t count on it.  I think CC is cooked and his projection is ridiculous, but maybe he will surprise me.  I think Severino will flash good and bad, but I just don’t know which will happen more frequently.  I’d like to think some of the other guys on the outside of the rotation looking in can help at some point, but after Jordan Montgomery none of the projections inspire confidence.  Luckily, forecasting pitchers is hard and there’s a chance CAIRO could be completely wrong on some of them.

The bullpen should be pretty good if they can ever get handed a lead.  Obviously Chapman and Betances are elite.  I’m not a giant Tyler Clippard fan but as your third reliever you could do a lot worse, and Adam Warren should be pretty good in the middle.  I feel the Yankees need a lefty better than Layne and Shreve but it’s not critical right now.  I assume they’ll be rotating through the righty relievers from Barbato, Heller, Holder, Jones and German based on performance and whenever they need a fresh arm or two.

Anyway, if you use these depth charts, you get a team that would score about 715 runs and allow 709.  Say they save an additional six on defense.  That gives them an estimated Pythagenpat winning percentage of .507, or 82 wins. 

The next step is to take this team though some season simulations.  I first ran 10,000 simulations using Diamond Mind baseball and then ran another 990,000 using the results from that through my Monte Carlo simulator.  So what does that tell us?

 Date  3/30/2017           
 Iterations  1000000             
 American League              
 TM W  L RS  RA Div  WC1 WC2  PS% W+/-
 Red Sox 93  69   745  637  48.1%  13.0%  8.8%   69.9% 83-103
 Blue Jays 86  76   743  698  22.0%  12.6%  10.2%   44.8% 76-95
 Yankees 84  78   726  723  14.0%  9.4%  8.9%   32.4% 74-93
 Rays 79  83   676  686  9.1%  6.7%  7.1%   22.9% 69-88
 Orioles 78  84   703  739  6.8%  5.3%  6.0%   18.0% 68-88
 TM W  L RS  RA Div  WC WC2  PS% W+/-
 Indians 93  69   815  708  62.0%  7.4%  6.0%   75.4% 83-103
 Tigers 80  82   742  752  14.8%  7.5%  7.5%   29.8% 70-90
 Royals 78  84   676  720  9.7%  5.2%  5.8%   20.7% 68-87
 Twins 76  86   756  799  9.2%  5.0%  5.7%   19.9% 66-86
 White Sox 72  90   697  782  4.3%  2.4%  3.3%   10.0% 62-82
 TM W  L RS  RA Div  WC WC2  PS% W+/-
 Astros 82  80   743  720  27.7%  6.2%  7.7%   41.6% 73-92
 Rangers 81  81   746  743  23.5%  5.7%  6.7%   36.0% 72-91
 Angels 80  82   696  706  18.0%  4.9%  6.0%   28.9% 70-89
 Mariners 79  83   735  745  17.8%  4.8%  6.0%   28.6% 69-88
 Athletics 77  85   667  699  13.1%  3.8%  5.1%   22.0% 67-87
 National League              
 TM W  L RS  RA Div  WC WC2  PS% W+/-
 Nationals 94  68   766  656  60.9%  7.6%  6.5%   75.1% 84-103
 Mets 83  79   705  685  20.3%  9.2%  9.2%   38.8% 74-93
 Marlins 77  85   671  706  8.8%  4.7%  6.0%   19.4% 67-87
 Phillies 74  88   635  698  5.3%  2.8%  4.1%   12.2% 64-84
 Braves 73  89   668  733  4.7%  2.6%  3.7%   11.0% 63-82
 TM W  L RS  RA Div  WC WC2  PS% W+/-
 Cubs 94  68   757  643  52.9%  11.9%  8.6%   73.5% 85-104
 Cardinals 86  76   690  645  22.2%  12.2%  10.8%   45.3% 77-96
 Pirates 85  77   701  667  18.9%  11.1%  10.5%   40.5% 75-95
 Brewers 74  88   701  753  4.4%  3.3%  4.6%   12.3% 64-84
 Reds 68  94   694  807  1.5%  1.1%  1.9%   4.4% 58-78
 TM W  L RS  RA Div  WC WC2  PS% W+/-
 Dodgers 94  68   741  637  54.8%  9.9%  7.9%   72.6% 84-103
 Giants 86  76   720  678  24.5%  11.3%  10.2%   45.9% 76-95
 Rockies 80  82   767  784  11.0%  6.3%  7.6%   24.9% 70-89
 Diamondbacks 75  87   706  748  6.6%  4.0%  5.4%   15.9% 66-85
 Padres 71  91   666  755  3.1%  2.0%  3.1%   8.2% 61-81

W: Projected final 2017 wins
L: Projected final 2017 losses
RS: Projected final 2017 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2017 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

The simulations give the Yankees a couple of more wins than the spreadsheet projection, despite a slightly worse run differential.  This is most likely due to it deploying the relievers in a way that maximizes their value as opposed to a spreadsheet that just adds up runs scored and runs allowed.

Based on these, the Yankees have about a 14% chance at the AL East division title, and a one in three chances at qualifying for the postseason.  That feels about right to me.

As for the rest of the divisions, I don’t see anything really strange aside from how closely bunched the AL West came out.  I’d expected a bit more separation in there than that.  I also don’t think the Nationals are as good as the Cubs.  The Dodgers could be, but I doubt it.

Anyway, enjoy the last pre-season game tonight.  The Yankees have finalized their opening day roster. and we’ll have real baseball on Sunday!

--Posted at 9:13 am by SG / 52 Comments | - (0)



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