Minor League Update With Mike and Clay

Some of you may have noticed that I recently picked up a lightning bolt without any obvious reason. Let me tell you a tale that may or may not explain why I now am amongst the pantheon of RLYW gods (it will explain). A few days ago I was looking for someone I could disagree with on a regular basis, but I had more than this simple requirement. Not only did I need to have disagreement, it needed to be rather minor, meaningless and generally shaded by slightly different expectations. So I settled on Yankees prospects and handpicked Mike K. as my mortal enemy/debate partner. Then I talked to him and SG about putting together some more regular MiL content for you fine gentlemen, women of ill repute, convicts and 400lb rednecks named Bubba. Shockingly, both parties were interested. So Mike and I will be periodically (monthly for now) providing MiL insights and updates.

Since Mike and I have dropped pretty comprehensive updates for AAA, AA, and A ball in the last week or so, we are going to forgo the general update and instead bring you guys closer to a few of the lesser known prospects. Initially, I wanted to choose Betances, but after a long crying session and a few beers I decided to choose someone else. I settled upon Jake Cave. Who is Jake Cave you say? Well that’s exactly why Mike and I are going to be doing these posts. I want to call them, “Get to Know A Yankee Prospect, Or How to Have Your Heart Broken By A 20-Something-Year-Old You’ve Never Met.” The title might need work, but I don’t want to hear anything about it from the peanut gallery. -Clay

So the other day, Clay (a very snuggly porcupine if there ever was one) sent me a note wondering if I would be interested in collaborating with him, to share our knowledge of Yankees’ prospects! So my first thought was, I better get some knowledge of Yankee prospects!  We decided that at this point we want go a little off the beaten path, maybe go with some prospects that aren’t quite as well known. I was originally going to pick Dante Bichette, Jr. But then I remembered Snuggles said prospects. So instead I’ll go with Bryan Mitchell. - Mike

Get To Know Jake Cave, Or How To Have Your Heart Broken By A 20-Something-Year-Old You’ve Never Met

Jake Cave is a nice guy, he’s nice and kind and nice* and he has a kitten^ (maybe more than one kitten), although it’s probably not a cool as Cat Latos. He’s handsome and nice and he has a sweet batman bike. Also, he’s pretty damn good at baseball, so good at baseball that the Yankees drafted him in the 6th round (he was being looked at as a compensation/2nd round talent) of the 2011 draft and signed him to a way above slot 800K (The second largest bonus they dished out that year). Cave is so good at baseball that he was named the top prospect Coastal Plains League prior to signing with the Yankees. When I read this I was like “What? The Coastal Plains League? What the Hell is that?” So I did some research, and it turns out the CPL is a wooden bat league inhabited mostly by baseball gnomes and college players (think of it as a lesser Cape Cod League). Jake was 18 and had just graduated high school, that’s pretty good.

Jake signed on the deadline and was eventually assigned to the GCL Yankees. Everything was fluffy clouds, ginger snaps, cute kittens and rose colored glasses for the 6 foot, 180 pound teenager and expectations were high. However, there were clouds on the horizon, hell they weren’t even on the horizon, they were right there in his face like the mist from Stephen King’s “The Mist.” Cave’s first professional game was disastrous. Not only did he go hitless (0-1 with a walk) but in a Heathcottian (Heathcottish?) move he broke his kneecap in a collision at home with the enemy catcher. They say it was a harrowing hour plus battle, nearly to the death, and that Cave fought valiantly. OK, no one says that, he just busted up his knee in a collision with the opposing catcher (incidentally, full contact collisions are a dumb thing in baseball).

After an offseason of recovery, rehab and anticipation Jake Cave was ready to unleash his baseball skills upon a MiL baseball league (most likely the GCL again). However, fate, as determined by an ancient Gypsy curse upon his family (Dude, Gypsy is not the preferred nomenclature. Rebuttal: Roma curse sounds dumb, shut up), had something else to say about that plan. In his first Extended Spring Training appearance, something went terribly wrong and he was unable to put weight on his bad knee when trying to run to first. A crack team of surgeons, plastic surgeons, heart surgeons and geologists inspected his re-injured leg and found that his kneecap had not healed properly and was still broken. Surgery was the only answer, and it knocked him out for the 2012 season.

It’s now 2013 (just in case you are confused or have recently emerged from a magical board game) and Jake Cave is finally healthy, and more importantly he has played in more than 1 game, in fact as of the writing of this piece, he’s successfully completed 12 games! In those 12 games his line is .283/.339/.377, with 4 walks and 11 strikeouts, he also has 4 extra base hits, 3 doubles and a triple and is 1 for 2 in stolen base attempts. Now these numbers aren’t mindblowing, but keep in mind he’s a 20 year old playing what is essentially his first professional baseball, so it’s actually pretty impressive, especially since he’s doing it in Charleston (A ball), not in the GCL.

Since there’s not a ton to talk about in regards to Cave’s professional numbers, I’m instead going to focus on the scouting reports. Cave is as close to a 5 tool athlete a team can expect to get in the 6th round. Prior to his injury, Jake graded out with plus speed, plus hit tool, average power, plus defense, and a near elite level arm (he threw in the low to mid 90s from the left side as a pitcher in HS). He also complimented his raw talent with a strong work ethic and aggressive playing style.

As a hitter, Cave’s projections haven’t changed significantly since his injury. He boasts above average to plus contact skills, combining good (sometimes described as great) bat speed with a solid approach at the plate and good pitch recognition for his age and experience. He’s not a pull hitter, patiently waiting for his pitch and spraying to all fields. The only gap in Cave’s skill set is his power and power potential. Jake is never going to be a masher, right now his power looks to be only average (primarily gap power), although as he matures and adjusts he may be able to parlay his contact skills and bat speed into above average power. Prior to his injury, Cave looked to make up his lack of HR power with doubles and triples coming from his speed and aggressive play.

Cave’s speed also indicated that he would be a plus on the base paths and eventually, after learning the nuances and honing his instincts also be a base stealing threat. He was aggressive on the paths before and mostly needed refinement to get the most out of his plus speed. Defensively Cave doesn’t have a ton to learn, due to his elite level instincts supplemented by his plus speed. In fact, prior to breaking his kneecap (twice), Cave might have been the 3rd best defensive CF in the Yankees system, which doesn’t sound too great until you realize that he’s being compared to Heathcott and Williams, two players with elite speed and strong/elite instincts. In many ways, he is the nearly perfect combination of the two, combining Heathcott’s all-out defensive play with Williams’ elite instincts, only missing their elite level speed. He looked to be an above average to plus CF at the MLB level with an elite level arm.

Basically Jake Cave looks awesome. Recap: Above average to plus hit tool with average to slightly above average power, plus base-running, above average to plus defense with an elite arm with a strong make-up and aggressive style which could combine to make his whole greater than the parts. Sadly, things are not so simple, Jake Cave suffered a pretty significant injury and despite being aged 20, has nearly no professional experience. Simply put, no one knows how his speed has been and will be impacted by his surgically repaired kneecap and lost development time is never good.

Given his plus level speed before his unfortunate encounter with gypsy curses/opposing catchers, many believe that the worst case scenario is that he ends up being only average in the speed department. That’s not the worst case scenario, the worst case scenario is that he is eaten by a large monitor lizard that eventually mutates into a Godzilla like creature and rampages through Miami before eventually being stopped by giant robots who in turn rebel against their creators and begin the 1000 year rule of the machines, but I digress. Fortunately, while Cave’s aggressiveness got him into this mess, it also aids him if his speed truly degrades that much and should allow his possibly average speed to play up.

I’m going to ignore the obvious washout floor of every baseball prospect, because you should know, that is always a significant possibility. I’m looking at ceilings here, if his injury ends up being a non-factor, it’s possible to see Cave as a future average to above average to plus CF with an elite level with 20/20 power/speed and the ability to shut down extra bases with his arm, in other words a very good player with some all-star potential. If he ends up in a corner, he’s a plus fielder with an elite level arm and slightly below average offensive production for a corner, we’re talking 4 wins vs. 2.5 wins. If his speed degrades, things aren’t so nice. He probably couldn’t cover CF and would be closer to an above average corner OF defender and if his power stays were it is, his power/speed potential is more like 10-15/10 with full playing time. However, he would be unlikely to get a full time job and would probably top out as a backup OF who could fake CF from time to time, with some potential to be a lower tier starter, more like a 1.5 win player.

I find Jake Cave to be intriguing because we know so little about him, but the potential is enticing.  Being so untested, we can only take what we know from his scouting reports and from how the Yankees are treating him. The fact that the Yankees are sending Cave to A ball after 2 previous professional plate appearances, speaks to how highly they think of his raw talent and ability to adjust and learn. They clearly believe that he is not as far behind as his lack of professional experience might suggest, and so far he is making them look smart. I’m going to keep an eye out for updated scouting reports on his baseball skills (He hasn’t played in over a year) and most importantly his speed, and how it has been impacted by his broken knee (I have no idea how it might impact speed or not impact speed). He might be the best Yankees OF prospect aside from the 4 split between A+ and AA. Cave has some great upside, but it’s important to remember he is only in A ball and a lot can go wrong on the long road to the majors, and given his pretty major injury, it may already have.

I’ll leave you with this short, optimistic blurb on Jake Cave, which puts his pre-injury tools into some more familiar context: “Imagine having the intensity of Slade Heathcott, the makeup of David Adams, the hitting consistency of Ramon Flores and the overall tool-set of Angelo Gumbs, and that’s what you have with Cave.”

Tool	Current Grade	Future Grade
Hit	5	6
Power	5	5.5
Speed	6	6
Defense	6	6.5
Arm	7	7

* Jake Cave may not be nice or kind

^all references to Jake Cave’s kitten are pure speculation

 

Introducing: Bryan Mitchell

Drafted out of High School in North Carolina in the 16th round of the 2009 draft, the Yankees paid Mitchell $800k in order to break his commitment to college.  Standing 6’2”, and currently weighing in at 195lbs (up 20lbs from high school), the 22 year old Mitchell still has some projection left.  He currently throws a sinking fastball in the mid-90’s, regularly posting GB rates north of 50%.  When he was drafted he had a power-slider, but it looks like he ditched it (no surprise with the Yankees).  He now instead throws a hard curve, and in fact BA listed him as having the best curve in the Yankee farm-system in 2012.  He also throws a change-up, but I can’t find anything on it above, “developing”.  I consulted my super-secret, prospecting handbook and found that means “bad”.

Mitchell has developed slowly and is in Tampa this year at the age of 22.  Not old for his league per-se – especially for a pitcher – but older than you’d like for a prospect.  So far his numbers in the minors can be described as “middling”.  His FIP has consistently ranked between 3.88 (this year) and 4.09.  His ERA is a career low 3.08 this year compared to a career high 4.58 (other than 4 innings in Staten Island in 2010).  The difference in his diverging ERA and consistent FIP is…not BABIP.  Not much anyway.  It’s LOB%, ranging between 57.8% and 74.5%.  But some of the places you can look most for minor league pitchers is in K and BB rates.  His K-rate has been consistently getting better going from 7.7/9 to 8.6 to 9.1 (K% 20.7 to 21.5 to 22.8).  Unfortunately, his BB have gone up at the same time, topping out last year at 5.4/9 (!).  So far this year both his K and BB numbers are down, but ratio is the similar to what he’s been other years (between 1.6-1.7).

That’s basically been the story on Mitchell – knockout stuff, but not much ability to command it.  This is a big year for him, as you want to see him start to use his stuff to dominate A-ball hitters, and make the leap up to AA.  There have also been some reports of him having maturity issues, but I always take those with a grain of salt. With Mitchell, you dream he becomes Chien-Ming Wang with strikeouts (also known as Kevin Brown).  More likely, you hope for AJ Burnett.  However, he definitely has the stuff, and maybe if he can’t command it he could still transition to the bullpen.  This is a big year for Mitchell, and one where he can reward the Yankees for overpaying him in the draft, or become the latest in an – unfortunately – long line of Yankee pitching prospects who failed to realize their potential.

Tool	Current Grade	Future Grade
Fastball	6	6
Curveball	7	7
Change up	4	5
Control	3	5
Command	3	4.5

 

Conclusionary section

This is our first attempt at this, so please shower us with criticism or praise. We are more than open to suggestions of more stuff you would like to see, players you would like us to cover and anything else you can think of. Please use this thread as an discussion about said prospects and ideas/responses to the new MiL content and format. However, in the future please PM us in regards to future topics you’d like to see so that we don’t contaminate the other threads too much. Hope you enjoyed the content and I hope we can continue to provide some interesting and entertaining looks at the Yankees MiL system.

Clay “Snuggles” Hoadley and Mike “Mike K.”. K.

P.S. Mike is going to be busy over the next two months with his wedding and subsequent honeymoon, so I’ll do my best to provide what content I can until he returns and we can iron out our content and schedule. - Clay

P.P.S. I’m sure I’ll have time to add the occasional bit of irrational optimism, or maybe even an entire paragraph.  Especially an update for any games I get too.  Which I’ll try to announce ahead of time if anyone has a particular player to watch out for. - Mike