Monday, January 28, 2013
CAIRO 2013 v0.3 and Still Too Early and Mostly Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings
I figured it was about time for an update to CAIRO, so here it is. The spreadsheet can be download via the following link:
Update: CAIRO v0.5 is now available
As far as what’s changed, not a ton aside from moving players to new teams but there are a couple of updates.
- Added Hiroyuki Nakajima and Ryu Hyun-jin
- Found major problems with Carlos Gonzalez’s projection (apparently there are about 50 Carlos Gonzalezs playing professional baseball) and corrected them
- Fixed some playing time issues with a few players
Things like wins/losses and saves haven’t been adjusted for team strength and expected roles so those will change as we get closer to the start of the season. Other than that most changes should be limited to fixing any other errors I find or moving players to new teams.
Here’s how this update sees the projected standings as of this morning. Rosters are current through all moves as of last night.
| Date | 1/28/2013 | |||||||
| Iterations | 100000 | |||||||
| American League | ||||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% |
| Blue Jays | 91 | 71 | 809 | 720 | 31.0% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 51.1% |
| Rays | 88 | 74 | 709 | 641 | 24.8% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 44.0% |
| Yankees | 87 | 75 | 778 | 735 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 41.6% |
| Red Sox | 83 | 79 | 811 | 796 | 14.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 29.4% |
| Orioles | 76 | 86 | 726 | 782 | 6.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 14.9% |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% |
| Tigers | 89 | 73 | 800 | 717 | 44.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 58.0% |
| Royals | 82 | 80 | 724 | 715 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 37.0% |
| White Sox | 78 | 84 | 731 | 770 | 16.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 26.7% |
| Indians | 74 | 88 | 703 | 761 | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 17.0% |
| Twins | 67 | 95 | 695 | 830 | 4.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 7.7% |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% |
| Angels | 93 | 69 | 759 | 636 | 43.2% | 12.8% | 9.0% | 65.1% |
| Rangers | 90 | 72 | 797 | 719 | 31.1% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 54.7% |
| Athletics | 86 | 76 | 720 | 679 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 44.1% |
| Mariners | 67 | 95 | 635 | 748 | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 6.3% |
| Astros | 61 | 101 | 663 | 871 | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.5% |
| National League | ||||||||
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% |
| Nationals | 93 | 69 | 702 | 586 | 47.8% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 65.7% |
| Braves | 86 | 76 | 677 | 640 | 26.9% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 45.3% |
| Phillies | 81 | 81 | 661 | 671 | 15.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 31.7% |
| Mets | 72 | 90 | 661 | 728 | 5.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 12.9% |
| Marlins | 69 | 93 | 616 | 721 | 4.0% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 8.4% |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% |
| Reds | 90 | 72 | 739 | 659 | 38.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 55.0% |
| Cardinals | 87 | 75 | 696 | 650 | 30.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 47.4% |
| Brewers | 79 | 83 | 708 | 736 | 13.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 25.2% |
| Pirates | 78 | 84 | 670 | 688 | 11.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 22.8% |
| Cubs | 73 | 89 | 641 | 706 | 6.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 13.4% |
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% |
| Giants | 89 | 73 | 668 | 602 | 30.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 48.4% |
| Dodgers | 88 | 74 | 681 | 611 | 29.0% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 46.8% |
| Diamondbacks | 85 | 77 | 702 | 663 | 21.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 38.1% |
| Padres | 80 | 82 | 661 | 662 | 13.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 27.3% |
| Rockies | 72 | 90 | 767 | 871 | 5.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 11.5% |
W: Projected final 2013 wins
L: Projected final 2013 losses
RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
As the title says, this is still too early and mostly useless. So view them in that way.
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